2 yr ................99 30/32..............4.40%
5 yr ..............100 3/32 ...............4.35%
10 yr .............100 28/32.............4.38%
30 yr ..............112 15/32 .............4.53%
The above chart is the price quote for the U.S. Treasury bond market for December 30, 2005. The third column to the right denotes the bond yield percentage.
There are a couple of things that should jump out at you.
The first is that despite the fact that we are at war in two countries, we have a large balance of payments deficit and we are running pretty significant budget deficits, yet the yield on the thirty year Treasury bond is at 4.53%.
By historical standards this is below average and by itself would indicate a couple of important things. First and foremost is that people who buy this investment instrument continue to believe that it is the safest fixed income vehicle in the world, that the 4.53% yield meets expectations over that length of time and that most importantly, inflation is sufficiently controlled as to make that yield attractive for continued investment.
The next item of interest is that the two year yield is at 4.40 which is higher than both the 5 year and ten year bond. This is called inversion of the yield curve. Since the 30 year is only 13 points higher than the 2 year it is also possible that the two might invert against the 30 as well.
The significance of this as a harbinger of economic events to come should not be over looked. The last five recessions in the United States have been preceded by this event. This in and of itself is not the sole factor in an economic slowdown however by its appearance so frequently before bad turns for the economy it should not be downplayed.
The most recent occurrence was in 2000. The Fed operating under the perceived threat of inflation continued to ramp up short term rates up to near 6.50% until eventually the short yield inverted against the thirty year bond by almost 50 points. The recession that followed forced the Fed to reverse policy and they frantically began to cut rates to again re-invigorate the economy. The whole process was exacerbated by the events of 9/11.
With the U.S people and economy in shock, the Fed reacted by reducing short term rates to levels not seen in our lifetime. The results really should not be a shock to any of us. The availability of very cheap money spurred a housing boom that resulted in more people in all economic strata owning homes than anytime in American history. The low cost of money also spurred a significant increase in all forms of American consumer debt. Home mortgages, car loans and the despicable credit card debt have all sky rocketed.
The inversion of the yield curve is an ominous development for those people who took advantage of those low prices for money but for reasons unknown did not lock those low rates in.
Just as there was an enormous boom in these areas we may now be likely to experience an enormous bust. With variable rate debt vehicles rising with each Fed increase in short terms rates the monthly debt repayment burden has increased on the American consumer. Soon to be instituted minimum monthly payment increases on credit card debt will only exacerbate this problem.
If the Fed continues to raise rates the impact will reverberate throughout the US economy. American auto makers are teetering on disaster and rising rates have contributed to that problem. The housing market over the past two months has shown significant weakness and mortgage default is up. A trickle will turn into a torrent if the Fed persists.
Alan Greenspan has been widely praised for his management of the nation’s monetary system since his rise to the post of Chairman of the Federal Reserve. It would be a shame that on his way out the door, his lasting legacy is one of a significant economic bust precipitated by an over aggressive Fed worried about non existent inflation.
Saturday, December 31, 2005
Monday, December 26, 2005
Owning a bathroom scale
A guy asks his wife what she wants for Christmas and she says "something that goes from zero to sixty real fast." He finds himself in the dog house after he buys her a bathroom scale.
It was after hearing this joke and reading an article that people who own a scale are "much more likely to lose weight and keep it off" if they actually step on it, that I asked for one for Christmas. We haven't had one in the house for about 20 years after a seemingly minor encounter with my wife. I happened to step on the scale and was offended by it's report. When I went down stairs I mentioned to her that the scale had to be broken because it was giving me an erroneous number (on the high side). She said "nonsense, there is nothing wrong with that scale."
Later on I heard a muffled cry from upstairs and needless to say that scale was never seen nor heard from again. So here we are 20 years later and it is out of necessity that I welcome one back into castle.
The necessity is as a result of the food coma that I get into around this time of year. It starts at Thanksgiving and then over the next 45 days or so it is one food orgy after another culminating in some New Year's Eve resolution about having to slim down.
I looked back in my journal over the past few years and my resolution strangely enough is exactly the same. I weigh 208 and my goal is to get down to a svelte 190. I start off January 1 all full of resolve and determination but by the time I come full circle I am back to exactly the same weight I started at.
So this year I am trying something a little different. Instead of waiting for the new year I started the day after Christmas. Instead of hitting the gym and figuring I am making progresss I now have a little square box with numbers to verify what my progress is. The next change is no more weights at the gym. From now on it is going to be something that makes me breathe hard and break a sweat. I deduced that this might have some merit when I tried to follow a little bit of instruction from a Pilates for Dummies video that was gathering dust on my shelf. The instructress witch had me slumped over on the couch gasping for air after about 15 minutes.
I will try this method for now and see what result it brings. I am not quite desperate enough yet to actually consider eating less.
It was after hearing this joke and reading an article that people who own a scale are "much more likely to lose weight and keep it off" if they actually step on it, that I asked for one for Christmas. We haven't had one in the house for about 20 years after a seemingly minor encounter with my wife. I happened to step on the scale and was offended by it's report. When I went down stairs I mentioned to her that the scale had to be broken because it was giving me an erroneous number (on the high side). She said "nonsense, there is nothing wrong with that scale."
Later on I heard a muffled cry from upstairs and needless to say that scale was never seen nor heard from again. So here we are 20 years later and it is out of necessity that I welcome one back into castle.
The necessity is as a result of the food coma that I get into around this time of year. It starts at Thanksgiving and then over the next 45 days or so it is one food orgy after another culminating in some New Year's Eve resolution about having to slim down.
I looked back in my journal over the past few years and my resolution strangely enough is exactly the same. I weigh 208 and my goal is to get down to a svelte 190. I start off January 1 all full of resolve and determination but by the time I come full circle I am back to exactly the same weight I started at.
So this year I am trying something a little different. Instead of waiting for the new year I started the day after Christmas. Instead of hitting the gym and figuring I am making progresss I now have a little square box with numbers to verify what my progress is. The next change is no more weights at the gym. From now on it is going to be something that makes me breathe hard and break a sweat. I deduced that this might have some merit when I tried to follow a little bit of instruction from a Pilates for Dummies video that was gathering dust on my shelf. The instructress witch had me slumped over on the couch gasping for air after about 15 minutes.
I will try this method for now and see what result it brings. I am not quite desperate enough yet to actually consider eating less.
Saturday, December 24, 2005
Leaks are good for Bush
Classified information in Washington is more or less currency to be used by politicians as a way to curry favor with media or business or any other place that it might be used to propel them into ever more "important" positions. This is of course is not limited to Washington, anywhere people congregate and vie for power there will always be the manipulation of information for selfish interests. Machiavelli is still a household word in politics over 400 years later for a reason.
The opposite is also true in that leaks are made to denigrate the opposition, place blame or simply shift media focus on to some other story du jour. If that is the intention of the leakers of late with the story about CIA flights, government wire taps and now the radiation surveillance program, they should start thinking twice about hurting the Bush administration with this information.
The most recent leaked story which should help to propel the Bush approval ratings higher was printed in U.S. News and World Report Friday. An exclusive headline blared that the government was monitoring for radiation near Muslim sites without a search warrant. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/nest/051222nest.htm
The article raises questions as to whether or not a warrant should be issued to monitor public and private areas for radiation. The article brings up a case involving lamps for the growing of marijuana in which Justice Scalia opined that warrants were necessary for such activity.
Pardon me if I suggest that radiation detection is a galaxy away in importance. I care if my neighbor gets pinched for growing some weed in his cellar by a helicopter flying over his house. I don't care if a radical is captured for possessing material that might be used in construction of a dirty bomb. If his civil rights have been violated we can certainly adjudicate that subject after he is in custody and his materials confiscated.
I am similarly not to concerned in this case with profiling. I want the government profiling any individual or group of individuals who has privately or publicly stated their interest or intention to acquire nuclear materials for the purposes of unleashing it upon our populace. Any person in government who argues against this type of strategy should not be trusted with anything to important.
This type of thinking must resonate with the rest of the public because since the revelations by the NY Times, Bush's poll numbers have been rising steadily, If it was their intention to damage him, they may have unwittingly given him a boost he otherwise might not have gotten. So to with this new report. As soon as I read it I thought to myself that is exactly what I would want done if I was the boss. A few more leaks like this and Bush will be at 60%.
The opposite is also true in that leaks are made to denigrate the opposition, place blame or simply shift media focus on to some other story du jour. If that is the intention of the leakers of late with the story about CIA flights, government wire taps and now the radiation surveillance program, they should start thinking twice about hurting the Bush administration with this information.
The most recent leaked story which should help to propel the Bush approval ratings higher was printed in U.S. News and World Report Friday. An exclusive headline blared that the government was monitoring for radiation near Muslim sites without a search warrant. http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/nest/051222nest.htm
The article raises questions as to whether or not a warrant should be issued to monitor public and private areas for radiation. The article brings up a case involving lamps for the growing of marijuana in which Justice Scalia opined that warrants were necessary for such activity.
Pardon me if I suggest that radiation detection is a galaxy away in importance. I care if my neighbor gets pinched for growing some weed in his cellar by a helicopter flying over his house. I don't care if a radical is captured for possessing material that might be used in construction of a dirty bomb. If his civil rights have been violated we can certainly adjudicate that subject after he is in custody and his materials confiscated.
I am similarly not to concerned in this case with profiling. I want the government profiling any individual or group of individuals who has privately or publicly stated their interest or intention to acquire nuclear materials for the purposes of unleashing it upon our populace. Any person in government who argues against this type of strategy should not be trusted with anything to important.
This type of thinking must resonate with the rest of the public because since the revelations by the NY Times, Bush's poll numbers have been rising steadily, If it was their intention to damage him, they may have unwittingly given him a boost he otherwise might not have gotten. So to with this new report. As soon as I read it I thought to myself that is exactly what I would want done if I was the boss. A few more leaks like this and Bush will be at 60%.
Wednesday, December 21, 2005
Another hole to fill
It was disappointing to see that Johnny Damon has joined the evil empire. Disappointing but not wholly unexpected since Johnny was on record as saying there was “not going to be any home town discount.” When all was said and done it was simply logic that turned Damon into a now loyal Yankee.
The signing sweepstakes had gotten off to a slow start after Damon’s agent Scott Boras had talked about a 7 year deal for the 32 year old outfielder. That proposal got about what you expected, a lot of laughing and no firm offers. Things took a turn for the worse for Damon over the weekend when after being on the West Coast; he was quoted as saying the Dodgers had interest.” Unfortunately the Dodgers were saying the exact opposite.
That brought us to the current situation where it was reported the Yankees would offer 4 years and 53 million but not a day beyond four years. The deal was a take it or leave it situation and since Boras and Damon could look manly going to the Yankees for less than hoped, they could not or would not do the same with the Sox unless another magic year showed up.
There can be no denying that this is a blow to the Sox in a number of different areas. Damon was a good club house guy, a very good leadoff hitter and one of the few on the team with any speed. He was a better than average defensive outfielder although his arm was no better than Bernie Williams. There are a couple of questions about his banged up shoulders but apparently not enough for the Yankees to be worried.
The already terrifying Yankee lineup becomes even more so with Damon leading off in front of Jeter followed by Sheffield, ARod, Matsui, Jiambi, Posada and Cano. It should be remembered however that there still is the reason why the season is played. In case anyone hasn’t noticed, the Yankees are sporting a 200 million plus payroll yet they have no banners since 2000. The lineup looks potent but they still have to pitch the ball every game. Johnny won’t be helping them in that department.
So it looks a little bleak for the moment and the empire is on the tip of everyone’s tongues. The fans will curse management’s ineptitude and Damon’s lack of loyalty but nobody ever won a world series in December and this deal is not likely to be the one that makes the Yanks an odds on favorite.
This was your typical mercenary type deal. Damon would play for the biggest money and if that happened to have come from Toledo he would have been expressing his happiness on becoming a Mud Hen and profess his ever lasting admiration for them.
The Sox have some money to spend and some excess pitching. With holes at shortstop and centerfield you can bet something will be done shortly. In any event, the sun will rise and the sun will set and some lucky guy will get a lot of money to “feed his family” to play centerfield in Fenway. He will be happy to be a Red Sock until he is happier to receive more money somewhere else.
Saturday, December 17, 2005
The news wasn't bad
I was anxious to get hold of the Boston Globe on Friday morning to catch up on the results of the Iraqi election. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to conclude that this is the most pressing foreign and domestic issue that the country faces.
I was also curious to see how the Globe would cover the story. I imagined that if bombs were flying and people were dying it would be well covered. I also expected that if things went relatively well it would have been some what down played.
I knew right away that results were a spectacular success because the first story I saw on the front page above the fold was that the Storrow drive tunnel might have to be refurbished and God forbid, traffic might have to be re-routed through the Back Bay or the esplanade. This is the LEAD front page story.
Now that is the type of hard hitting, informative journalism that we have come to expect from the Globe. Today is more of the same. There is a story in the world section by some Reuters guy and a column by Bush/America hater Derrick Jackson.
Jackson laments the fact the Bush admitted there maybe be 30,000 civilian casualties in the Iraqi war.
No where in the piece does Jackson mention the 300,000 Iraqis murdered by Saddam or the 1 million plus people lost in his forays into Iran and Kuwait. In fact I can never remember Derrick making any comments on those figures. In stead he gives us this quote "That illustrates just how far Iraq has removed Bush from his own humanity. Without evidence of weapons, he would still order a war that kills thousands of innocent people. Bush now admits knowing the scorecard. But it still remains only a game".
I Don't recall Derrick lamenting the number of dead Serbians as a result of Clinton's non-UN non-French sanctioned intervention in Bosnia nor did he question Clinton's humanity.
If the Globe had any interest in a positive outcome of the Iraqi elections, there are any number of angles they might have reported on. But they aren't interested in a positive outcome. So until another Jack Murtha or Cindy Sheehan or Howard Dean inanity is spoken,or another American soldier is killed trying to help launch a fledgling Iraqi democracy we will hear about redirected traffic on Storrow Drive and wire taps and Scooter Libby or Karl Rove.
It gives me great pleasure to take a couple of quarters and tease the Globe dispenser machine. I put just the edge in and then I take it out and buy another paper.
I was also curious to see how the Globe would cover the story. I imagined that if bombs were flying and people were dying it would be well covered. I also expected that if things went relatively well it would have been some what down played.
I knew right away that results were a spectacular success because the first story I saw on the front page above the fold was that the Storrow drive tunnel might have to be refurbished and God forbid, traffic might have to be re-routed through the Back Bay or the esplanade. This is the LEAD front page story.
Now that is the type of hard hitting, informative journalism that we have come to expect from the Globe. Today is more of the same. There is a story in the world section by some Reuters guy and a column by Bush/America hater Derrick Jackson.
Jackson laments the fact the Bush admitted there maybe be 30,000 civilian casualties in the Iraqi war.
No where in the piece does Jackson mention the 300,000 Iraqis murdered by Saddam or the 1 million plus people lost in his forays into Iran and Kuwait. In fact I can never remember Derrick making any comments on those figures. In stead he gives us this quote "That illustrates just how far Iraq has removed Bush from his own humanity. Without evidence of weapons, he would still order a war that kills thousands of innocent people. Bush now admits knowing the scorecard. But it still remains only a game".
I Don't recall Derrick lamenting the number of dead Serbians as a result of Clinton's non-UN non-French sanctioned intervention in Bosnia nor did he question Clinton's humanity.
If the Globe had any interest in a positive outcome of the Iraqi elections, there are any number of angles they might have reported on. But they aren't interested in a positive outcome. So until another Jack Murtha or Cindy Sheehan or Howard Dean inanity is spoken,or another American soldier is killed trying to help launch a fledgling Iraqi democracy we will hear about redirected traffic on Storrow Drive and wire taps and Scooter Libby or Karl Rove.
It gives me great pleasure to take a couple of quarters and tease the Globe dispenser machine. I put just the edge in and then I take it out and buy another paper.
Saturday, December 10, 2005
The weather was bad
Yesterday marked the first significant snowfall of the year. The event once again reinforced the notion that the only reason I think I live in Massachusetts is because A: there aren’t many earthquakes and B: I don’t know any better.
I was eager to assess the impact of a significant snow fall because I have recently taken a new job that now brings me closer to home by 9 miles but unfortunately requires me to head South from Burlington towards Boston down into Medford. The total distance from door to door is exactly 11.6 miles and you would think it would be a relatively short trip. Think again.
I have tried a variety of different routes to try and find the most efficient one. Despite having 2 major highways, Route 128 (95) North to Route 93 South, the best route is through Woburn and Winchester on the main streets. So far the best I have been able to make the 11.6 miles is 23 minutes. That was at 6:45 in the morning and not on the super highways but on the back roads. The back roads are the best choice because despite having 2 “super highways” and despite over 14 billion dollars spent on the big dig, route 93 is still a parking lot in the morning into Boston and in the evening out of Boston.
My worst fair weather experience so far took place last week when it took me 50 minutes. There were no accidents or no other discernible reason for this. The aggravation was made worse by the fact that a guy riding a bicycle was on the same route as I was and he actually beat me to my destination.
Yesterday drove home the possible reason why Massachusetts is losing population. The snow started early in the morning about the time everyone was on their way to work. By noontime it was snowing pretty heavily in the Northwestern suburbs and by 2 o’clock rain turn to snow in the Boston metro area. This soon turned into white out conditions and the out-lying suburbs accumulated about a foot of snow.
What effect did it have on my commute? Well 11.6 miles turned into an epic 3 plus hour journey. My preferred route following the back roads was completely ruled out by one of many cars that were stick in a famous Massachusetts rotary. When I saw this I was fortunate to be able to turn around and head back to another route. As far as I know the other people might still be there.
The number of odd automobile locations were to numerous to mention as they were stuck in every conceivable location including abandoned vehicles right in the middle of an interstate highway. Some were driven completely off the road as people kept going when they couldn’t see and unfortunately went in a direction where no road existed.
Since I am no stranger to these conditions I remained remarkably composed until after picking up the Mrs. from her place of work I arrived home to find that my snowplow guy had not arrived and my driveway was completely covered in the foot of snow plus another foot of windblown drifts. This did not turn out to be a major problem as my two neighbors jumped in with their snow blowers and had me cleaned out in no time.
Tim and Yusef are great neighbors and are always ready to help anyone in the neighborhood. I find it remarkable that a guy like me who has grown up in the frozen tundra of the Northeast gets bailed out by an always winter prepared guy who grew up in Egypt. I always kid him after the heavy snowfall clean up about longing for the sands of Egypt and he always laughs and he tells me he loves it here. Go figure.
When I finished up and got settled in the house I made it a point of calling my snowplow guy who by the way was referred to me because my regular guy had retired from plowing. When I got him on the phone I asked how come my drive way wasn’t plowed?
His reply was that “the weather was too bad, I couldn’t see.” I didn’t bother to ask him in what snowstorm the weather was good; instead I said that I didn’t think I would need him this year.
I was eager to assess the impact of a significant snow fall because I have recently taken a new job that now brings me closer to home by 9 miles but unfortunately requires me to head South from Burlington towards Boston down into Medford. The total distance from door to door is exactly 11.6 miles and you would think it would be a relatively short trip. Think again.
I have tried a variety of different routes to try and find the most efficient one. Despite having 2 major highways, Route 128 (95) North to Route 93 South, the best route is through Woburn and Winchester on the main streets. So far the best I have been able to make the 11.6 miles is 23 minutes. That was at 6:45 in the morning and not on the super highways but on the back roads. The back roads are the best choice because despite having 2 “super highways” and despite over 14 billion dollars spent on the big dig, route 93 is still a parking lot in the morning into Boston and in the evening out of Boston.
My worst fair weather experience so far took place last week when it took me 50 minutes. There were no accidents or no other discernible reason for this. The aggravation was made worse by the fact that a guy riding a bicycle was on the same route as I was and he actually beat me to my destination.
Yesterday drove home the possible reason why Massachusetts is losing population. The snow started early in the morning about the time everyone was on their way to work. By noontime it was snowing pretty heavily in the Northwestern suburbs and by 2 o’clock rain turn to snow in the Boston metro area. This soon turned into white out conditions and the out-lying suburbs accumulated about a foot of snow.
What effect did it have on my commute? Well 11.6 miles turned into an epic 3 plus hour journey. My preferred route following the back roads was completely ruled out by one of many cars that were stick in a famous Massachusetts rotary. When I saw this I was fortunate to be able to turn around and head back to another route. As far as I know the other people might still be there.
The number of odd automobile locations were to numerous to mention as they were stuck in every conceivable location including abandoned vehicles right in the middle of an interstate highway. Some were driven completely off the road as people kept going when they couldn’t see and unfortunately went in a direction where no road existed.
Since I am no stranger to these conditions I remained remarkably composed until after picking up the Mrs. from her place of work I arrived home to find that my snowplow guy had not arrived and my driveway was completely covered in the foot of snow plus another foot of windblown drifts. This did not turn out to be a major problem as my two neighbors jumped in with their snow blowers and had me cleaned out in no time.
Tim and Yusef are great neighbors and are always ready to help anyone in the neighborhood. I find it remarkable that a guy like me who has grown up in the frozen tundra of the Northeast gets bailed out by an always winter prepared guy who grew up in Egypt. I always kid him after the heavy snowfall clean up about longing for the sands of Egypt and he always laughs and he tells me he loves it here. Go figure.
When I finished up and got settled in the house I made it a point of calling my snowplow guy who by the way was referred to me because my regular guy had retired from plowing. When I got him on the phone I asked how come my drive way wasn’t plowed?
His reply was that “the weather was too bad, I couldn’t see.” I didn’t bother to ask him in what snowstorm the weather was good; instead I said that I didn’t think I would need him this year.
Friday, December 02, 2005
America pulls out!
Does that sound like a catchy campaign phrase or a soundbite that a politican will make hay with? How about "Army, broken, worn out, living hand to mouth?" Compare this to "No substitute for victory." In the age of short attention spans and short message politics it seems as though the tide has once again turned.
In the space of 2 weeks the Democrats have squandered what appeared to be an advantage to be exploited in the 2006 midterms and turned it into an albatross hanging around their necks. That albatross is Congressman John Murtha. The party has been on the slide again from the moment Murtha uttered the words "complete withdrawal." It seemed like gold for a fleeting moment as the leftist media fawningly described Murtha as a committed hawk who had a change of heart and realized his mistakes and was now coming to his senses.
His change of heart was short lived however when given the opportunity to express his feelings on the floor of the house via a non-binding resolution, Murtha along with over 200 other Democrats could not find the nerve to cast even a symbolic vote.
The slide continued as Murtha, apparently relishing his new found fame as a national media darling uttered the following hogwash. Speaking in Latrobe, Pa., Wednesday, the ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee and Subcommittee on Defense said troops in Iraq are "barely getting by," and won't be able to meet future military threats to the country, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. If Murtha is to be believed, the most technologically advanced and well supplied military in the world cannot sustain 130,000 men in combat. Since Murtha is on the committees whose responsibility it is to make sure this is not true then perhaps it is time for the congressman to retire if he is not up to the task.
When then Democratic Senator Zell Miller excoriated the Democrats at the Republican national convention, Democratic strategist James Carville said "I feel sorry for that poor old man" perhaps James is thinking the same about Murtha.
All the usual suspects have jumped on the Murtha bandwagon, Nancy Pelosi, Hapless Harry Reid and the Post and Times all see Murtha as "changing the debate" on Iraq. Unfortunately for the Democrats prominent members of their own party are recoiling from Murtha as fast as possible. Bill and Hillary Clinton along with John Kerry have all rejected such a foolish course of action and even the French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin chimed in with his opposition.
The most vocal of the Democrats was Sen. Joe Lieberman who had this to say, "I have just returned from my fourth trip to Iraq in the past 17 months and can report real progress there. More work needs to be done, of course, but the Iraqi people are in reach of a watershed transformation from the primitive, killing tyranny of Saddam to modern, self-governing, self-securing nationhood." This eye witness account for some reason could not be found on the pages of the Washington Post or New York Times.
Forgetting for a moment what the out of power people had to say let's look at what the boss had to say. In an address at the Naval Academy in front of a group of people he must lead, President Bush did not equivocate. "To all who wear the uniform, I make you this pledge: America will not run in the face of car bombers and assassins so long as I am your commander in chief."
More importantly than speeches however is a clear cut plan for achieving our goals. Look herehttp://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/iraq_strategy_nov2005.html
and you will find what many have said does not exist. This is clearly identified plan entitled National Strategy for Victory in Iraq. Unless the Democrats can come up with a document that clearly articulates a plan of action that is superior to this one, the party is going to remain fractious and directionless heading into the mid terms.
In the space of 2 weeks the Democrats have squandered what appeared to be an advantage to be exploited in the 2006 midterms and turned it into an albatross hanging around their necks. That albatross is Congressman John Murtha. The party has been on the slide again from the moment Murtha uttered the words "complete withdrawal." It seemed like gold for a fleeting moment as the leftist media fawningly described Murtha as a committed hawk who had a change of heart and realized his mistakes and was now coming to his senses.
His change of heart was short lived however when given the opportunity to express his feelings on the floor of the house via a non-binding resolution, Murtha along with over 200 other Democrats could not find the nerve to cast even a symbolic vote.
The slide continued as Murtha, apparently relishing his new found fame as a national media darling uttered the following hogwash. Speaking in Latrobe, Pa., Wednesday, the ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee and Subcommittee on Defense said troops in Iraq are "barely getting by," and won't be able to meet future military threats to the country, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. If Murtha is to be believed, the most technologically advanced and well supplied military in the world cannot sustain 130,000 men in combat. Since Murtha is on the committees whose responsibility it is to make sure this is not true then perhaps it is time for the congressman to retire if he is not up to the task.
When then Democratic Senator Zell Miller excoriated the Democrats at the Republican national convention, Democratic strategist James Carville said "I feel sorry for that poor old man" perhaps James is thinking the same about Murtha.
All the usual suspects have jumped on the Murtha bandwagon, Nancy Pelosi, Hapless Harry Reid and the Post and Times all see Murtha as "changing the debate" on Iraq. Unfortunately for the Democrats prominent members of their own party are recoiling from Murtha as fast as possible. Bill and Hillary Clinton along with John Kerry have all rejected such a foolish course of action and even the French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin chimed in with his opposition.
The most vocal of the Democrats was Sen. Joe Lieberman who had this to say, "I have just returned from my fourth trip to Iraq in the past 17 months and can report real progress there. More work needs to be done, of course, but the Iraqi people are in reach of a watershed transformation from the primitive, killing tyranny of Saddam to modern, self-governing, self-securing nationhood." This eye witness account for some reason could not be found on the pages of the Washington Post or New York Times.
Forgetting for a moment what the out of power people had to say let's look at what the boss had to say. In an address at the Naval Academy in front of a group of people he must lead, President Bush did not equivocate. "To all who wear the uniform, I make you this pledge: America will not run in the face of car bombers and assassins so long as I am your commander in chief."
More importantly than speeches however is a clear cut plan for achieving our goals. Look herehttp://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/iraq_strategy_nov2005.html
and you will find what many have said does not exist. This is clearly identified plan entitled National Strategy for Victory in Iraq. Unless the Democrats can come up with a document that clearly articulates a plan of action that is superior to this one, the party is going to remain fractious and directionless heading into the mid terms.
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