Thursday, December 28, 2006

2007 predictions

As 2006 winds down there will be a blizzard of year in reviews and prognostications for the future. The whole process is one that we should perform in our personal lives as well. The older we get the more likely it is that one year blends seamlessly into another so it is with good reason we make resolutions and try to specify a time frame in which they are achieved. The year in review process enables you to examine those resolutions that failed so that you can immediately incorporate them into the next year. A perfect example is losing ten pounds. I resolve to lose ten in 2007 and I predict that I won't.

On other fronts I have some bold predictions.

1. The Red Sox will win the 2007 World Series and Daisuke Matsusaka will become a household name.

2. The oil countries will suffer a significant economic set back as oil prices will continue to fall and will settle under forty dollars a barrel. All of the alternative forms of energy will make great strides. Ethanol will be a boon to farmers, wind power will expand greatly, bio diesel will become a more common domestic fuel, and both the hybrid and hydrogen fueled cars will make headway. Americans will finally realize the strategic importance of dependence on foreign oil and it will be patriotism that weans us off the need for Middle Eastern tyrants.

3. Falling oil prices will upset the Middle East. Iran will have less money to invest in Hezbollah and for other mischief making in the world. Domestic unrest will result in Mahmoud Ahmdinejad of Iran coming under increasing pressure at home. Falling oil prices in conjunction with reduced Iranian production and U.N. backed sanctions against the Iranian regimes nuclear program will make things difficult for the little fanatic. The Israelis most certainly have a plan to prevent Iran from going nuclear but I doubt they will launch a pre-emptive strike this year. However, I wouldn't bet against it.

4. Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr will be assassinated. The fiery Iraqi Shia cleric is living on borrowed time. If he does not rein in his Mahdi army and join the political process then he will become excess baggage for the new Iraqi government. If the government doesn't do him in then Iraqi Sunnis will do the job.

5. Ford Motor Company will begin to make a strong come back in 2007. The sum of the parts of the auto giant is of greater value than the whole. With a little luck and some decent management, Ford will survive meaner and leaner for a position in the global auto market.

5. Cuba as we know it will fall. The death of Castro will mark a turning point in history. An opening to the Cuban people is impossible as long as Castro is alive. The geniuses in Washington, both Democrat and Republican can not admit that he has out witted them for 50 years. We have tried to starve them, assassinate him and used every diplomatic effort available with virtually no effect except to punish his people. He replied by constantly sticking his finger in our eye as well as dumping his criminals and the insane on our shore. When it happens some idiot will crow about American policy working.

6. The New York Times and its little sister, the Boston Globe will publicly proclaim that we have lost the Iraqi War and should evacuate post haste without any consideration for strategic interests. They will not mention that in fact we won the war a long time ago. It is the Iraqis themselves who cannot seem to win the peace. The daily violence that is occurring in Iraq at this time is almost exclusively directed at other Iraqis.

The reputation, circulation and stock price of the Times will continue to suffer

7. John Kerry will continue to campaign for the presidency every single day of 2007. He will spend very little time being a senator and no one in the Massachusetts media will mention a word of his absenteeism. They will be to busy claiming Mitt Romney spent to much time out of state. The harder Kerry campaigns and the more people get to know him, the less chance he has of gaining the 2008 nomination.

8. Hamas and Fatah will fight a bloody battle that will end with exhaustion from killing one another. With the Iranians unable to continue to fund them and with the Saudis busy trying to protect Iraqi Sunnis, the Palestinians will become of less interest in the Arab world. A land for peace deal will still be unlikely but a chance is getting closer.

9. Scooter Libby will be exonerated. During the course of the trial Joe Wilson will be forced to testify and he will be asked questions such as, why weren't you paid by the CIA for your Nigerian trip? Why didn't you submit a written report? Why did the CIA allow you to do an op ed piece in the New York Times? How many times did you tell people your wife, Valerie Plame worked for the CIA?

10. Saddam Hussein will be hanged and there won't be much of a reaction in Iraq except the silent cheers from the many mass graves.

11. North Korea will not conduct another nuclear test nor will they launch a multi-stage missile. The Chinese will tell "Dear Leader" to lighten up or face economic sanctions. President Bush will not move an inch. He will neither lift the financial sanctions or pay any blackmail to North Korea.

12. Condoleeza Rice's name will come up more and more in Republican political circles as a potential candidate for the Vice Presidency. There won't be as many fawning pieces in the press about her as there will be about Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton however there won't be any hit pieces either. The Republicans can only hope that the 2008 face off might be Romney or Giuliani and Rice against Clinton/Obama.

13. The residential real estate shake out will continue well into 2007 with prices continuing to drop and foreclosures reaching record levels. The Fed will give up the inflation ghost around March or April and start to lower interest rates. With the discount rate currently at %5.25 they will cut sharply over the summer in an effort to fend of recession. The stock market will continue to rise during the first quarter and will respond favorably to rate cuts. The market will not finish the year 2007 up if the Fed does not engineer a soft landing.

14. Darfur will be on the lips of a lot of people in world governments and at the U.N. Nobody will propose any direct action to solve the problem.

15. Nancy Pelosi, Charles Rangel, John Conyers and Teddy Kennedy will be regularly featured on Hardball and other friendly outlets. The Democrats will propose very little legislation on the domestic front and will offer no realistic solution to the Iraqi situation. Harry Reid is the next Washington insider to have legal and ethics problems. Medicare and Social Security will not be reformed nor will any meaningful action be taken.

15. The New England Patriots or the San Diego Chargers will win the Super Bowl. The San Antonio Spurs will win the NBA championship. Some one will win the Stanley Cup but then who cares?

16. Some celebutante will either go completely nude in the street or will be caught having sex in public. This behaviour will continue until it translates into a drop in popularity rather than an increase.

17. Donald Trump will write a book on how to succeed by having your father give you a couple hundred thousand dollars.

18. Borat will be beaten to a bloody pulp when he tries to make a fool out of a guy in Detroit.

19. The Japanese will consider modifying their constitution.

20. A superstar performer will be discovered on YouTube.

21. Your Hi Def TV will be offered at a price %20 lower a week after you buy it. You will own more than one Ipod. Blue tooth receivers will soon be sticking out of every one's ear.

Just a few thoughts on the up coming year. Let me close by saying it is good to be U.S. and that we are really only in the 50th year or so of what will be a long American empire that will help to eventually bring peace, health and prosperity to the world. Happy New Year!

Sunday, December 24, 2006

The DPW barn

From an historical perspective, the old axiom of "if I knew then what I know now" applies to a number of decisions the town made during the fifties and sixties. The most egregious example is the main sewer line that runs through the main well field. I can say with some degree of certainty that if a similar proposal was made today it would be received with hilarity.

A similar decision was made in the sixties when the town in its wisdom decided to site a salt shed at the town public works barn on Great Meadow Road. The DPW site is located directly across the street from the Great Meadow well field and it should have come as no surprise that a few years later it was determined that there was a rise in the level of salt in the town's drinking water.

Today's rumination is on the subject of the DPW barn itself. Why was the barn sited where it is and considering its environmentally delicate location why has the town not taken any steps to move it? In search of these answers I began this Christmas Eve morning with a little jaunt through the 600 pages of Edward Fogelberg's historical work on Burlington. Strangely, there does not appear to be a single reference to the barn or even the salt shed fiasco in the book.

Undaunted, I then slipped my cd copy of the over 800 articles Fogelberg had written for the Daily Times Chronicle from 1979 through 1994. Compiled over three years of tireless effort by James Ashworth, the collection is an in depth look at the people and places that make up the history of the community. Despite the fact that there is over 800,000 words on every subject imaginable I could not find anything on the DPW site. (This compilation is available from the Historical Commission at the ridiculously low price of ten dollars).

Of course my curiosity is now piqued and I will have to embark on a "mission from God" (line stolen from the Blues Brother's movie) in order to find out the facts surrounding this historical event.

In the mean time let me tell you what I know from memory regarding this site. First and foremost is the little known fact that the town does not actually own the site. The town occupies the property as the result of a 100 year lease that was written sometime in the late fifties to early sixties. It came as the result of some negotiations with a real estate developer. That lease still has some 40 years to run.
How ever given the location of the property next to the well fields, the town began to think of relocating it in the early eighties.

Just such an opportunity came up within the negotiations between the town, state and Sun Microsystems when Sun was in the process of acquiring the old RCA, Lockheed Martin site. Included in these negotiations were discussions with the state about acquiring the State DPW barn in the center of town in exchange for various concessions the town was making in approving a Tax Incentive Financing agreement and Planned Development District that would enable Sun to build a huge campus on the site.

Town meeting approved the whole deal and Sun went on it's merry way in developing the site. Some time later when the town turned its attention to the idea of taking control of the state barn site it became apparent that the deal the town thought they were getting wasn't correct. The state replied that yes you could have the barn but at market price.

The mystery of this misunderstanding has never been fully explained. The town had appointed a special counsel, Gloria Larsen to represent us in the negotiations yet there has never been either an explanation by the town or Larsen as to what went wrong nor has there ever been any kind of legal action by the town to establish who was right.

So here we today. The site is an extremely sensitive parcel directly adjacent to our well field, sitting on our main acquifer, that is the place where all our equipment is stored and maintained complete with all the apurtenant chemicals and tools. The site is complete with storage of silt creating dirt and has pervious surfaces on top of which ride and park all sorts heavy industrial equipment.

To make matters worse we don't even own the site and when the time comes we will be responsible for any environmental clean up that might result from a nearly 100 year use as an industrial site.

Since I can't rely on Mr. Fogelberg's work on the subject I will have to actually do some research of my own. More on this subject later.

Merry Christmas, all of you beautiful Burlingtonians!

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Back on the band wagon

All it took was a few rumors that Allen Iverson was coming to Boston in a trade and suddenly the Celtics are playing like their pants are on fire. A four game winning streak is not exactly reason to start ordering championship banners, however it is enough for the faithful to generate some enthusiasm.

In an unusual scheduling quirk, the Celtics had a three game road trip that took them through New Jersey, New York and Philadelphia which resulted in two tight wins and a blow out of Philadelphia. The two notable occurrences was the break outs of both Tony Allen and Al Jefferson.

Over the past two season the two of them have been under achievers primarily because of injuries. Allen with knee problems and Jefferson with cranky ankles and then this year an appendectomy at the beginning of the season.

Big Al is now coming into his own. He has shown a tremendous amount of growth in all phases of his game. He has been staying away from foolish fouls, rebounding aggressively and his offense has been a combination of brute force and delicate finesse in the paint. His break out game came at the beginning of the streak against New Jersey with 29 points and 14 rebounds in 38 minutes and continued last night with 28 points and 10 boards. Jefferson is averaging over 30 minutes a night primarily because of the injuries to the other Celtic big men. Injuries are part of the game and Jefferson wouldn't be the first young player to grab hold of opportunity.

Tony Allen has been another story entirely. Allen has tantalizing physical skills and has both an idea on how to play defense as well as a willingness to run the floor. He has been an after thought for most of the year until Wally Scerbiak got hurt. Since assuming the starting position, Allen has been a Tasmanian devil on the court culminating in last nights career effort. In the full 48 minute performance Allen submitting a complete stat line with 30 points on 11 for 13 shooting from the floor, 3 steals, 8 rebounds a block and three assists, all while doing a serviceable defensive job on Carmelo Anthony. It sounds preposterous but Allen held Anthony to 42 points.

Fortunately for all of us this comes at just the right time to perhaps change managements thinking about considering the acquisition of Allen Iverson. Yes Iverson is a unique talent who scores at will and can put bodies in the seats. But just as sure as he can torch you for 30 it is just as true that he is a coach killing cancer that would be a terrible influence on a young team. The features and benefits of Iverson along with his 60 million dollars remaining on his contract make it a disaster in the making if the Celtics acquire him.

It will be interesting to see how the rest of league gauges the worth of Iverson. So far there have been a lot of quotes from players about how they would love to play with him but so far there hasn't been much in the press in terms of a substantive offer to Philadelphia for his services. This may be a case where everyone will say the right things while they hope somebody else does the stupid thing.

In any event I am back on the Celtic band wagon. They have been a disappointment for the last 20 years but I can be patient. After all, I waited over 50 years for the Red Sox and they came through.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Call the Boras bluff

Daisuke Matsuzaka can either sign with the Red Sox or he can go back to Japan and play for two more years for the Seibu Lions. If that happens he would go back and be ridiculed by his country men and lose a substantial amount of "face".

Super agent Boras would have you believe that Matsuzaka is perfectly willing to do that unless he gets a contract commensurate with other big name pitching signings in recent days. That would be great if Matsuzaka was on the same level as the other pitchers but the fact of the matter is that he isn't. At the moment he is an unproven commodity upon whom the Red Sox have lavished 51 millions dollars for the right to give him a chance to prove his mettle at the major league level.

The Sox are reported to be in the 8 million dollar a year range in their contract offer and so far Boras has refused to even return a phone call. This has caused consternation in the Sox front office to the point that Mr. Henry has dispatched top brass to the West coast to wait on the agent's door step until they get a counter proposal.

At some point in time before the Thursday night deadline someone will have to get to Daisuke Matsuzaka and tell him what the risks are here. If he goes back to Japan with no contract, he will be laboring for another two years at short money with a tarnished reputation and the chance that an injury may significantly reduce his value.

Boras is gambling that the Sox are in some kind of a hole that forces them to spend the 51 million in rights fees plus something in the order of another 80 to 100 million to sign Matsuzaka. Guess again. If he doesn't sign that 51 million can be just as easily put into play somewhere else.

Boras cannot change the dynamics here. His client can sign with the Sox or he can hit the road back to the Japanese Central league. Sox management should sit tight and call the Boras bluff. The worst that can happen is that they save 51 million.

Saturday, December 09, 2006

He's definitely not the answer

Word out of Philadelphia this morning is that Allen Iverson wants to be traded and that Philadelphia management is more than happy to accommodate him. Please God, help us prevent his landing in Boston.

Don't get me wrong, Iverson is a great player and his career stats clearly prove that. Any human being standing 6 feet tall and weighing 170 pounds that can average 28.1 points over a ten year NBA career has to be a very special talent.

However, that also brings with it some very heavy baggage. The biggest of which is his contract that reportedly owes him another 60 million dollars over this season and the next two to follow.

If the money wasn't the problem then certainly his work ethic should eliminate him from consideration. The Celtics are among the youngest teams in the NBA and are already exhibiting coach killer tendencies. What influence would the "It's only practice" Iverson have on these players? Yes, it's true that he comes to play every night but young undisciplined players need an every day fundamental approach to improving their individual skills and as a team.

More reasons to consider are who would we have to give up in a trade? Are the Celtics ready to give up on Gerald Green and Al Jefferson? There is an old Red Auerbach saying that should give us the answer. "Guards are a dime a dozen but good big men come at a premium". Trading young talented big men barely out of their teens for an aging dwarf makes absolutely no sense.

Lastly and most importantly is that this will not make the Celtics a better team. Yes, they might score more but scoring has not been their problem. They need a disciplined offense that distributes the ball around during a fast paced running game and they need to play some solid defense. Neither of these are Iverson attributes. He would average over 20 shots a game and nearly 4 turn overs. The specter of Paul Pierce and Iverson taking fifty shots a game between them in isolation moves should terrify any average Boston fan.

Saturday, December 02, 2006

Is the Globe scrutinizing everyone?

The continued hit job being done by the Globe on Mitt Romney over illegal immigrants leads to the question of whether or not the Globe will be applying the same standards across the board to other politicians as well as the paper itself.

The story revolves around Romney's use of a company that takes care of his yard.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/candidates/articles/2006/12/01/illegal_immigrants_toiled_for_governor/
The Globe thought it was such a big story they actually sent reporters to Guatemala to investigate.

This type of investigative zealousness brings up the question as to whether or not the Globe intends on continuing this theme in general or is this a Romney specific issue? Do they intend to bring more attention to the issue of illegal immigrants in Massachusetts by exposing other politicians who are exploiting this segment of the workforce or are they only interested in trying to damage Romney's presidential ambitions?

If fairness and not hypocrisy is a Globe concern then perhaps they could start right at home. Squaring the Globe blog points out a number of issues regarding the Globe's own delivery service for instance.
http://squaringtheglobe.blogspot.com/2006/12/have-illegal-immigrants-toiled-for.html

Can we expect to see an expose on just how many illegal immigrants are being exploited by the Globe everyday? Or will they tell us how they screen these employees and prevent their contractor from making the paper look stupid on this issue?

Another question they might answer is whether or not they will be changing the paper's editorial policy in general by now agitating for enforcement of immigration rules? Will they now oppose in state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants the next time it is taken up by the legislature?

If the policy has changed, then the paper's accounting department will be pleased to know that they won't have to fund any expensive trips to Guatemala to investigate the subject further. They only need station one of their young scoops around any number of places where illegal workers are picked up daily and transported to their respective job sites.

If it isn't the issue of illegal immigration or the individual themselves they are concerned with then perhaps they only need jot down the names of the companies who are using this practice. In case they didn't know, this can be done by simply reading it off the sides of the many trucks that pick up the workers.

In retrospect it seems quite foolish that the geniuses at the Globe would have exposed themselves to the same type of scrutiny that they have applied to Romney but I guess when you choose the stories that get major attention in the major Massachusetts media you can exhibit the anti Romney bias and over all general arrogance which is now on display at the Globe.

Another good example is the Globe's admirable championship of diversity in the workplace. At the Globe workplace diversity is having 2 Yale graduates amongst all the Harvard grads on the editorial board.