Over the past fifty years, conventional wisdom in Burlington has been that continued development would contribute significantly to the tax base and result in the community having its cake and eating it too. Classification would allow a shift of a major part of the tax burden to the commercial sector and result in services of every kind without fees and a low residential tax rate.
Since 2002 that thinking has not been born out. In fact it has been just the opposite. The commercial industrial value of the town in 2002 was $1,473,890,731 and the commercial sector of the community paid 64.74% of the total tax levy. As of fiscal year 2007 the value has dropped over 100 millions dollars to $1,361,394,435 and the commercial sector pays 54.96% of the tax burden. This despite the fact that we have allowed a great deal more development during that period. These figures are taken exactly from the town assessor Russell Washburn's tax history chart on the towns web page.
Since the events of 2001, the region and the country enjoyed a significant economic boom yet our commercial values fell while our residential values skyrocketed. This combination of events resulted in a residential tax increase of 24% three years ago. What can be the reason for this phenomena and what does it bode for the future?
The only explanation that I can arrive at is that we have simply put on so much space that we are now driving down our own commercial values and income by virtue of over supply and the tremendous competition for commercial tenants.
This can be born out again in an analysis of the hotels in town by looking at the revenue stream from the hotel tax. What follows is a list by year of the town's receipts from the hotel tax beginning in fiscal year 1999.
1999.......$1,032,514
2000....... 1,344,562
2001........1,534,562
2002....... 1,191,603
2003......... 956,453
2004..........903,362
2005..........989,502
2006....... 1,049,991
2007....... 1,344,911
2008....... 1,432,492
The most distressing aspect of this is that the town added the following inventory of rooms. In 1999 came Summerfield Suites with 151 rooms, in 2000, Homestead with 141rooms, Staybridge in 2002 with 142 rooms and finally Candlewood in 2002 adding 149 rooms for a total of 583 new rooms added to the inventory.
The net result is that since 2000 we have almost doubled the number of available room rentals in the town yet we have not equaled the same of amount of tax revenue that we got in 2001 with half as many rooms. That can only be explained by the glut of hotel competition that was put on during that time in Burlington and the adjacent communities.
This can also be born out in the value of these hotel properties. The old Sheraton FourPoints/Wyndham Gardens/Holiday Inn on Wheeler Road was reportedly sold for 14 million dollars in 2000 but changed hands again four years later when it went out of business and was sold for $6,480,000. This, despite the fact that nearly 2 million dollars had been spent in renovations. As you can imagine, this kind of drop in value also resulted in a corresponding drop in taxes.
A complete and exhaustive analysis should be done on our projected revenue before we make any more changes to our zoning bylaw or before we allow any additional Planned Development Districts that allow increased square footage beyond what the current zoning bylaws allow. In addition, the Board of Selectmen should inform the Board of Appeals that any circumventing of the FAR by law (foot area ratio) by the Board of Appeals will be brought to court. An iron clad prohibition on hotels should be implemented unless the applicant can prove that a new hotel will increase revenue and not put one or more of our existing hotels out of business.
The reasons for this are very simple.The town has made enormous commitments already to developments that are the very cornerstone of our income. The total amount of space approved but not built or rented according to the Landlocked Parcel Study Committee is 3,997,000 square feet consisting of the following:
Trammel Crow .......227,000
Wheeler Road .........250,000
Burlington Woods ..100,000
Wall Street ..............170,000
Palomar ..................200,000
Sun Microsystems .300,000
Northwest Park ..2,150,000
South Ave ...............600,000
These numbers are a staggering addition to the in place commercial space in the town. It could take as much as 10 to 15 years to absorb this space into the market. This letter is not a call to institute any kind of a moratorium or restrict the legitimate rights of land holders. It is however, a suggestion that the town has reached a point of diminishing returns and would be foolish to pass any more zoning changes that gives away enormous increases in density. More excess supply only reduces our current values. The old argument that it is good for the residents by lowering the tax rate simply cannot be justified.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Victory has 100 fathers and defeat is an orphan
Well there is a new sheriff in town and his name is Obama. It really doesn't matter what color he is or what party he is from or where he was born and anything else for that matter. He is the leader elect of the most powerful nation on earth and strictly from the stand point of self interest don't we all want him to succeed at the highest levels?
For him or against can't we all share in the pride that American ideals have once again been proven? Europeans are so civil and much more sophisticated than us colonial hicks but can you see what just happened here being played out in the capitols of Europe?
Unfortunately, most of the euphoria of his historic victory will blow over all to soon and he will be faced with an abundance of problems facing the nation and the world. Lofty rhetoric and pure ideals will be faced with the reality of Realpolitik. His victory, although large from an electoral standpoint, was not one of a crushing mandate and though a shift to the Left it does not mean that there will be a sudden shift of the country into the Europeanization of America.
The two great ironies of his victory are the institutions which played key roles in his shift of fortunes. Hillary Clinton was the press favorite and presumptive nominee until the press got Obama fever. There will be a great deal of post election analysis by alleged experts but the results are what any casual observer can already tell you, the coverage was overwhelmingly pro-Obama. The Washington Post Ombudsman http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/07/AR2008110702895.html?hpid=opinionsbox1. admits this in a piece today. The Pew Research Center says it in a different way, the media wasn't as much Obama as they were anti McCain. What's the difference? http://www.journalism.org/node/13307
The media industry favorability ratings were already falling like a stone in the eyes of Americans and this election certainly helped to accelerate the demise of the big print media outlets. Television news programming won't fair much better as advocacy journalism will fall out of favor with viewers. Maybe not today or tomorrow but eventually the likes of Keith Olberman willl go back to speculating on football game winners where he belongs. It takes a heck of an effort to fall beneath the ratings of congress and car salesmen but journalists have managed to do so.
It would be interesting to view some of the lesson plans in journalism classes at colleges across the nation. Are they exploring the long term potential damage of media bias or are they reveling in the results?
As the Obama presidency progresses you can be sure that at some point hero worship will end and some of the very same people that help propel him to near god like status on the basis of a very thin resume will suddenly turn on him like angry dogs in hopes of garnering some elusive Pulitzer recognition. American media loves to elevate people to rock star status only to skewer them when then prove all to human.
The most surprising and unwitting push for Obama came from that bastion of capitalists on Wall Street. The mid September failure of the Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the country set off an earth quake in the financial markets that is still careening out of control today. It shifted the fundamental issues of the campaign from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the financial crisis at home. Up until that that time the race seemed to be tightening and McCain was making up ground on the issues of the success of the surge and the Russian invasion of Georgia. By election day Iraq was back page news.
This chart shows the Dow at 11,300 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#symbol=%5EDJI;range=1y in mid September at the time of the Lehman collapse, a little over a month later on October 27, the Dow had cratered to 8175 and the once proud and arrogant investment banking business was decimated. Unfortunately for us, the plague was not restricted to just Wall Street. With the sudden and dramatic shrinking of America's IRA and 401K balances so to did McCain's chances.
So the tables are turned and the bitterness of presidential defeat is now being tasted by the Republicans. As you would expect, they are not handling it any better than the Democrats did during the Gore and Kerry debacles.
The anonymous sniping going on in the McCain camp regarding Sarah Palin is one example. The old adage of "Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan" is being played out by the McCain brain trust. Some of the McCain insiders would have you believe that somehow Palin was responsible for the defeat under the misguided notion that it will draw attention from a completely uninspiring effort by McCain. In the final analysis it might prove that it might have been a far worse defeat for McCain had Palin not been on the ticket.
Despite the visceral hatred for Palin by the press, she still managed to come out of the election as a high profile candidate for the future. The coverage of Palin versus that of Joe Biden was almost criminally one sided. Palin was drawing huge and enthusiastic crowds for the Republicans while Joe was virtually locked in a closet for fear that another famous Biden gaffe might derail Obama.
The next four years will enable the Republicans and the nation to get a better understanding of just how good or bad a politician Palin is as she will govern Alaska and may even end up in the senate if Stevens is kicked out over his recent conviction. She will be a force to be reckoned with in the process in 2012.
So the interminable election show is over and the most expensive campaign in American history has mercifully come to an end. President elect Obama will have about fifteen minutes to bask in the glory of his tremendous victory. He has already realized that elected office has two main pieces, winning and then serving. Winning the election will surely have proven to be the easy part. Over the next four years we will see him age before our eyes with the burden of the office just as every other president has before him.
For obvious reasons we should all hail President Elect Obama's victory, pray for his success and make damn sure of his security.
For him or against can't we all share in the pride that American ideals have once again been proven? Europeans are so civil and much more sophisticated than us colonial hicks but can you see what just happened here being played out in the capitols of Europe?
Unfortunately, most of the euphoria of his historic victory will blow over all to soon and he will be faced with an abundance of problems facing the nation and the world. Lofty rhetoric and pure ideals will be faced with the reality of Realpolitik. His victory, although large from an electoral standpoint, was not one of a crushing mandate and though a shift to the Left it does not mean that there will be a sudden shift of the country into the Europeanization of America.
The two great ironies of his victory are the institutions which played key roles in his shift of fortunes. Hillary Clinton was the press favorite and presumptive nominee until the press got Obama fever. There will be a great deal of post election analysis by alleged experts but the results are what any casual observer can already tell you, the coverage was overwhelmingly pro-Obama. The Washington Post Ombudsman http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/07/AR2008110702895.html?hpid=opinionsbox1. admits this in a piece today. The Pew Research Center says it in a different way, the media wasn't as much Obama as they were anti McCain. What's the difference? http://www.journalism.org/node/13307
The media industry favorability ratings were already falling like a stone in the eyes of Americans and this election certainly helped to accelerate the demise of the big print media outlets. Television news programming won't fair much better as advocacy journalism will fall out of favor with viewers. Maybe not today or tomorrow but eventually the likes of Keith Olberman willl go back to speculating on football game winners where he belongs. It takes a heck of an effort to fall beneath the ratings of congress and car salesmen but journalists have managed to do so.
It would be interesting to view some of the lesson plans in journalism classes at colleges across the nation. Are they exploring the long term potential damage of media bias or are they reveling in the results?
As the Obama presidency progresses you can be sure that at some point hero worship will end and some of the very same people that help propel him to near god like status on the basis of a very thin resume will suddenly turn on him like angry dogs in hopes of garnering some elusive Pulitzer recognition. American media loves to elevate people to rock star status only to skewer them when then prove all to human.
The most surprising and unwitting push for Obama came from that bastion of capitalists on Wall Street. The mid September failure of the Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the country set off an earth quake in the financial markets that is still careening out of control today. It shifted the fundamental issues of the campaign from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to the financial crisis at home. Up until that that time the race seemed to be tightening and McCain was making up ground on the issues of the success of the surge and the Russian invasion of Georgia. By election day Iraq was back page news.
This chart shows the Dow at 11,300 http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#symbol=%5EDJI;range=1y in mid September at the time of the Lehman collapse, a little over a month later on October 27, the Dow had cratered to 8175 and the once proud and arrogant investment banking business was decimated. Unfortunately for us, the plague was not restricted to just Wall Street. With the sudden and dramatic shrinking of America's IRA and 401K balances so to did McCain's chances.
So the tables are turned and the bitterness of presidential defeat is now being tasted by the Republicans. As you would expect, they are not handling it any better than the Democrats did during the Gore and Kerry debacles.
The anonymous sniping going on in the McCain camp regarding Sarah Palin is one example. The old adage of "Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan" is being played out by the McCain brain trust. Some of the McCain insiders would have you believe that somehow Palin was responsible for the defeat under the misguided notion that it will draw attention from a completely uninspiring effort by McCain. In the final analysis it might prove that it might have been a far worse defeat for McCain had Palin not been on the ticket.
Despite the visceral hatred for Palin by the press, she still managed to come out of the election as a high profile candidate for the future. The coverage of Palin versus that of Joe Biden was almost criminally one sided. Palin was drawing huge and enthusiastic crowds for the Republicans while Joe was virtually locked in a closet for fear that another famous Biden gaffe might derail Obama.
The next four years will enable the Republicans and the nation to get a better understanding of just how good or bad a politician Palin is as she will govern Alaska and may even end up in the senate if Stevens is kicked out over his recent conviction. She will be a force to be reckoned with in the process in 2012.
So the interminable election show is over and the most expensive campaign in American history has mercifully come to an end. President elect Obama will have about fifteen minutes to bask in the glory of his tremendous victory. He has already realized that elected office has two main pieces, winning and then serving. Winning the election will surely have proven to be the easy part. Over the next four years we will see him age before our eyes with the burden of the office just as every other president has before him.
For obvious reasons we should all hail President Elect Obama's victory, pray for his success and make damn sure of his security.
Saturday, November 01, 2008
No New Cemeteries
This week a presentation will be made by the DPW to the Selectmen to use the Wildwood School site as another cemetery. This proposal should be rejected immediately.
The town already has three cemeteries which occupy prime property right in the middle of the community. The last one was acquired when the town exercised its right to acquire the Seminatore property around 1986. The town had the right because the property was under a tax classification that reduced the property tax as an agricultural use but gave the community the right of first refusal if the property was sold for commercial use.
The property was under option to be acquired for use as a large assisted living facility when the town exercised its rights and decided to use the property to expand the cemetery which was right down the street from the existing Chestnut Hill Cemetery and the original Olde Burying ground.
At the time of this acquisition, the town had a moratorium on grave sales because of lack of space. You could only buy a group of four graves when you had a death in your immediate family. At the time of the acquisition the board had stated that despite the fact that new ground was being purchased it was necessary to keep the moratorium and make the new property last as long as possible. When the new space ran out it was time to determine if it was appropriate for the town to continue to be in the business of using vital town property for burial purposes.
Despite the fact that knowing that space would be dwindling, subsequent boards did not keep in place a moratorium and here we are 20 years later discussing the need for new space. Some people connected to the burial industry have even suggested that an appropriate use for the Land Locked land is to bury people there!
The time is now to end any commitment to providing new burial space in the town. No where in the town by laws or charter does it say that the town should be committed to providing this service forever. One only need to examine the pace at which the town has developed to figure out that eventually there will be no space at all, town owned or otherwise to bury the deceased.
At some point the decision is inevitable so it might as well be made now rather than later so that sites like the Wildwood property can be kept for the benefit of the living rather than the dead.
If the leadership insists on using additional property for cemetery space then they ought to consider the acquisition of the Thorstensen properties on Muller Road. The site consists of approximately 14 acres in a total of 10 parcels, 8 parcels zoned IG that front Muller Road and and 2 zoned RO. Since this area will be under a good deal of development stress in the coming years perhaps a cemetery use might be more acceptable to the neighbors than having business uses adjacent to them.
The property should soon come out of probate and it would appear that it will be available at a reasonable price given the facts surrounding the current real estate market as well as that it is reported that town sewer is about 1200 feet short of the sites.
The acquisition could be financed by a revenue bond rather than a general obligation bond since the sale of graves could provide sufficient cash flow to pay for the property.
The town already has three cemeteries which occupy prime property right in the middle of the community. The last one was acquired when the town exercised its right to acquire the Seminatore property around 1986. The town had the right because the property was under a tax classification that reduced the property tax as an agricultural use but gave the community the right of first refusal if the property was sold for commercial use.
The property was under option to be acquired for use as a large assisted living facility when the town exercised its rights and decided to use the property to expand the cemetery which was right down the street from the existing Chestnut Hill Cemetery and the original Olde Burying ground.
At the time of this acquisition, the town had a moratorium on grave sales because of lack of space. You could only buy a group of four graves when you had a death in your immediate family. At the time of the acquisition the board had stated that despite the fact that new ground was being purchased it was necessary to keep the moratorium and make the new property last as long as possible. When the new space ran out it was time to determine if it was appropriate for the town to continue to be in the business of using vital town property for burial purposes.
Despite the fact that knowing that space would be dwindling, subsequent boards did not keep in place a moratorium and here we are 20 years later discussing the need for new space. Some people connected to the burial industry have even suggested that an appropriate use for the Land Locked land is to bury people there!
The time is now to end any commitment to providing new burial space in the town. No where in the town by laws or charter does it say that the town should be committed to providing this service forever. One only need to examine the pace at which the town has developed to figure out that eventually there will be no space at all, town owned or otherwise to bury the deceased.
At some point the decision is inevitable so it might as well be made now rather than later so that sites like the Wildwood property can be kept for the benefit of the living rather than the dead.
If the leadership insists on using additional property for cemetery space then they ought to consider the acquisition of the Thorstensen properties on Muller Road. The site consists of approximately 14 acres in a total of 10 parcels, 8 parcels zoned IG that front Muller Road and and 2 zoned RO. Since this area will be under a good deal of development stress in the coming years perhaps a cemetery use might be more acceptable to the neighbors than having business uses adjacent to them.
The property should soon come out of probate and it would appear that it will be available at a reasonable price given the facts surrounding the current real estate market as well as that it is reported that town sewer is about 1200 feet short of the sites.
The acquisition could be financed by a revenue bond rather than a general obligation bond since the sale of graves could provide sufficient cash flow to pay for the property.
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