Monday, July 30, 2007

Garnett for half the team, two draft choices and your Aunt Bessie

News out on AP today has the Celtics trading Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and 2 number one draft choices for 31 year old Kevin Garnett. When I first read it all I could think about was half the team going in exchange for a guy who breaks his ankle the first day of training camp.

Forgive me for my pessimism but we Celtic fans are in the throes of a major down cycle since the last championship in 1986. We needn't go in to detail but the low points consist of Len Bias and Reggie Lewis dying way before their time followed by two failed lottery opportunities to get franchise players. We missed on Tim Duncan and most recently managed to miss chances at Oden and Durant.

After the initial shock I tried to be a little more optimistic with little success until I got on to the phone with my son. "Did you hear about the deal" I inquired, his reply was "of course, he had been talking about it all day." When I asked why he hadn't called me he said he thought he might wait until I had a chance to recover.


After ranting for a few minutes I finally gave him an opportunity to express his view on the subject. His reply was as close to a reasonable explanation as I can hope for. "For 8 years I have worked right next to the building they play in and for 7 of those years they have absolutely stunk. Adding Kevin Garnett along with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce and we have a legitimate chance for a 17th championship over the next 4 or 5 years, I deserve this."



Well now, after considering that reasoning I started taking a harder look at Garnett and found that perhaps that school of thought has some merit. Here are Garnett's career numbers http://aol.nba.com/playerfile/kevin_garnett/career_stats.html A close look reveals a player that is remarkably durable and consistent with numbers that make him perhaps one of the top three players in all of basketball.

He is a genuine 7 footer that is powerful, agile and possesses both a deft shooting and passing touch. He is also a banger on the boards averaging almost 11.5 per game. One stat I wasn't familar with until reading some of the press reports is that Kevin Garnett along with Larry Bird are the only 2 players in NBA history to average 20 points 10 rebounds and 5 assists per game for 6 consecutive seasons. If that is the type of game he is bringing to Boston then maybe including another aunt in the deal would be worth it to make it happen.

Sunday, July 29, 2007

A great achievement by Bonds

Within the next week Barry Bonds will break Henry Aaron's career home run record of 755. It really is an incredible achievement when you consider the amount of time and consistency he has spent at the top levels of the game to break one of its most cherished records.

I can remember back when Aaron broke Babe Ruth's record 714 in 1976. A record which stood unmatched for 41 years. The media was in a high frenzy and almost every day there was some sort of an Aaron watch as he closed in on the Babe.

The Barry Bonds watch is somewhat muted because of the issue of steroids that surrounds Bonds. I am not in the camp that holds much stock in the idea that Bond's achievement is any less significant because of the controversy.

At the highest levels of competition through out the business world (sports is a business) there is a constant and diligent effort to operate at the margins. Someone is always on the edge trying to take any advantage whatever to achieve their goals. As I recall there is a line from NASCAR that goes something like "if you ain't cheatin you ain't competin." Baseball has some of its own examples in the Hall of Fame particularly in the spitball or vaseline ball categories.

It would be one thing if perhaps Bonds was the only player in the game or perhaps one of a few that stretched the limits of the rules or even good judgement. This does not seem to be the case since there has been constant reports of steroid use through out almost all the sports establishment for a decade or so or at least a long time prior to it gaining national attention.

My point is that if Bonds were trying to increase his production by that means there were also a good many pitchers he was facing that were bigger and stronger because of the same reasons. The fact of the matter is Bonds still had to come to the plate and hit the ball. He did that with tremendous consistency over his 21 year career to date.

A simple look at the entire career of Bonds shows that he has long been at the very pinnacle of the game. In every statistical category Bonds numbers stand out. His entire career can be seen here http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/bondsba01.shtml. It would be worth noting that not only is his offensive production staggering in every category but he was also an eight time gold glove winner in the field for the Pirates and Giants.

As with all records some one will break any that Bonds sets. Alex Rodriguez for example may be the one to put Barry in second place. For the moment however, Barry Bonds has been the greatest player in the game for the past 21 years. He was no stranger to devout followers of the game as his father was a triple threat when he played in the league. His arrival on the scene was met with much anticipation and expectations and over the past 21 years Barry Bonds has not disappointed.
The guy deserves the credit due him.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Assessing the damage

As of Saturday July 21, the Burlington Board of Selectmen has announced the relaxation of the town wide mandatory outside watering ban. This came as a result of the DEP approving the return of the Mill Pond treatment plant to full production.

Based on the original contract estimates of completion on or about May 1 we can do some simple math and find that the town was without the production from the plant for a total of 52 days. This number will be important for a number of reasons.

The first and foremost is that the town can take these 52 days and make a comparison over say the last five years and determine how much less gallonage was sold during that period. By multiplying the selling price times the unit cost per gallon we can find the total of lost revenue as a result of the ban. But wait, now we have to multiply that number times two because the sewer revenue is determined by taking your water consumption during the month and doubling it and adding that figure to come up with your final bill for the period.

Additionally, we now must multiply by 52 the amount of money we spent per day buying water from Lexington during this contractor created fiasco. Estimates printed in the paper were that we paid $2500 per day buying the maximum of 1 million gallons a day that was available through the Lexington connection. If my math is correct then we suffered an extra expense of $130,000 during the period.

Let's make some estimates using the $2500 per million gallon figure and do some speculating. Suppose for a moment that the town lost 2 million gallons per day of lost water sales as a result of the ban. If we take $2500 x 2 we get $5000 and if we add the accompanying double sewer charge we arrive at a figure of $15,000 per day lost in gross revenue to the town. That number multiplied by the all important 52 day delay comes out to $780,000. If we take the added cost of $130,000 and add $780,000 we arrive at total damages done to the town in the amount of $910,000. This is money lost to the FY 08 budget. Where will it be made up?

Now these numbers are probably wrong although I believe they are conservative since I used the wholesale figure for the value of the water per million gallon unit. The issue here is not whether my numbers are wrong but whether or not there is a way to accurately measure the right number and when that number is established what are the Selectmen and town management going to do about it? Indeed, can they do anything about it in terms of recovering these resources lost by the failure of the contractor to meet the terms of the project?

Sunday, July 15, 2007

Romney moving up?

Beginning in January we will begin to see the results of various caucuses and primaries that will give concrete information about voter's preferences for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations. Up until that point we will mostly be inundated with the media's preference for the job. That explains the reason that network news coverage and the front page of AOL always have some tasty tidbit about Hillary or Barack.

The Hillary /Barack media train has been slowed a bit this weekend as the media relishes the McCain campaign implosion. For awhile it appeared as though McCain might be a viable general election candidate against Hillary and many polls a few months ago had him besting her. The problem of course for McCain is that some of the party regulars suspect that the man is a Republican in name only (RINO) and his recent support of the failed immigration bill had independents running from him like he had the plague.

With his campaign cash dwindling and the recent firing of his top campaign staff, McCain is all but washed up. Nothing short of a miracle will re-establish him as a viable candidate. He has won in the past in New Hampshire, shocking George Bush in 2000 but with Mitt Romney a close by favorite son, McCain will not finish with any result to brag about.

When the early result come in the media will have to shift to the winners and the focus will stay directly on them until they falter. Just such a shift is likely to occur for our own former Governor Mitt Romney.

To date Romney has escaped major national focus but with a sure win in the Iowa caucuses, a likely big New Hampshire win and the demise of McCain, Romney is sure to rise higher in the Republican pecking order.

Once that happens and as the would be contenders begin to fall by the wayside (Gilmore out today), Romney will get a chance to demonstrate why he will be a very attractive candidate for the nomination. It is true that in some conservative circles a former governor of Massachusetts would be considered a pox on the party, however once the nomination is secured it is the middle of the road moderate Republicans, independents and the anybody but Hillary Democrats that will decide this election.

As the numbers pare down and Romney gets more national face time and print coverage his strengths are going to be more evident. Let's get the most important item out of the way, the guy is really handsome. With the fixation that American voters have with appearance, it is important that Romney win the swimsuit competition.

For those who care about what a candidate would bring top the table from a credentials stand point it is difficult to find anyone that equals his resume. His academic credentials are impeccable having graduated from BYU, an MBA from the Harvard Business School and finally a JD from Harvard Law.

On the business front he is one of the few national politicians that actually has accomplished something major in the business world. He founded Bain capital in 1984 and the firm has been a significant player in the venture capital and private equity business ever since. Romney understands the efficient application of capital in the business world.

His management acumen was clearly on display with his assumption of the leadership role in 2002 olympics as President and CEO of the Salt Lake Organizing Committee. At the time the operation was nearly 400 million dollars in the red and by most accounts Romney engineered a successful turn around. If Romney is elected president it won't be the highest paying job he ever had. That is more than most of the candidates from both parties can say.

His resume in government is a little thinner however he has experience as a governor which when compared to that of a senator is major plus. A governor is responsible for day to day management of a sizable operation from the creation and submission of a budget, labor negotiations, individual appointments and to the creation of and implementation of policy.

More importantly than his resume or his looks is his ability to raise money. In the American system no candidate is worthy unless he can raise the necessary money to wage a battle in every competing state. This is another area in which Romney will not be left behind. No matter who the candidate, the source of funds will come from various special interest groups. Romney has been in the money business for a long time. When he calls for money it will come.

We are mid summer and items of interest are popping up here and there, but come the end of August the campaign will heat up dramatically. We shall see how Romney does when the temperature does rise.

Saturday, July 07, 2007

A long strong thread

My favorite analogy of community life in Burlington is a piece of strong fabric. Fabric is made of many threads that touch many others, some longer and stronger than others. One example of a very long and strong thread in Burlington is 79 year old Joseph Keohane.

Joe and his wife Marilyn moved to Burlington from Arlington in 1961. Like many other young families in Arlington, Somerville and Cambridge, Burlington's affordability made home ownership a reality. Once here it was not long before people discovered other migrants from their old neighborhoods.

Just such a discovery started Joe on a journey that soon will enter its 42nd year. As a teenager on the playgrounds of Arlington, Joe had coached a boy named Don Swanson. When Joe got to Burlington he found that the now adult Swanson was coaching in the Burlington little leagues. At the invitation of Don and turnabout being fair play, Joe became the assistant coach of the Twins for Don. Not long after, Joe took over the team and for 41 consecutive years Joe has coached 10 to 12 year olds on that same Twins team.

As remarkable as his longevity, even more so has been his record of success. In 41 years the Twins have won 17 championships and by some accounts it may be more since 4 years of winners can't be accounted for.

To what does Joe attribute his success? When queried on the subject he will answer with any response other than he is an excellent coach. "I have had really great assistants like Ed Sullivan, Jack O'Donnell, Lenny Orsini and Art Young. You can't coach effectively without assistants." In addition he adds with a knowing smile, "I guess the other coaches would tell you that I draft well because I know all the kids birthdays." It is good that he drafts well because he wins so much he doesn't get the top pick very often. He also drafts well because he can often be seen at the park watching and encouraging children in the younger leagues.

Surely Joe, there must be something about you or your coaching strategies that are special? Keohane replies in the same low key way, "No not really, I do the same things every year. We practice fundamentals, I almost never have the kids bunt because kids love to hit and most importantly I treat every kid the same way."

When asked to expand on that subject, Joe's understanding of the game and children shines through. "Years ago there was no requirement to play every child in the game. I never agreed with that and I played every one of them and tried to treat them fairly and prepare them equally. Children respond to that type of respect. My experience over the years is that on any team, in any competition, it is frequently not the most talented member of the team that makes a big contribution in a key spot."

Over 41 years, what has Joe observed about how 10 to 12 year olds have changed? "Nothing says Joe, there isn't much difference now than when I started." I was thinking that discipline is more of an issue now than when he began but Joe said "No, I only had one problem that comes to mind. One of my players was cussing out an umpire and when I corrected him he told me I didn't understand children of the 90's. I told him that may be so but my rules were the same in any year and he would abide by them or sit until he could." That player went on to conclude an all star season very quietly. One hard and fast rule for Joe is no bullying, it is simply not tolerated.

What ever his secrets are they are not exclusive to baseball. Joe and Marilyn recently celebrated their 50th wedding anniversary and as parents have shared success raising six wonderful children. All of them are college grads and each has left a trail of achievement in Burlington. Ellen and Paul were Burlington High scholar athletes in 79 and 86 respectively, Danny and Michael noted for academic achievement, Anne was captain of the swim team, and young Joe captained his college baseball team and was one of only seven Burlington residents ever drafted into professional baseball.

Remarkably, having never laced on skates or played hockey, Keohane coached peewee hockey in Burlington and brought a Burlington team to a national championship game, losing in the finals in St. Louis. He also started a hockey school that lasted for over twenty years and can count a great many of Burlington's power house players as students. C'mon, Joe how is that possible? All of this and you had never laced on skates previously? Joe sheepishly replies, "I read everything I could get my hands on about the subject."

Although it is difficult to get much self praise out of Keohane you need only ask people who know him to get an accurate picture of the man. One such person is Ron Sanderson who also is an icon in the little leagues having coached for 31 years. About Keohane he says "Well, he has been my nemesis but I love coaching with him. He is great with the kids, quick with a smile and always very low key. He never speaks a negative word and when he talks to his players it is always encouragement. The only outward sign of competitiveness is when the game starts you can see Joe rub his hands together. When you see that you know you are in trouble."

Keohane's oldest son Joe, adds this, "he always positively encouraged us at every level but it wasn't that his children could do no wrong. If we made a mistake it was corrected immediately but at the end of the conversation you felt good about it."

So what does Joe remember about this long association with the league and his players? Just about everything is the answer. Joe has a picture of every team he has had over the years and the name of every one of the 513 players that ever played for him is on his computer. This knowledge was vividly on display when in conversation we reminisced about the Twins team that my son was lucky enough to play on with Joe as coach. I have lived on my street for 30 years and in a short span of time Joe named every boy on my street who played in the league, not on his team mind you, but in the league!

Having coached baseball this long and counting his long stints in hockey as well as girls softball, Joe is now finding that he is coaching sons of the fathers and mothers he coached many years ago.

Think of it, 513 of his own players and the players and coaches that know him from playing against him, the number of his players on his hockey teams and his hockey schools, all the guys he knows at the health club, if we were playing the trivia game Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, Joe might be somehow connected to every family in the state!

What does the future hold for Joe? "My plan is to coach as long as my health holds out so I plan to keep on doing the same exact things for awhile." Jokingly he adds, "after that I have my plot picked out at Chestnut Hill next to (brother in law and first assistant coach) Ed Sullivan's grave." Leave it to Joe to have someone advance scouting the next league he will be coaching in.