As 2006 winds down there will be a blizzard of year in reviews and prognostications for the future. The whole process is one that we should perform in our personal lives as well. The older we get the more likely it is that one year blends seamlessly into another so it is with good reason we make resolutions and try to specify a time frame in which they are achieved. The year in review process enables you to examine those resolutions that failed so that you can immediately incorporate them into the next year. A perfect example is losing ten pounds. I resolve to lose ten in 2007 and I predict that I won't.
On other fronts I have some bold predictions.
1. The Red Sox will win the 2007 World Series and Daisuke Matsusaka will become a household name.
2. The oil countries will suffer a significant economic set back as oil prices will continue to fall and will settle under forty dollars a barrel. All of the alternative forms of energy will make great strides. Ethanol will be a boon to farmers, wind power will expand greatly, bio diesel will become a more common domestic fuel, and both the hybrid and hydrogen fueled cars will make headway. Americans will finally realize the strategic importance of dependence on foreign oil and it will be patriotism that weans us off the need for Middle Eastern tyrants.
3. Falling oil prices will upset the Middle East. Iran will have less money to invest in Hezbollah and for other mischief making in the world. Domestic unrest will result in Mahmoud Ahmdinejad of Iran coming under increasing pressure at home. Falling oil prices in conjunction with reduced Iranian production and U.N. backed sanctions against the Iranian regimes nuclear program will make things difficult for the little fanatic. The Israelis most certainly have a plan to prevent Iran from going nuclear but I doubt they will launch a pre-emptive strike this year. However, I wouldn't bet against it.
4. Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr will be assassinated. The fiery Iraqi Shia cleric is living on borrowed time. If he does not rein in his Mahdi army and join the political process then he will become excess baggage for the new Iraqi government. If the government doesn't do him in then Iraqi Sunnis will do the job.
5. Ford Motor Company will begin to make a strong come back in 2007. The sum of the parts of the auto giant is of greater value than the whole. With a little luck and some decent management, Ford will survive meaner and leaner for a position in the global auto market.
5. Cuba as we know it will fall. The death of Castro will mark a turning point in history. An opening to the Cuban people is impossible as long as Castro is alive. The geniuses in Washington, both Democrat and Republican can not admit that he has out witted them for 50 years. We have tried to starve them, assassinate him and used every diplomatic effort available with virtually no effect except to punish his people. He replied by constantly sticking his finger in our eye as well as dumping his criminals and the insane on our shore. When it happens some idiot will crow about American policy working.
6. The New York Times and its little sister, the Boston Globe will publicly proclaim that we have lost the Iraqi War and should evacuate post haste without any consideration for strategic interests. They will not mention that in fact we won the war a long time ago. It is the Iraqis themselves who cannot seem to win the peace. The daily violence that is occurring in Iraq at this time is almost exclusively directed at other Iraqis.
The reputation, circulation and stock price of the Times will continue to suffer
7. John Kerry will continue to campaign for the presidency every single day of 2007. He will spend very little time being a senator and no one in the Massachusetts media will mention a word of his absenteeism. They will be to busy claiming Mitt Romney spent to much time out of state. The harder Kerry campaigns and the more people get to know him, the less chance he has of gaining the 2008 nomination.
8. Hamas and Fatah will fight a bloody battle that will end with exhaustion from killing one another. With the Iranians unable to continue to fund them and with the Saudis busy trying to protect Iraqi Sunnis, the Palestinians will become of less interest in the Arab world. A land for peace deal will still be unlikely but a chance is getting closer.
9. Scooter Libby will be exonerated. During the course of the trial Joe Wilson will be forced to testify and he will be asked questions such as, why weren't you paid by the CIA for your Nigerian trip? Why didn't you submit a written report? Why did the CIA allow you to do an op ed piece in the New York Times? How many times did you tell people your wife, Valerie Plame worked for the CIA?
10. Saddam Hussein will be hanged and there won't be much of a reaction in Iraq except the silent cheers from the many mass graves.
11. North Korea will not conduct another nuclear test nor will they launch a multi-stage missile. The Chinese will tell "Dear Leader" to lighten up or face economic sanctions. President Bush will not move an inch. He will neither lift the financial sanctions or pay any blackmail to North Korea.
12. Condoleeza Rice's name will come up more and more in Republican political circles as a potential candidate for the Vice Presidency. There won't be as many fawning pieces in the press about her as there will be about Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton however there won't be any hit pieces either. The Republicans can only hope that the 2008 face off might be Romney or Giuliani and Rice against Clinton/Obama.
13. The residential real estate shake out will continue well into 2007 with prices continuing to drop and foreclosures reaching record levels. The Fed will give up the inflation ghost around March or April and start to lower interest rates. With the discount rate currently at %5.25 they will cut sharply over the summer in an effort to fend of recession. The stock market will continue to rise during the first quarter and will respond favorably to rate cuts. The market will not finish the year 2007 up if the Fed does not engineer a soft landing.
14. Darfur will be on the lips of a lot of people in world governments and at the U.N. Nobody will propose any direct action to solve the problem.
15. Nancy Pelosi, Charles Rangel, John Conyers and Teddy Kennedy will be regularly featured on Hardball and other friendly outlets. The Democrats will propose very little legislation on the domestic front and will offer no realistic solution to the Iraqi situation. Harry Reid is the next Washington insider to have legal and ethics problems. Medicare and Social Security will not be reformed nor will any meaningful action be taken.
15. The New England Patriots or the San Diego Chargers will win the Super Bowl. The San Antonio Spurs will win the NBA championship. Some one will win the Stanley Cup but then who cares?
16. Some celebutante will either go completely nude in the street or will be caught having sex in public. This behaviour will continue until it translates into a drop in popularity rather than an increase.
17. Donald Trump will write a book on how to succeed by having your father give you a couple hundred thousand dollars.
18. Borat will be beaten to a bloody pulp when he tries to make a fool out of a guy in Detroit.
19. The Japanese will consider modifying their constitution.
20. A superstar performer will be discovered on YouTube.
21. Your Hi Def TV will be offered at a price %20 lower a week after you buy it. You will own more than one Ipod. Blue tooth receivers will soon be sticking out of every one's ear.
Just a few thoughts on the up coming year. Let me close by saying it is good to be U.S. and that we are really only in the 50th year or so of what will be a long American empire that will help to eventually bring peace, health and prosperity to the world. Happy New Year!
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Sunday, December 24, 2006
The DPW barn
From an historical perspective, the old axiom of "if I knew then what I know now" applies to a number of decisions the town made during the fifties and sixties. The most egregious example is the main sewer line that runs through the main well field. I can say with some degree of certainty that if a similar proposal was made today it would be received with hilarity.
A similar decision was made in the sixties when the town in its wisdom decided to site a salt shed at the town public works barn on Great Meadow Road. The DPW site is located directly across the street from the Great Meadow well field and it should have come as no surprise that a few years later it was determined that there was a rise in the level of salt in the town's drinking water.
Today's rumination is on the subject of the DPW barn itself. Why was the barn sited where it is and considering its environmentally delicate location why has the town not taken any steps to move it? In search of these answers I began this Christmas Eve morning with a little jaunt through the 600 pages of Edward Fogelberg's historical work on Burlington. Strangely, there does not appear to be a single reference to the barn or even the salt shed fiasco in the book.
Undaunted, I then slipped my cd copy of the over 800 articles Fogelberg had written for the Daily Times Chronicle from 1979 through 1994. Compiled over three years of tireless effort by James Ashworth, the collection is an in depth look at the people and places that make up the history of the community. Despite the fact that there is over 800,000 words on every subject imaginable I could not find anything on the DPW site. (This compilation is available from the Historical Commission at the ridiculously low price of ten dollars).
Of course my curiosity is now piqued and I will have to embark on a "mission from God" (line stolen from the Blues Brother's movie) in order to find out the facts surrounding this historical event.
In the mean time let me tell you what I know from memory regarding this site. First and foremost is the little known fact that the town does not actually own the site. The town occupies the property as the result of a 100 year lease that was written sometime in the late fifties to early sixties. It came as the result of some negotiations with a real estate developer. That lease still has some 40 years to run.
How ever given the location of the property next to the well fields, the town began to think of relocating it in the early eighties.
Just such an opportunity came up within the negotiations between the town, state and Sun Microsystems when Sun was in the process of acquiring the old RCA, Lockheed Martin site. Included in these negotiations were discussions with the state about acquiring the State DPW barn in the center of town in exchange for various concessions the town was making in approving a Tax Incentive Financing agreement and Planned Development District that would enable Sun to build a huge campus on the site.
Town meeting approved the whole deal and Sun went on it's merry way in developing the site. Some time later when the town turned its attention to the idea of taking control of the state barn site it became apparent that the deal the town thought they were getting wasn't correct. The state replied that yes you could have the barn but at market price.
The mystery of this misunderstanding has never been fully explained. The town had appointed a special counsel, Gloria Larsen to represent us in the negotiations yet there has never been either an explanation by the town or Larsen as to what went wrong nor has there ever been any kind of legal action by the town to establish who was right.
So here we today. The site is an extremely sensitive parcel directly adjacent to our well field, sitting on our main acquifer, that is the place where all our equipment is stored and maintained complete with all the apurtenant chemicals and tools. The site is complete with storage of silt creating dirt and has pervious surfaces on top of which ride and park all sorts heavy industrial equipment.
To make matters worse we don't even own the site and when the time comes we will be responsible for any environmental clean up that might result from a nearly 100 year use as an industrial site.
Since I can't rely on Mr. Fogelberg's work on the subject I will have to actually do some research of my own. More on this subject later.
Merry Christmas, all of you beautiful Burlingtonians!
A similar decision was made in the sixties when the town in its wisdom decided to site a salt shed at the town public works barn on Great Meadow Road. The DPW site is located directly across the street from the Great Meadow well field and it should have come as no surprise that a few years later it was determined that there was a rise in the level of salt in the town's drinking water.
Today's rumination is on the subject of the DPW barn itself. Why was the barn sited where it is and considering its environmentally delicate location why has the town not taken any steps to move it? In search of these answers I began this Christmas Eve morning with a little jaunt through the 600 pages of Edward Fogelberg's historical work on Burlington. Strangely, there does not appear to be a single reference to the barn or even the salt shed fiasco in the book.
Undaunted, I then slipped my cd copy of the over 800 articles Fogelberg had written for the Daily Times Chronicle from 1979 through 1994. Compiled over three years of tireless effort by James Ashworth, the collection is an in depth look at the people and places that make up the history of the community. Despite the fact that there is over 800,000 words on every subject imaginable I could not find anything on the DPW site. (This compilation is available from the Historical Commission at the ridiculously low price of ten dollars).
Of course my curiosity is now piqued and I will have to embark on a "mission from God" (line stolen from the Blues Brother's movie) in order to find out the facts surrounding this historical event.
In the mean time let me tell you what I know from memory regarding this site. First and foremost is the little known fact that the town does not actually own the site. The town occupies the property as the result of a 100 year lease that was written sometime in the late fifties to early sixties. It came as the result of some negotiations with a real estate developer. That lease still has some 40 years to run.
How ever given the location of the property next to the well fields, the town began to think of relocating it in the early eighties.
Just such an opportunity came up within the negotiations between the town, state and Sun Microsystems when Sun was in the process of acquiring the old RCA, Lockheed Martin site. Included in these negotiations were discussions with the state about acquiring the State DPW barn in the center of town in exchange for various concessions the town was making in approving a Tax Incentive Financing agreement and Planned Development District that would enable Sun to build a huge campus on the site.
Town meeting approved the whole deal and Sun went on it's merry way in developing the site. Some time later when the town turned its attention to the idea of taking control of the state barn site it became apparent that the deal the town thought they were getting wasn't correct. The state replied that yes you could have the barn but at market price.
The mystery of this misunderstanding has never been fully explained. The town had appointed a special counsel, Gloria Larsen to represent us in the negotiations yet there has never been either an explanation by the town or Larsen as to what went wrong nor has there ever been any kind of legal action by the town to establish who was right.
So here we today. The site is an extremely sensitive parcel directly adjacent to our well field, sitting on our main acquifer, that is the place where all our equipment is stored and maintained complete with all the apurtenant chemicals and tools. The site is complete with storage of silt creating dirt and has pervious surfaces on top of which ride and park all sorts heavy industrial equipment.
To make matters worse we don't even own the site and when the time comes we will be responsible for any environmental clean up that might result from a nearly 100 year use as an industrial site.
Since I can't rely on Mr. Fogelberg's work on the subject I will have to actually do some research of my own. More on this subject later.
Merry Christmas, all of you beautiful Burlingtonians!
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Back on the band wagon
All it took was a few rumors that Allen Iverson was coming to Boston in a trade and suddenly the Celtics are playing like their pants are on fire. A four game winning streak is not exactly reason to start ordering championship banners, however it is enough for the faithful to generate some enthusiasm.
In an unusual scheduling quirk, the Celtics had a three game road trip that took them through New Jersey, New York and Philadelphia which resulted in two tight wins and a blow out of Philadelphia. The two notable occurrences was the break outs of both Tony Allen and Al Jefferson.
Over the past two season the two of them have been under achievers primarily because of injuries. Allen with knee problems and Jefferson with cranky ankles and then this year an appendectomy at the beginning of the season.
Big Al is now coming into his own. He has shown a tremendous amount of growth in all phases of his game. He has been staying away from foolish fouls, rebounding aggressively and his offense has been a combination of brute force and delicate finesse in the paint. His break out game came at the beginning of the streak against New Jersey with 29 points and 14 rebounds in 38 minutes and continued last night with 28 points and 10 boards. Jefferson is averaging over 30 minutes a night primarily because of the injuries to the other Celtic big men. Injuries are part of the game and Jefferson wouldn't be the first young player to grab hold of opportunity.
Tony Allen has been another story entirely. Allen has tantalizing physical skills and has both an idea on how to play defense as well as a willingness to run the floor. He has been an after thought for most of the year until Wally Scerbiak got hurt. Since assuming the starting position, Allen has been a Tasmanian devil on the court culminating in last nights career effort. In the full 48 minute performance Allen submitting a complete stat line with 30 points on 11 for 13 shooting from the floor, 3 steals, 8 rebounds a block and three assists, all while doing a serviceable defensive job on Carmelo Anthony. It sounds preposterous but Allen held Anthony to 42 points.
Fortunately for all of us this comes at just the right time to perhaps change managements thinking about considering the acquisition of Allen Iverson. Yes Iverson is a unique talent who scores at will and can put bodies in the seats. But just as sure as he can torch you for 30 it is just as true that he is a coach killing cancer that would be a terrible influence on a young team. The features and benefits of Iverson along with his 60 million dollars remaining on his contract make it a disaster in the making if the Celtics acquire him.
It will be interesting to see how the rest of league gauges the worth of Iverson. So far there have been a lot of quotes from players about how they would love to play with him but so far there hasn't been much in the press in terms of a substantive offer to Philadelphia for his services. This may be a case where everyone will say the right things while they hope somebody else does the stupid thing.
In any event I am back on the Celtic band wagon. They have been a disappointment for the last 20 years but I can be patient. After all, I waited over 50 years for the Red Sox and they came through.
In an unusual scheduling quirk, the Celtics had a three game road trip that took them through New Jersey, New York and Philadelphia which resulted in two tight wins and a blow out of Philadelphia. The two notable occurrences was the break outs of both Tony Allen and Al Jefferson.
Over the past two season the two of them have been under achievers primarily because of injuries. Allen with knee problems and Jefferson with cranky ankles and then this year an appendectomy at the beginning of the season.
Big Al is now coming into his own. He has shown a tremendous amount of growth in all phases of his game. He has been staying away from foolish fouls, rebounding aggressively and his offense has been a combination of brute force and delicate finesse in the paint. His break out game came at the beginning of the streak against New Jersey with 29 points and 14 rebounds in 38 minutes and continued last night with 28 points and 10 boards. Jefferson is averaging over 30 minutes a night primarily because of the injuries to the other Celtic big men. Injuries are part of the game and Jefferson wouldn't be the first young player to grab hold of opportunity.
Tony Allen has been another story entirely. Allen has tantalizing physical skills and has both an idea on how to play defense as well as a willingness to run the floor. He has been an after thought for most of the year until Wally Scerbiak got hurt. Since assuming the starting position, Allen has been a Tasmanian devil on the court culminating in last nights career effort. In the full 48 minute performance Allen submitting a complete stat line with 30 points on 11 for 13 shooting from the floor, 3 steals, 8 rebounds a block and three assists, all while doing a serviceable defensive job on Carmelo Anthony. It sounds preposterous but Allen held Anthony to 42 points.
Fortunately for all of us this comes at just the right time to perhaps change managements thinking about considering the acquisition of Allen Iverson. Yes Iverson is a unique talent who scores at will and can put bodies in the seats. But just as sure as he can torch you for 30 it is just as true that he is a coach killing cancer that would be a terrible influence on a young team. The features and benefits of Iverson along with his 60 million dollars remaining on his contract make it a disaster in the making if the Celtics acquire him.
It will be interesting to see how the rest of league gauges the worth of Iverson. So far there have been a lot of quotes from players about how they would love to play with him but so far there hasn't been much in the press in terms of a substantive offer to Philadelphia for his services. This may be a case where everyone will say the right things while they hope somebody else does the stupid thing.
In any event I am back on the Celtic band wagon. They have been a disappointment for the last 20 years but I can be patient. After all, I waited over 50 years for the Red Sox and they came through.
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Call the Boras bluff
Daisuke Matsuzaka can either sign with the Red Sox or he can go back to Japan and play for two more years for the Seibu Lions. If that happens he would go back and be ridiculed by his country men and lose a substantial amount of "face".
Super agent Boras would have you believe that Matsuzaka is perfectly willing to do that unless he gets a contract commensurate with other big name pitching signings in recent days. That would be great if Matsuzaka was on the same level as the other pitchers but the fact of the matter is that he isn't. At the moment he is an unproven commodity upon whom the Red Sox have lavished 51 millions dollars for the right to give him a chance to prove his mettle at the major league level.
The Sox are reported to be in the 8 million dollar a year range in their contract offer and so far Boras has refused to even return a phone call. This has caused consternation in the Sox front office to the point that Mr. Henry has dispatched top brass to the West coast to wait on the agent's door step until they get a counter proposal.
At some point in time before the Thursday night deadline someone will have to get to Daisuke Matsuzaka and tell him what the risks are here. If he goes back to Japan with no contract, he will be laboring for another two years at short money with a tarnished reputation and the chance that an injury may significantly reduce his value.
Boras is gambling that the Sox are in some kind of a hole that forces them to spend the 51 million in rights fees plus something in the order of another 80 to 100 million to sign Matsuzaka. Guess again. If he doesn't sign that 51 million can be just as easily put into play somewhere else.
Boras cannot change the dynamics here. His client can sign with the Sox or he can hit the road back to the Japanese Central league. Sox management should sit tight and call the Boras bluff. The worst that can happen is that they save 51 million.
Super agent Boras would have you believe that Matsuzaka is perfectly willing to do that unless he gets a contract commensurate with other big name pitching signings in recent days. That would be great if Matsuzaka was on the same level as the other pitchers but the fact of the matter is that he isn't. At the moment he is an unproven commodity upon whom the Red Sox have lavished 51 millions dollars for the right to give him a chance to prove his mettle at the major league level.
The Sox are reported to be in the 8 million dollar a year range in their contract offer and so far Boras has refused to even return a phone call. This has caused consternation in the Sox front office to the point that Mr. Henry has dispatched top brass to the West coast to wait on the agent's door step until they get a counter proposal.
At some point in time before the Thursday night deadline someone will have to get to Daisuke Matsuzaka and tell him what the risks are here. If he goes back to Japan with no contract, he will be laboring for another two years at short money with a tarnished reputation and the chance that an injury may significantly reduce his value.
Boras is gambling that the Sox are in some kind of a hole that forces them to spend the 51 million in rights fees plus something in the order of another 80 to 100 million to sign Matsuzaka. Guess again. If he doesn't sign that 51 million can be just as easily put into play somewhere else.
Boras cannot change the dynamics here. His client can sign with the Sox or he can hit the road back to the Japanese Central league. Sox management should sit tight and call the Boras bluff. The worst that can happen is that they save 51 million.
Saturday, December 09, 2006
He's definitely not the answer
Word out of Philadelphia this morning is that Allen Iverson wants to be traded and that Philadelphia management is more than happy to accommodate him. Please God, help us prevent his landing in Boston.
Don't get me wrong, Iverson is a great player and his career stats clearly prove that. Any human being standing 6 feet tall and weighing 170 pounds that can average 28.1 points over a ten year NBA career has to be a very special talent.
However, that also brings with it some very heavy baggage. The biggest of which is his contract that reportedly owes him another 60 million dollars over this season and the next two to follow.
If the money wasn't the problem then certainly his work ethic should eliminate him from consideration. The Celtics are among the youngest teams in the NBA and are already exhibiting coach killer tendencies. What influence would the "It's only practice" Iverson have on these players? Yes, it's true that he comes to play every night but young undisciplined players need an every day fundamental approach to improving their individual skills and as a team.
More reasons to consider are who would we have to give up in a trade? Are the Celtics ready to give up on Gerald Green and Al Jefferson? There is an old Red Auerbach saying that should give us the answer. "Guards are a dime a dozen but good big men come at a premium". Trading young talented big men barely out of their teens for an aging dwarf makes absolutely no sense.
Lastly and most importantly is that this will not make the Celtics a better team. Yes, they might score more but scoring has not been their problem. They need a disciplined offense that distributes the ball around during a fast paced running game and they need to play some solid defense. Neither of these are Iverson attributes. He would average over 20 shots a game and nearly 4 turn overs. The specter of Paul Pierce and Iverson taking fifty shots a game between them in isolation moves should terrify any average Boston fan.
Don't get me wrong, Iverson is a great player and his career stats clearly prove that. Any human being standing 6 feet tall and weighing 170 pounds that can average 28.1 points over a ten year NBA career has to be a very special talent.
However, that also brings with it some very heavy baggage. The biggest of which is his contract that reportedly owes him another 60 million dollars over this season and the next two to follow.
If the money wasn't the problem then certainly his work ethic should eliminate him from consideration. The Celtics are among the youngest teams in the NBA and are already exhibiting coach killer tendencies. What influence would the "It's only practice" Iverson have on these players? Yes, it's true that he comes to play every night but young undisciplined players need an every day fundamental approach to improving their individual skills and as a team.
More reasons to consider are who would we have to give up in a trade? Are the Celtics ready to give up on Gerald Green and Al Jefferson? There is an old Red Auerbach saying that should give us the answer. "Guards are a dime a dozen but good big men come at a premium". Trading young talented big men barely out of their teens for an aging dwarf makes absolutely no sense.
Lastly and most importantly is that this will not make the Celtics a better team. Yes, they might score more but scoring has not been their problem. They need a disciplined offense that distributes the ball around during a fast paced running game and they need to play some solid defense. Neither of these are Iverson attributes. He would average over 20 shots a game and nearly 4 turn overs. The specter of Paul Pierce and Iverson taking fifty shots a game between them in isolation moves should terrify any average Boston fan.
Saturday, December 02, 2006
Is the Globe scrutinizing everyone?
The continued hit job being done by the Globe on Mitt Romney over illegal immigrants leads to the question of whether or not the Globe will be applying the same standards across the board to other politicians as well as the paper itself.
The story revolves around Romney's use of a company that takes care of his yard.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/candidates/articles/2006/12/01/illegal_immigrants_toiled_for_governor/
The Globe thought it was such a big story they actually sent reporters to Guatemala to investigate.
This type of investigative zealousness brings up the question as to whether or not the Globe intends on continuing this theme in general or is this a Romney specific issue? Do they intend to bring more attention to the issue of illegal immigrants in Massachusetts by exposing other politicians who are exploiting this segment of the workforce or are they only interested in trying to damage Romney's presidential ambitions?
If fairness and not hypocrisy is a Globe concern then perhaps they could start right at home. Squaring the Globe blog points out a number of issues regarding the Globe's own delivery service for instance.
http://squaringtheglobe.blogspot.com/2006/12/have-illegal-immigrants-toiled-for.html
Can we expect to see an expose on just how many illegal immigrants are being exploited by the Globe everyday? Or will they tell us how they screen these employees and prevent their contractor from making the paper look stupid on this issue?
Another question they might answer is whether or not they will be changing the paper's editorial policy in general by now agitating for enforcement of immigration rules? Will they now oppose in state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants the next time it is taken up by the legislature?
If the policy has changed, then the paper's accounting department will be pleased to know that they won't have to fund any expensive trips to Guatemala to investigate the subject further. They only need station one of their young scoops around any number of places where illegal workers are picked up daily and transported to their respective job sites.
If it isn't the issue of illegal immigration or the individual themselves they are concerned with then perhaps they only need jot down the names of the companies who are using this practice. In case they didn't know, this can be done by simply reading it off the sides of the many trucks that pick up the workers.
In retrospect it seems quite foolish that the geniuses at the Globe would have exposed themselves to the same type of scrutiny that they have applied to Romney but I guess when you choose the stories that get major attention in the major Massachusetts media you can exhibit the anti Romney bias and over all general arrogance which is now on display at the Globe.
Another good example is the Globe's admirable championship of diversity in the workplace. At the Globe workplace diversity is having 2 Yale graduates amongst all the Harvard grads on the editorial board.
The story revolves around Romney's use of a company that takes care of his yard.
http://www.boston.com/news/local/politics/candidates/articles/2006/12/01/illegal_immigrants_toiled_for_governor/
The Globe thought it was such a big story they actually sent reporters to Guatemala to investigate.
This type of investigative zealousness brings up the question as to whether or not the Globe intends on continuing this theme in general or is this a Romney specific issue? Do they intend to bring more attention to the issue of illegal immigrants in Massachusetts by exposing other politicians who are exploiting this segment of the workforce or are they only interested in trying to damage Romney's presidential ambitions?
If fairness and not hypocrisy is a Globe concern then perhaps they could start right at home. Squaring the Globe blog points out a number of issues regarding the Globe's own delivery service for instance.
http://squaringtheglobe.blogspot.com/2006/12/have-illegal-immigrants-toiled-for.html
Can we expect to see an expose on just how many illegal immigrants are being exploited by the Globe everyday? Or will they tell us how they screen these employees and prevent their contractor from making the paper look stupid on this issue?
Another question they might answer is whether or not they will be changing the paper's editorial policy in general by now agitating for enforcement of immigration rules? Will they now oppose in state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants the next time it is taken up by the legislature?
If the policy has changed, then the paper's accounting department will be pleased to know that they won't have to fund any expensive trips to Guatemala to investigate the subject further. They only need station one of their young scoops around any number of places where illegal workers are picked up daily and transported to their respective job sites.
If it isn't the issue of illegal immigration or the individual themselves they are concerned with then perhaps they only need jot down the names of the companies who are using this practice. In case they didn't know, this can be done by simply reading it off the sides of the many trucks that pick up the workers.
In retrospect it seems quite foolish that the geniuses at the Globe would have exposed themselves to the same type of scrutiny that they have applied to Romney but I guess when you choose the stories that get major attention in the major Massachusetts media you can exhibit the anti Romney bias and over all general arrogance which is now on display at the Globe.
Another good example is the Globe's admirable championship of diversity in the workplace. At the Globe workplace diversity is having 2 Yale graduates amongst all the Harvard grads on the editorial board.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Time to re-examine Grandview?
Decide is a word that comes from the same family as homicide, fratricide and genocide. A decision takes a singular route that kills off other alternatives. Such a decision was made in regard to the Grandview Farm building. After much committee work and discussion it was decided that the building should be renovated. Renovated in this case means to bring it up to current day building codes for the occupancy of people and use the building for offices and various functions.
It seemed a worthwhile project that was met with a good deal of local enthusiasm when first proposed. The farm was the centerpiece ostensibly for the 3 way land swap that resulted in the town giving up 14 acres of prime industrial space on Wheeler Road to one company, who then gave their Mountain Road property to another company who then gave the town the Grandview as well as three house lots. The town also got another pair of parcels on Mall road.
If this deal was done solely on the basis of financial considerations it would have been killed immediately. There were many political considerations however, the primary one being a comprehensive permit that was proposed on the site of the Grandview. The project consisted of several hundred units and would have been adjacent to one of the more expensive neighborhoods in town. This proposal was met with bitter opposition and soon the Grandview preservation group was joined by enthusiastic neighbors looking for a method to kill the project.
On paper the scheme looked reasonable. The town would sell off a portion of the land to a developer for 42 age restricted condos and the house lots would be sold to fund to restoration of the farm building.
The housing has been built and the pricing of the units was favorable to the buyers. The land however, was sold to the developers for a paltry sum of $300,000 with the proviso that the town would split the profits over $800,000. This part of the deal required the appointment of an auditor who would audit the costs associated with the construction to certify the profit. The building is complete without the appointment of an auditor. That in itself seems like a strange way to conduct business.
That is a small part of the problem. The major problem is that it seems now that the total renovation costs of the farm will be some where in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. If this is correct there is simply no way that the town should go forward with this project.
In retrospect it was optimistic to think that you could upgrade a nearly 250 year old wooden structure to a level satisfactory for the purposes of offices alone. To think that it would be economical to bring it up to a point where it would be handicapped accessible and able to serve as a revenue producing function hall was simply folly.
It is time to seriously review this decision and change gears. Saving the building for limited use as an example of early days in the community is commendable. Get some paint on it and take measures to perserve and renovate some of the decrepit areas. Give it over to the Historical Society for use for exhibits on an occassional basis. Any thing more grandiose than that simply cannot be justified.
It seemed a worthwhile project that was met with a good deal of local enthusiasm when first proposed. The farm was the centerpiece ostensibly for the 3 way land swap that resulted in the town giving up 14 acres of prime industrial space on Wheeler Road to one company, who then gave their Mountain Road property to another company who then gave the town the Grandview as well as three house lots. The town also got another pair of parcels on Mall road.
If this deal was done solely on the basis of financial considerations it would have been killed immediately. There were many political considerations however, the primary one being a comprehensive permit that was proposed on the site of the Grandview. The project consisted of several hundred units and would have been adjacent to one of the more expensive neighborhoods in town. This proposal was met with bitter opposition and soon the Grandview preservation group was joined by enthusiastic neighbors looking for a method to kill the project.
On paper the scheme looked reasonable. The town would sell off a portion of the land to a developer for 42 age restricted condos and the house lots would be sold to fund to restoration of the farm building.
The housing has been built and the pricing of the units was favorable to the buyers. The land however, was sold to the developers for a paltry sum of $300,000 with the proviso that the town would split the profits over $800,000. This part of the deal required the appointment of an auditor who would audit the costs associated with the construction to certify the profit. The building is complete without the appointment of an auditor. That in itself seems like a strange way to conduct business.
That is a small part of the problem. The major problem is that it seems now that the total renovation costs of the farm will be some where in the neighborhood of 3 million dollars. If this is correct there is simply no way that the town should go forward with this project.
In retrospect it was optimistic to think that you could upgrade a nearly 250 year old wooden structure to a level satisfactory for the purposes of offices alone. To think that it would be economical to bring it up to a point where it would be handicapped accessible and able to serve as a revenue producing function hall was simply folly.
It is time to seriously review this decision and change gears. Saving the building for limited use as an example of early days in the community is commendable. Get some paint on it and take measures to perserve and renovate some of the decrepit areas. Give it over to the Historical Society for use for exhibits on an occassional basis. Any thing more grandiose than that simply cannot be justified.
Friday, November 17, 2006
Random thoughts
Not a good start for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Her choice for majority leader got beaten almost 2 to 1 in the election. This apparently came as quite a shock to Congressman John Murtha who was heard to say that "he had the votes" on Chris Matthew's show. By the way, Matthews should change the name of his show from Hardball to Half Speed Fastballs Down the Middle after his gentle handling of Murtha.
Murtha also had another interesting remark when he labeled ethics and lobbying reform efforts as "total crap." Seems to me to be a tad undignified of the congressman. Murtha it seems is one of the obstacles that will have to be overcome for the proposed legislation to move forward. Murtha apparently feels that ethics reform might cramp his style.
Speaker Pelosi could also be coming up for some serious and well deserved ridicule if rumored attempts to place Congressman Alcee Hasting as the head of the house intelligence committee are true. In case you forgot, Alcee was overwhelmingly impeached by the house and then convicted in the senate for some rather nefarious conduct as as federal judge. This is a very special distinction since only about 7 judges have been impeached in the last 250 years. It is hard to imagine that a new speaker could get off to such a terrible start and squander voter good will so quickly. Let's wait and see
Not a good week for John Kerry either it seems. After the election of the Senate leadership, a photo was taken of them striding down the hall. In the background, looking almost forlorn was Sen. Kerry. The Democrats won despite Senator Kerry's late gaffes. Fortunately for the Democrats the only thing he seriously hurt was his chances for another presidential nomination.
In Massachusetts, Governor Elect Patrick made all the sounds of a middle of the road performance and merit minded manager when he made his comments about patronage appointments."The decisions will be made on qualifications and merit". Asked what effect legislators attempts to get cronies hired would have he replied, "It is not going to have any impact at all." Very noble and business like but anti patronage politicians soon get the noses of public officials out of joint. I wish him luck but this is Massachusetts or could more commonly be known as patronage heaven so it will be interesting to see how such a policy is received by the solons on Beacon Hill.
Senate majority leader Harry Reid's name came up in some reporting on disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. It is rumored that Jack has named Harry in some shadowy dealings. That will be an interesting situation to watch as it develops. The Republicans have already taken some heavy hits from Jack but what good lobbyist would pay off only one side of the aisle?
The Red Sox made all kinds of headlines with the winning bid for Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsusaka. The guy is 26 years old and is reported to have number 1 starter stuff. That means four pitches and speed on his fastball enough to punch out American League hitters. When he is signed that will give the Sox a starting five that looks pretty settled. Curt Schilling, followed by young phenoms Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett is a formidable threesome. Follow those three up with Matsusaka and Tim Wakefield and the Red Sox are suddenly very much back in the hunt for the American League East.
I managed to catch the Patriots play the Jets last Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Despite the usual terrible traffic conditions it was a very good take. The torrential rain stopped just at kickoff and stayed pretty much clear the rest of the way. The stadium experience was quite a bit better than the football experience. The Patriots simply did not play very well offensively. The play calling seemed somewhat suspect as once again they abandoned the running game much to quickly. When Dillon carried the ball he simply bowled the Jets over.
Oil prices continued to fall this week to around $55 dollars a barrel. This is quite a decline from the high of $78 but still not near to the original $28 that it started at prior to Iraq, Katrina, Nigeria, Prudhoe Bay and rampant speculation to name a few reasons why it jumped.
There seems to be a good news and bad news aspect to this. All of the products and services we buy are likely to cost less as a result, but efforts to encourage nascent alternative and domestic sources of fuel are likely to suffer as people begin to forget about foreign fuels negative strategic impact.
Will Americans give ethanol and other domestic fuels continued consideration if they are higher priced than oil? Is the patriotic effect strong enough to lessen reliance on foreign sources? It would seem to me that we ought to take steps to make sure that it does. Now might be a good time to tack on a dime or even a quarter per gallon of gasolene and earmark those funds for some major problem like Social Security or Medicare. I heard an analyst refer to the middle American grain belt as the "New Middle East" when talking about ethanol. Isn't that something that we should make sure comes true?
I used to be a 12 handicap in golf and then one year I suddenly got the yips and the shanks and what little game I had soon disappeared. The worse I played the harder I would swing, which resulted in a downward spiral of ineptitude. The last couple of years my playing rounds declined to the point where this year I played once. Playing less or in fact not playing at all was good for my mental health.
I went out with my friend a couple of weeks ago and shot about 60 on the front nine. After helicoptering a club about 50 yards I had somewhat of a miraculous golf epiphany. I found that if I kept my left shoulder still while I am coming through the ball and released my hands that I started to hit the ball with new found authority. Just to make sure I wasn't being teased by the lord of golf, I went to the driving range last week.
I was almost giddy with the results. Drive after drive went smartly down the middle and landed between 230 and 260 yards away. These were results I haven't seen in 10 or 15 years. Of course this happens like two weeks before snow will be flying so I guess I better keep those swing thoughts fresh for the next 5 months.
O.J. Simpson has written a book that his publisher says is a confession of how he murdered his wife and Ron Goldman. I wonder if anyone has contacted members of the O.J jury and asked some simple questions like "do you feel really stupid having let this creep walk the streets? Have you had any seconds thoughts and are you losing any sleep? Well you ought to be. Where's a random drive by shooting when you really need one?
Murtha also had another interesting remark when he labeled ethics and lobbying reform efforts as "total crap." Seems to me to be a tad undignified of the congressman. Murtha it seems is one of the obstacles that will have to be overcome for the proposed legislation to move forward. Murtha apparently feels that ethics reform might cramp his style.
Speaker Pelosi could also be coming up for some serious and well deserved ridicule if rumored attempts to place Congressman Alcee Hasting as the head of the house intelligence committee are true. In case you forgot, Alcee was overwhelmingly impeached by the house and then convicted in the senate for some rather nefarious conduct as as federal judge. This is a very special distinction since only about 7 judges have been impeached in the last 250 years. It is hard to imagine that a new speaker could get off to such a terrible start and squander voter good will so quickly. Let's wait and see
Not a good week for John Kerry either it seems. After the election of the Senate leadership, a photo was taken of them striding down the hall. In the background, looking almost forlorn was Sen. Kerry. The Democrats won despite Senator Kerry's late gaffes. Fortunately for the Democrats the only thing he seriously hurt was his chances for another presidential nomination.
In Massachusetts, Governor Elect Patrick made all the sounds of a middle of the road performance and merit minded manager when he made his comments about patronage appointments."The decisions will be made on qualifications and merit". Asked what effect legislators attempts to get cronies hired would have he replied, "It is not going to have any impact at all." Very noble and business like but anti patronage politicians soon get the noses of public officials out of joint. I wish him luck but this is Massachusetts or could more commonly be known as patronage heaven so it will be interesting to see how such a policy is received by the solons on Beacon Hill.
Senate majority leader Harry Reid's name came up in some reporting on disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff. It is rumored that Jack has named Harry in some shadowy dealings. That will be an interesting situation to watch as it develops. The Republicans have already taken some heavy hits from Jack but what good lobbyist would pay off only one side of the aisle?
The Red Sox made all kinds of headlines with the winning bid for Japanese pitcher Daisuke Matsusaka. The guy is 26 years old and is reported to have number 1 starter stuff. That means four pitches and speed on his fastball enough to punch out American League hitters. When he is signed that will give the Sox a starting five that looks pretty settled. Curt Schilling, followed by young phenoms Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett is a formidable threesome. Follow those three up with Matsusaka and Tim Wakefield and the Red Sox are suddenly very much back in the hunt for the American League East.
I managed to catch the Patriots play the Jets last Sunday at Gillette Stadium. Despite the usual terrible traffic conditions it was a very good take. The torrential rain stopped just at kickoff and stayed pretty much clear the rest of the way. The stadium experience was quite a bit better than the football experience. The Patriots simply did not play very well offensively. The play calling seemed somewhat suspect as once again they abandoned the running game much to quickly. When Dillon carried the ball he simply bowled the Jets over.
Oil prices continued to fall this week to around $55 dollars a barrel. This is quite a decline from the high of $78 but still not near to the original $28 that it started at prior to Iraq, Katrina, Nigeria, Prudhoe Bay and rampant speculation to name a few reasons why it jumped.
There seems to be a good news and bad news aspect to this. All of the products and services we buy are likely to cost less as a result, but efforts to encourage nascent alternative and domestic sources of fuel are likely to suffer as people begin to forget about foreign fuels negative strategic impact.
Will Americans give ethanol and other domestic fuels continued consideration if they are higher priced than oil? Is the patriotic effect strong enough to lessen reliance on foreign sources? It would seem to me that we ought to take steps to make sure that it does. Now might be a good time to tack on a dime or even a quarter per gallon of gasolene and earmark those funds for some major problem like Social Security or Medicare. I heard an analyst refer to the middle American grain belt as the "New Middle East" when talking about ethanol. Isn't that something that we should make sure comes true?
I used to be a 12 handicap in golf and then one year I suddenly got the yips and the shanks and what little game I had soon disappeared. The worse I played the harder I would swing, which resulted in a downward spiral of ineptitude. The last couple of years my playing rounds declined to the point where this year I played once. Playing less or in fact not playing at all was good for my mental health.
I went out with my friend a couple of weeks ago and shot about 60 on the front nine. After helicoptering a club about 50 yards I had somewhat of a miraculous golf epiphany. I found that if I kept my left shoulder still while I am coming through the ball and released my hands that I started to hit the ball with new found authority. Just to make sure I wasn't being teased by the lord of golf, I went to the driving range last week.
I was almost giddy with the results. Drive after drive went smartly down the middle and landed between 230 and 260 yards away. These were results I haven't seen in 10 or 15 years. Of course this happens like two weeks before snow will be flying so I guess I better keep those swing thoughts fresh for the next 5 months.
O.J. Simpson has written a book that his publisher says is a confession of how he murdered his wife and Ron Goldman. I wonder if anyone has contacted members of the O.J jury and asked some simple questions like "do you feel really stupid having let this creep walk the streets? Have you had any seconds thoughts and are you losing any sleep? Well you ought to be. Where's a random drive by shooting when you really need one?
Saturday, November 11, 2006
Historically hopeful
When it comes to the Boston Celtics I am always optimistic. Over the last 20 years of non championship futility, it usually takes a good chunk of the season before I throw in the towel.
Well after watching this year's edition go 1 and 4 over the first five games it is hard to get very enthusiastic about this club. Quite frankly so far the only thing worse than their play has been Doc Rivers coaching. These guys came out of training camp flat as a pancake and have gone down hill since.
This is another year where we seem to have an abundance of young talent but good old Doc can't seem to settle on a steady rotation. This has been his hallmark to date in his Celtic tenure. No one knows from night to night who is going to be marched out on the court.
The team despite its over all youth and athleticism does not do well in the running game. The half court offense boils down to watching Paul Pierce or Wally Scerbiak. The transition defense is plain and simply very bad.
New addition point guard Sebastian Telfair is a bust so far. He is a clay statue on defense and he does not look like much of an assist man. The team over all has fifty percent more turnovers than their opponents. In their one win of the young season, Paul Pierce scored 35 points and had an astounding 12 turnovers.
The frontline other than Ryan Gomes is a collection of under achievers. It was hoped that this would be break out years for Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson, but hard luck Al is down for a month plus because of an appendectomy and Perkins starts fouling when he gets to the scorers table.
Michael Olowokandi is a surprise even making the team and Theo Ratliff can be a defensive force but did anyone think that these two would fit into the plans at all?
Other disappointments are Tony Allen who at times looks completely lost on the floor. Nothing could illustrate this more than the fact that in 80 minutes of play he has managed to make 4 of 15 field goal attempts. The free throw shooting has been abominable. Pierce is shooting 65%, Gomes 60% and rookie Rajon Rondo at 54%. Unbelievably, Perkins has played a total of 90 minutes this season and has managed to get to the free throw line twice missing both.
The only potential bright spots seem to be that Rondo can bring some speed and excitement when he gets in and that maybe Gerald Green won't get buried on the bench. Other than that it seems like it is going to be a long and wholly un-entertaining season.
Well after watching this year's edition go 1 and 4 over the first five games it is hard to get very enthusiastic about this club. Quite frankly so far the only thing worse than their play has been Doc Rivers coaching. These guys came out of training camp flat as a pancake and have gone down hill since.
This is another year where we seem to have an abundance of young talent but good old Doc can't seem to settle on a steady rotation. This has been his hallmark to date in his Celtic tenure. No one knows from night to night who is going to be marched out on the court.
The team despite its over all youth and athleticism does not do well in the running game. The half court offense boils down to watching Paul Pierce or Wally Scerbiak. The transition defense is plain and simply very bad.
New addition point guard Sebastian Telfair is a bust so far. He is a clay statue on defense and he does not look like much of an assist man. The team over all has fifty percent more turnovers than their opponents. In their one win of the young season, Paul Pierce scored 35 points and had an astounding 12 turnovers.
The frontline other than Ryan Gomes is a collection of under achievers. It was hoped that this would be break out years for Kendrick Perkins and Al Jefferson, but hard luck Al is down for a month plus because of an appendectomy and Perkins starts fouling when he gets to the scorers table.
Michael Olowokandi is a surprise even making the team and Theo Ratliff can be a defensive force but did anyone think that these two would fit into the plans at all?
Other disappointments are Tony Allen who at times looks completely lost on the floor. Nothing could illustrate this more than the fact that in 80 minutes of play he has managed to make 4 of 15 field goal attempts. The free throw shooting has been abominable. Pierce is shooting 65%, Gomes 60% and rookie Rajon Rondo at 54%. Unbelievably, Perkins has played a total of 90 minutes this season and has managed to get to the free throw line twice missing both.
The only potential bright spots seem to be that Rondo can bring some speed and excitement when he gets in and that maybe Gerald Green won't get buried on the bench. Other than that it seems like it is going to be a long and wholly un-entertaining season.
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
A must win for the Democrats
The mid terms will finally come to a close today. In history this is usually a difficult day for an incumbent president's party. Given the amount of controversy and criticism President Bush has received surrounding the Iraq war it would be an election or Rovian miracle for the Republicans to stave of election day disaster.
Disaster should be defined however. The Democrats need 16 house seats and 6 senate seats to take over both houses of congress. On the surface it would seem quite plausible for them to do this.
Digging a little deeper however exposes some things that make it a bit more difficult, particularly in the senate. The Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats but that also means they need to run the table on the 18 seats that they are currently defending.
Two weeks ago it would have seemed to be a slam dunk for a tidal wave striking the Republicans in both houses but that all seemed to change over the past week. The face of that changed seems to have been the national attention given to John Kerry's remarks regarding soldiers end up in Iraq. A joke it may have meant to be but an insult is was it was interpreted as.
This may have only been the straw that broke the camel's back of the Democratic momentum. Their are a number of more important underlying issues that may make voters think twice in the voting booth.
In no particular order of importance are the following reasons for the Republicans to feel somewhat heartened; Oil prices have been dropping like a stone and this has very positive impact on pocketbooks at home. With the rise in the Dow to historic levels, the average voter can see tangible results in his 401k. The unemployment rate is near 4.4% which by any measure is a very positive number. Corporate profits have continued strong and the merger and acquisitions business has picked up substantially. The bond market has remained steady with the 30 year treasury still well below five percent. By these indicators alone the Democrats have an uphill battle.
In another item not given much media attention. The government had posted a large number of Iraqi documents captured during the war. In those documents were allegedly very sensitive plans for nuclear devices. The Democrats were placed in the tenuous position of continuing to argue against the idea that Iraq had WMD's yet were forced to call for the removal of Iraq's nuclear plans from the net.
In foreign policy issues, the major news was the North Koreans announcing their intention to return to the six party talks. The significant reaction here was the stiff response announced by the Japanese. They said don't bother to come back unless you renounce nuclear weapons.
The main issue for the Democrats remains the Iraq War and try as they might to exploit anti war feelings they have been stoked but are not the raging issue that the Democrats could exploit in a strong return to power. This was apparent early on when the party dumped Joe Lieberman in Connecticut. The hard left in that state will be unable to fend off an independent run by Lieberman and the question is only how badly Lamont will be defeated.
All in all it should be a good day for the Democrats as they probably will win enough seats to take the house. It will be a disaster for them if they don't.
Disaster should be defined however. The Democrats need 16 house seats and 6 senate seats to take over both houses of congress. On the surface it would seem quite plausible for them to do this.
Digging a little deeper however exposes some things that make it a bit more difficult, particularly in the senate. The Democrats need a net gain of 6 seats but that also means they need to run the table on the 18 seats that they are currently defending.
Two weeks ago it would have seemed to be a slam dunk for a tidal wave striking the Republicans in both houses but that all seemed to change over the past week. The face of that changed seems to have been the national attention given to John Kerry's remarks regarding soldiers end up in Iraq. A joke it may have meant to be but an insult is was it was interpreted as.
This may have only been the straw that broke the camel's back of the Democratic momentum. Their are a number of more important underlying issues that may make voters think twice in the voting booth.
In no particular order of importance are the following reasons for the Republicans to feel somewhat heartened; Oil prices have been dropping like a stone and this has very positive impact on pocketbooks at home. With the rise in the Dow to historic levels, the average voter can see tangible results in his 401k. The unemployment rate is near 4.4% which by any measure is a very positive number. Corporate profits have continued strong and the merger and acquisitions business has picked up substantially. The bond market has remained steady with the 30 year treasury still well below five percent. By these indicators alone the Democrats have an uphill battle.
In another item not given much media attention. The government had posted a large number of Iraqi documents captured during the war. In those documents were allegedly very sensitive plans for nuclear devices. The Democrats were placed in the tenuous position of continuing to argue against the idea that Iraq had WMD's yet were forced to call for the removal of Iraq's nuclear plans from the net.
In foreign policy issues, the major news was the North Koreans announcing their intention to return to the six party talks. The significant reaction here was the stiff response announced by the Japanese. They said don't bother to come back unless you renounce nuclear weapons.
The main issue for the Democrats remains the Iraq War and try as they might to exploit anti war feelings they have been stoked but are not the raging issue that the Democrats could exploit in a strong return to power. This was apparent early on when the party dumped Joe Lieberman in Connecticut. The hard left in that state will be unable to fend off an independent run by Lieberman and the question is only how badly Lamont will be defeated.
All in all it should be a good day for the Democrats as they probably will win enough seats to take the house. It will be a disaster for them if they don't.
Sunday, November 05, 2006
Big matchup
It is week nine in the NFL season and the New England Patriots are positioned comfortably at the top of their division standings with 6 wins and 1 loss. It doesn't mean a great deal at this point in a grueling 16 game regular season however it is useful to mention that the team is at this level without hitting on all cylinders yet.
The passing game has been the number one concern as the offense is integrating a whole new core of receivers with the exception of Troy Brown. Every one knows at this point that Tom Brady has lost David Givens and Deon Branch. This point was brought up constantly during last Monday night's game against the Vikings. Tony Kornheiser was whining constantly about Belichik "using up" players and letting them go. What Tony forgot to give much consideration to was the fact that most of the players Belichik has let walk have not (so far) achieved at the same level as when they were with the Patriots. Perhaps these players achieved at high levels because of the team and Belichik's schemes and coaching skills? Perhaps they ought to be grateful for getting to the point where they could cash in on a big payday?
In any event some of the concern regarding the passing game was alleviated with the team's performance Monday night. The Vikings were perhaps much softer than their record indicated but that is being said in hind sight after the aerial destruction wrought upon them by Brady and the ten different Patriots who caught balls against them.
Tonight's big match up against Manning and the Colts is likely to have a game plan entirely different than what Brady unleashed on the Vikings. Unlike the Vikings, the Colts have a very weak run defense and Belichik will use this to his advantage. The best defense against Manning's air circus is to keep him on the bench. Belichik will likely try to accomplish this with a ground game designed to eat up a lot of time and yards.
Look to see a lot more of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney ripping off consistent gains against the Colts who are both undermanned and under sized along the front seven. Out of a total of 61 plays against the Vikings, only 15 were running plays. Look for almost a complete reversal of that number this week as the Patriots will demonstrate once again that they simply change gears and game plans to attack the particular foe that is next on the schedule.
On the defensive side of the ball, the team will have its hands full as Manning and his two wide outs Reggie Wayne and the incomparable Marvin Harrison have been racking up enormous yardage during their current 7 consecutive win run. The defensive key will be pressure on Manning from the front three or probably a four man front. If Seymour and the crew (look for Jarvis Green to be a factor) can pressure Manning quickly without blitz help, then he will be looking into a defensive backfield with a lot of double coverage on his wideouts.
Manning has not had a lot of luck against the Patriots but did administer a good beating on us last year. As Belichik constantly reminds us, every game in the NFL is a new set of circumstances. The Colts are riding high at the moment but they are at Foxboro up against a veteran Patriot defense that has seen him many times over.
The defense has proven that they can hold Manning to a reasonably human performance. The question becomes whether or not the offense is continuing its week to week improvement. What we have come to expect watching this club is that they are steadily working new players into the program and that each week the club operates more smoothly.
Tonight will be a huge test of that progress. Since I am the consumate "homer", I think that Brady, Seymour and company will bring the Colts crashing back to earth and will expose weaknesses in them that other coaches will be exploiting the rest of the year.
Don't dare waste any money on this but I have them two touch downs better at Patriots 28, Colts 14.
The passing game has been the number one concern as the offense is integrating a whole new core of receivers with the exception of Troy Brown. Every one knows at this point that Tom Brady has lost David Givens and Deon Branch. This point was brought up constantly during last Monday night's game against the Vikings. Tony Kornheiser was whining constantly about Belichik "using up" players and letting them go. What Tony forgot to give much consideration to was the fact that most of the players Belichik has let walk have not (so far) achieved at the same level as when they were with the Patriots. Perhaps these players achieved at high levels because of the team and Belichik's schemes and coaching skills? Perhaps they ought to be grateful for getting to the point where they could cash in on a big payday?
In any event some of the concern regarding the passing game was alleviated with the team's performance Monday night. The Vikings were perhaps much softer than their record indicated but that is being said in hind sight after the aerial destruction wrought upon them by Brady and the ten different Patriots who caught balls against them.
Tonight's big match up against Manning and the Colts is likely to have a game plan entirely different than what Brady unleashed on the Vikings. Unlike the Vikings, the Colts have a very weak run defense and Belichik will use this to his advantage. The best defense against Manning's air circus is to keep him on the bench. Belichik will likely try to accomplish this with a ground game designed to eat up a lot of time and yards.
Look to see a lot more of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney ripping off consistent gains against the Colts who are both undermanned and under sized along the front seven. Out of a total of 61 plays against the Vikings, only 15 were running plays. Look for almost a complete reversal of that number this week as the Patriots will demonstrate once again that they simply change gears and game plans to attack the particular foe that is next on the schedule.
On the defensive side of the ball, the team will have its hands full as Manning and his two wide outs Reggie Wayne and the incomparable Marvin Harrison have been racking up enormous yardage during their current 7 consecutive win run. The defensive key will be pressure on Manning from the front three or probably a four man front. If Seymour and the crew (look for Jarvis Green to be a factor) can pressure Manning quickly without blitz help, then he will be looking into a defensive backfield with a lot of double coverage on his wideouts.
Manning has not had a lot of luck against the Patriots but did administer a good beating on us last year. As Belichik constantly reminds us, every game in the NFL is a new set of circumstances. The Colts are riding high at the moment but they are at Foxboro up against a veteran Patriot defense that has seen him many times over.
The defense has proven that they can hold Manning to a reasonably human performance. The question becomes whether or not the offense is continuing its week to week improvement. What we have come to expect watching this club is that they are steadily working new players into the program and that each week the club operates more smoothly.
Tonight will be a huge test of that progress. Since I am the consumate "homer", I think that Brady, Seymour and company will bring the Colts crashing back to earth and will expose weaknesses in them that other coaches will be exploiting the rest of the year.
Don't dare waste any money on this but I have them two touch downs better at Patriots 28, Colts 14.
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
Kerry Redux
Almost on the eve of what might be an election resurgence for the Democrats, John Kerry has stepped forward to diminish his party's chances. It is apparent that Kerry is suffering from campaign stress disorder with his comments regarding U.S. troops.
Here is the comment which at the center of the building storm.
''You know, education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq.'' Just in case you were wondering if Kerry was misquoted here is a video of his remarks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLuMWiQ6r2o
The spin being placed on this by the Kerry camp is that it was a botched joke regarding Bush getting us mired in Iraq. Once again Kerry attempts nuance when a simple straight forward apology should have been the order of the day.
Instead Kerry has chosen to dig in his heels and get into a contest that not only will hurt him but will also drag down the party with him. Remember that this is not the first time that Kerry has made disparaging remarks about the United States military. It was his famous congressional testimony after his 90 day Viet Nam tour that was the primary motivation behind the "Swift Boat Veterans" campaign that did enormous damage to his presidential aspirations.
Kerry supposedly learned from that experience that he should go immediately on the attack when he is criticized. Like always, a strategy designed out of hind sight regarding one incident is not always effective in the new situation. So it looks in this case. This is one of the quotes from Kerry response to Republican jibes at him.
"I'm not going to be lectured by a stuffed-suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq."
This has nothing to do with Michael J. Fox or Iraq, nor is it lies about John Kerry. He said what he said and the whole nation can see it come directly from his mouth.
If the Democrats do not gain a majority in either the house or the senate, this incident will be looked upon as a major factor. As a seasoned politician, Kerry should have had the discipline and the knowledge to know that as the standard bearer of the party in the last presidential campaign, his every word could be important.
In his zeal he has blundered. It will surely end any chance he has of gaining the nomination once again and it has the potential to mushroom into snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for the Democrats.
Here is the comment which at the center of the building storm.
''You know, education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq.'' Just in case you were wondering if Kerry was misquoted here is a video of his remarks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLuMWiQ6r2o
The spin being placed on this by the Kerry camp is that it was a botched joke regarding Bush getting us mired in Iraq. Once again Kerry attempts nuance when a simple straight forward apology should have been the order of the day.
Instead Kerry has chosen to dig in his heels and get into a contest that not only will hurt him but will also drag down the party with him. Remember that this is not the first time that Kerry has made disparaging remarks about the United States military. It was his famous congressional testimony after his 90 day Viet Nam tour that was the primary motivation behind the "Swift Boat Veterans" campaign that did enormous damage to his presidential aspirations.
Kerry supposedly learned from that experience that he should go immediately on the attack when he is criticized. Like always, a strategy designed out of hind sight regarding one incident is not always effective in the new situation. So it looks in this case. This is one of the quotes from Kerry response to Republican jibes at him.
"I'm not going to be lectured by a stuffed-suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq."
This has nothing to do with Michael J. Fox or Iraq, nor is it lies about John Kerry. He said what he said and the whole nation can see it come directly from his mouth.
If the Democrats do not gain a majority in either the house or the senate, this incident will be looked upon as a major factor. As a seasoned politician, Kerry should have had the discipline and the knowledge to know that as the standard bearer of the party in the last presidential campaign, his every word could be important.
In his zeal he has blundered. It will surely end any chance he has of gaining the nomination once again and it has the potential to mushroom into snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for the Democrats.
Sunday, October 29, 2006
R.I.P. Arnold "Red" Auerbach
It is almost two years to the day since I last saw Red. It was October 29th 2004, one day after the Sox had clinched the World Series. Red was appearing at a local Chinese restaurant promoting a book, Let Me Tell You a Story, written with John Feinstein.
I wanted to see Red in person to say thanks for the many memories I had of him and the Boston Celtics as a child but also for the impact he had on me in so many other ways growing up and the things that stuck with me as I reached adulthood and fatherhood. It was because of Red that sitting on the sofa watching basketball with my son became treasured memories. It was because of Red I spent ten years coaching kids in the fundamentals of the game and of life. I wonder who got more out of the experience, them or me.
I was a basketball fan, and an avid reader because of Red. My earliest memories of reading were of the Celtics exploits and Red's shenanigans. During basketball season there wasn't a day that went by that I didn't scour the Boston Globe for any word about our team.
Yes basketball is just a game and in the course of human history it has virtually no impact or importance however there are elements of the way in which Auerbach conducted his life and business that have impacted many an individual's life.
Boston in the sixties was not a place of much racial tolerance. There were racial divides that resulted in some ugly scenes as busing was being forced upon the region. These events were completely lost on Auerbach. As Boston and much of the country was resisting integration, Auerbach was a pioneer.
While the Red Sox were the last team in the majors to integrate, Auerbach was accomplishing the following: Drafted the first black player, Chuck Cooper into the NBA. He was the first coach ever to start an all black starting five and he appointed the first black coach in any sport when Bill Russell succeeded him as the Celtic head coach. Auerbach was about merit and achievement not about colors except one, Celtic green.
I have no doubt that Red has gone on to his reward.
I wanted to see Red in person to say thanks for the many memories I had of him and the Boston Celtics as a child but also for the impact he had on me in so many other ways growing up and the things that stuck with me as I reached adulthood and fatherhood. It was because of Red that sitting on the sofa watching basketball with my son became treasured memories. It was because of Red I spent ten years coaching kids in the fundamentals of the game and of life. I wonder who got more out of the experience, them or me.
I was a basketball fan, and an avid reader because of Red. My earliest memories of reading were of the Celtics exploits and Red's shenanigans. During basketball season there wasn't a day that went by that I didn't scour the Boston Globe for any word about our team.
Yes basketball is just a game and in the course of human history it has virtually no impact or importance however there are elements of the way in which Auerbach conducted his life and business that have impacted many an individual's life.
Boston in the sixties was not a place of much racial tolerance. There were racial divides that resulted in some ugly scenes as busing was being forced upon the region. These events were completely lost on Auerbach. As Boston and much of the country was resisting integration, Auerbach was a pioneer.
While the Red Sox were the last team in the majors to integrate, Auerbach was accomplishing the following: Drafted the first black player, Chuck Cooper into the NBA. He was the first coach ever to start an all black starting five and he appointed the first black coach in any sport when Bill Russell succeeded him as the Celtic head coach. Auerbach was about merit and achievement not about colors except one, Celtic green.
I have no doubt that Red has gone on to his reward.
Thursday, October 19, 2006
Capitulation at the Globe
Once again the Boston Globe has proven that their editorial board is in serious need of a major overhaul. Despite the overwhelming evidence that bribing North Korea is a policy that will fail to keep the North from expanding its weapons program and bribery will act as a catalyst for other countries to pursue the same type of nuclear blackmail, the Globe insists that only the U.S. has the resources to pay this blackmail and therefore should "cut that deal". http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2006/10/18/the_sanctions_fallacy/
The reasoning behind this capitulation is that despite the fact that the resolution was passed by the U.N Security Council and signed onto by China, there is doubt that the Chinese will act to enforce the provisions. The editorial complains that China is asking hard questions about the "terms of engagement" and golly gee, inspections of North Korean ships at sea might result in a "firefight".
Does the Globe seriously think that the Chinese are unable to fulfill this simple obligation under the terms of the council resolution? Why are they so quick to absolve the Chinese from any responsibility in reining in the North?
The stated reasoning is that China is terrified of destabilizing the North Koreans for fear of an influx of North Korean refugees into China. This seems a little hard to believe when China is a country of 1.3 billion and North Korea is a paltry 23 million.
The editorial concludes by saying "Only America can grant the package of energy supplies, economic assistance, and security assurances that the North consistently demands as the price for divesting itself of its nuclear and missile programs. Instead of imposing risky and futile sanctions, President Bush ought to be trying to cut that deal"
Are serious people writing this stuff? The Chinese can't give any security assurances to the North? Wasn't it the Chinese who intervened on behalf of the North in the fifties? Don't the Chinese have the largest standing army on the entire continent? As for energy, aren't the North's other major allies, the Russians, the largest oil producers in the world? As for economic considerations, three of the largest and most successful economies (China, Japan, South Korea) with balance of payments surpluses with the United States are next door neighbors of the North and have signed onto the resolution. If bribery is the solution, why isn't the Globe suggesting tax payers in those nations pick up the complete tab?
It is rumored that the New York Times is desperate to unload it's Boston Globe operation. We can only hope that this is true and that new owners can inject some critical and strategic thinking skills into the make up of the editorial staff.
The reasoning behind this capitulation is that despite the fact that the resolution was passed by the U.N Security Council and signed onto by China, there is doubt that the Chinese will act to enforce the provisions. The editorial complains that China is asking hard questions about the "terms of engagement" and golly gee, inspections of North Korean ships at sea might result in a "firefight".
Does the Globe seriously think that the Chinese are unable to fulfill this simple obligation under the terms of the council resolution? Why are they so quick to absolve the Chinese from any responsibility in reining in the North?
The stated reasoning is that China is terrified of destabilizing the North Koreans for fear of an influx of North Korean refugees into China. This seems a little hard to believe when China is a country of 1.3 billion and North Korea is a paltry 23 million.
The editorial concludes by saying "Only America can grant the package of energy supplies, economic assistance, and security assurances that the North consistently demands as the price for divesting itself of its nuclear and missile programs. Instead of imposing risky and futile sanctions, President Bush ought to be trying to cut that deal"
Are serious people writing this stuff? The Chinese can't give any security assurances to the North? Wasn't it the Chinese who intervened on behalf of the North in the fifties? Don't the Chinese have the largest standing army on the entire continent? As for energy, aren't the North's other major allies, the Russians, the largest oil producers in the world? As for economic considerations, three of the largest and most successful economies (China, Japan, South Korea) with balance of payments surpluses with the United States are next door neighbors of the North and have signed onto the resolution. If bribery is the solution, why isn't the Globe suggesting tax payers in those nations pick up the complete tab?
It is rumored that the New York Times is desperate to unload it's Boston Globe operation. We can only hope that this is true and that new owners can inject some critical and strategic thinking skills into the make up of the editorial staff.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
What the big money thinks
A week has gone by since the North Korean nuclear test. The major capitals of the world have been busy crafting a response. World politicians and pundits alike have been busy speculating on the significance of the test and are reacting with dire predictions.
The U.N. (Useless Nations) is busy crafting nuanced language and tepid responses to a nation and leader that is universally decried as a major nuisance. Behind the facade of concern is the usual suspects protecting their own interests. The Russians and Chinese are giving lip service to the United States and Japanese concerns over Dear Leader however, they react with clear resistance to any suggestion of decisive action against North Korea.
In order to get a real sense of the significance of the North Korean test on the United States one only need look at Wall Street. The money capital of the world reacted with a big yawn. In a week in which North Korea joined the nuclear club the Dow Jones Industrial average made a new record high.
The results were similar in Europe as the Financial Times Stock Exchange reached a five and one half year high as did the DAX index in Germany. The Nikkei in Tokyo reacted with a bit of a dip on Monday however it also finished the week up over 167 points to recover quite nicely.
Oil continued its decline and gold and platinum both had a relatively quiet week. The only major market that seemed to be a bit nervous was the U.S. bond market as the thirty year treasury yield finished the week at 4.93% which was up about 20 basis points. This was more as result of inflation remarks by Fed members than it was to any goings on regarding North Korea.
So the bottom line is that the really big money around the world reacted almost without notice to the North Koreans. That reaction comes from knowing the following. According to the CIA World Fact Book, the Republic of China exports go to the following places by percentage, US 21.4%, Hong Kong 16.3%, Japan 11%, South Korea 4.6%. When and if the North Koreans and Kim Jong IL threaten China's business plan, then the Chinese will squash him like the bug he is.
The U.N. (Useless Nations) is busy crafting nuanced language and tepid responses to a nation and leader that is universally decried as a major nuisance. Behind the facade of concern is the usual suspects protecting their own interests. The Russians and Chinese are giving lip service to the United States and Japanese concerns over Dear Leader however, they react with clear resistance to any suggestion of decisive action against North Korea.
In order to get a real sense of the significance of the North Korean test on the United States one only need look at Wall Street. The money capital of the world reacted with a big yawn. In a week in which North Korea joined the nuclear club the Dow Jones Industrial average made a new record high.
The results were similar in Europe as the Financial Times Stock Exchange reached a five and one half year high as did the DAX index in Germany. The Nikkei in Tokyo reacted with a bit of a dip on Monday however it also finished the week up over 167 points to recover quite nicely.
Oil continued its decline and gold and platinum both had a relatively quiet week. The only major market that seemed to be a bit nervous was the U.S. bond market as the thirty year treasury yield finished the week at 4.93% which was up about 20 basis points. This was more as result of inflation remarks by Fed members than it was to any goings on regarding North Korea.
So the bottom line is that the really big money around the world reacted almost without notice to the North Koreans. That reaction comes from knowing the following. According to the CIA World Fact Book, the Republic of China exports go to the following places by percentage, US 21.4%, Hong Kong 16.3%, Japan 11%, South Korea 4.6%. When and if the North Koreans and Kim Jong IL threaten China's business plan, then the Chinese will squash him like the bug he is.
Monday, October 09, 2006
Are the Chinese nervous yet?
The world media is full of speculation this morning with regard to the significance of the North Korean nuclear test. Certainly the American media will be all a twitter about the failure of the administration to prevent this event. There will be talk of the success of the Carter initiative and the Clinton "deal' with the North.
Appeasement wasn't a success then and it and won't be a success now. Since the deep pockets of the United States is the audience that Kim Jong Il wants to reach but it is his neighbors that are the ones least entertained by his performance.
The Chinese were playing it coy right up until the last moment with a comment Saturday suggesting that the test could be avoided if the United States agreed to bi-lateral talks with the North Koreans. The Bush administration has refused to bite on this non starter outside of the Party of Six negotiations.
Despite Washington's bluster about refusing to tolerate a nuclear armed North, there is little or nothing we should do about it. The strategic playing field has changed in the region and it is up to the neighborhood to take care of its own business.
China is now the big dog in the region and they must assess what these latest developments have done to Chinese interests and regional security. With the North Koreans now making their nuclear bones how long will it be before the pacifism clause in the Japanese constitution is relegated to the dust bin of history? How will the Chinese react to a choice such as rein in Kim Jong IL or face a nuclear armed Japan?
The most compelling impact may be economic. Big money investment does not like instability. The Asia markets are being roiled by the test and in the long run continued belligerence by the North will definitely affect investment in China, Japan and South Korea.
So for the moment this is not our problem. If appeasement is what the region chooses as a method of dealing with the North then let's make sure it is the Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans who foot the bill. Since it is they who are directly affected by instability it is they who should be responsible for the outcome.
The Chinese still have some time to do the right things. The time for a decision is rapidly approaching however. The North Koreans show no sign of letting up in their drive to squeeze major economic concessions (blackmail) out of anyone willing to pay them. The Chinese can either pony up the money or take other more direct and forceful actions to control their client.
The next major provocation most assuredly will be the improvement of the North Korean launch capability. No President of the United States, Democratic or Republican will allow an intercontinental ballistic missile to be fueled and ready to go on a North Korean Launch pad.
Appeasement wasn't a success then and it and won't be a success now. Since the deep pockets of the United States is the audience that Kim Jong Il wants to reach but it is his neighbors that are the ones least entertained by his performance.
The Chinese were playing it coy right up until the last moment with a comment Saturday suggesting that the test could be avoided if the United States agreed to bi-lateral talks with the North Koreans. The Bush administration has refused to bite on this non starter outside of the Party of Six negotiations.
Despite Washington's bluster about refusing to tolerate a nuclear armed North, there is little or nothing we should do about it. The strategic playing field has changed in the region and it is up to the neighborhood to take care of its own business.
China is now the big dog in the region and they must assess what these latest developments have done to Chinese interests and regional security. With the North Koreans now making their nuclear bones how long will it be before the pacifism clause in the Japanese constitution is relegated to the dust bin of history? How will the Chinese react to a choice such as rein in Kim Jong IL or face a nuclear armed Japan?
The most compelling impact may be economic. Big money investment does not like instability. The Asia markets are being roiled by the test and in the long run continued belligerence by the North will definitely affect investment in China, Japan and South Korea.
So for the moment this is not our problem. If appeasement is what the region chooses as a method of dealing with the North then let's make sure it is the Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans who foot the bill. Since it is they who are directly affected by instability it is they who should be responsible for the outcome.
The Chinese still have some time to do the right things. The time for a decision is rapidly approaching however. The North Koreans show no sign of letting up in their drive to squeeze major economic concessions (blackmail) out of anyone willing to pay them. The Chinese can either pony up the money or take other more direct and forceful actions to control their client.
The next major provocation most assuredly will be the improvement of the North Korean launch capability. No President of the United States, Democratic or Republican will allow an intercontinental ballistic missile to be fueled and ready to go on a North Korean Launch pad.
Sunday, October 08, 2006
Go Tigers
Once the Sox were eliminated from the pennant race there was only one thing that could make a Sox fan rest comfortably over the winter. Of course that something was to see the Evil Empire New York Yankees get knocked out. That dream came true yesterday when the $200 plus million dollar "best team ever" payroll finished an October humiliation with three straight losses to the Detroit Tigers.
Turncoat Johnny Damon was heard to say "we're still the best team, sometimes the best team doesn't win". Well for the sixth straight year the "best team" has gone down in flames and George Steinbrenner is left empty handed.
Joe Torre and Brian Cashman are a good manager and general manager respectively but let's hold on a minute before we enshrine them in Hall of Fame. For a team that can boast an all star at every position they have simply under achieved since their last World Series championship six years ago. Who knows what's in King George's mind but it could result in one or both of them being unemployed.
It is kind of ironic that Brian's last name is CASH MAN since that has been what he has thrown around for all these years. One thing that is apparent is that in order for the Yankees to actually return to greatness he will be forced to throw around even more cash.
The Yanks are getting old in the all important pitching department and some of their hitters have not achieved higher levels in the post steroid era. Add to that the inexplicable failure of Alex Rodriguez to hit in the post season and you have a winter of severe discontent for Yankee fans.
The Rodriguez meltdown led Dan Shaughnessey to dub him the "cooler". Speculation began immediately over ARod remaining in New York. He has an iron clad no-trade and his contract is so odious that only a few clubs could afford him. It seems ludicrous to suggest but maybe us Sox fans should hope that New York keeps him. After all, the year after Seattle got rid of him they won 116 games.
Or perhaps we should think about the possibility of a Manny for Arod trade? If we are going to be under achievers wouldn't you rather under achieve with Arod in your line up every day than Manny maybe getting out of bed to play?
In any event the Tigers have earned a place of honor and admiration in the heart of every Sox fan. It is only right and just that we should attach our affections to them and pray to the baseball gods all the way to a World Series victory.
Turncoat Johnny Damon was heard to say "we're still the best team, sometimes the best team doesn't win". Well for the sixth straight year the "best team" has gone down in flames and George Steinbrenner is left empty handed.
Joe Torre and Brian Cashman are a good manager and general manager respectively but let's hold on a minute before we enshrine them in Hall of Fame. For a team that can boast an all star at every position they have simply under achieved since their last World Series championship six years ago. Who knows what's in King George's mind but it could result in one or both of them being unemployed.
It is kind of ironic that Brian's last name is CASH MAN since that has been what he has thrown around for all these years. One thing that is apparent is that in order for the Yankees to actually return to greatness he will be forced to throw around even more cash.
The Yanks are getting old in the all important pitching department and some of their hitters have not achieved higher levels in the post steroid era. Add to that the inexplicable failure of Alex Rodriguez to hit in the post season and you have a winter of severe discontent for Yankee fans.
The Rodriguez meltdown led Dan Shaughnessey to dub him the "cooler". Speculation began immediately over ARod remaining in New York. He has an iron clad no-trade and his contract is so odious that only a few clubs could afford him. It seems ludicrous to suggest but maybe us Sox fans should hope that New York keeps him. After all, the year after Seattle got rid of him they won 116 games.
Or perhaps we should think about the possibility of a Manny for Arod trade? If we are going to be under achievers wouldn't you rather under achieve with Arod in your line up every day than Manny maybe getting out of bed to play?
In any event the Tigers have earned a place of honor and admiration in the heart of every Sox fan. It is only right and just that we should attach our affections to them and pray to the baseball gods all the way to a World Series victory.
Saturday, October 07, 2006
A good business decision
Tuesday night the school committee will be interviewing in open session, Katie Spinos the internal candidate for the superintendent's job. The candidate has been an employee of the system for the past 7 years in the position responsible for curriculum.
By most accounts she has had a stellar record within the system and has been advancing herself educationally. She has an under grad degree from B.C. and two masters degrees and is missing only her dissertation on her way to her doctorate.
There has been some weeping and moaning about the need for a "nation wide search" for a new superintendent with the teachers union being one of the main advocates. It will be interesting to see whether or not the teachers union is equally receptive to residents or the school committee the next time they select some one to lead their organization.
What this boils down to is a simple business decision. With the superintendent, the high school principal as well as the head of the guidance department announcing retirements, the community will be losing top people in the system. Hiring some one from within the system with a demonstrated track record makes perfect sense in maintaining some semblance of continuity as well as saving the time and expense of a search.
The option of a search does remain on the table however if Tuesday night does not go as I suspect. Ms. Spinos will be interviewed in open session by the committee and will also be asked unscreened questions from the residents of the community. It will be up to her to demonstrate that she is the obvious choice for the position.
By most accounts she has had a stellar record within the system and has been advancing herself educationally. She has an under grad degree from B.C. and two masters degrees and is missing only her dissertation on her way to her doctorate.
There has been some weeping and moaning about the need for a "nation wide search" for a new superintendent with the teachers union being one of the main advocates. It will be interesting to see whether or not the teachers union is equally receptive to residents or the school committee the next time they select some one to lead their organization.
What this boils down to is a simple business decision. With the superintendent, the high school principal as well as the head of the guidance department announcing retirements, the community will be losing top people in the system. Hiring some one from within the system with a demonstrated track record makes perfect sense in maintaining some semblance of continuity as well as saving the time and expense of a search.
The option of a search does remain on the table however if Tuesday night does not go as I suspect. Ms. Spinos will be interviewed in open session by the committee and will also be asked unscreened questions from the residents of the community. It will be up to her to demonstrate that she is the obvious choice for the position.
Friday, September 29, 2006
History of the Burlington Community Scholarship Foundation
In 1986 the Massachusetts Legislature passed into law Chapter 194. The effect of that law resulted in the cities and towns in the commonwealth gaining authorization to establish a scholarship trust fund. It also allowed those communities to include a voluntary check-off contribution system on each tax bill produced by the communities who adopted the legislation.
That legislation came to the attention of long time school committee member, Joan Miles. She had read an article in one of the Boston newspapers about Arlington’s efforts in adopting the provisions. Joan sprung into action with a call to town treasurer Brian Curtin and between the two of them an article was soon crafted and placed before town meeting.
The town subsequently adopted the legislation by a vote of town meeting in May of 1988. Out of the creation process came the Burlington Community Scholarship Foundation. This was the structure that was created for operation, investment, scholarship selection and distribution criteria. These actions would begin a 16 year labor of love for Mrs. Miles that would see the Foundation endowment as well as scholarship distributions grow dramatically.
With the corporate tax exempt shell in place, the Foundation was up in running and 1989 marked it first full year in operation. The results were modest as the endowment finished the year with a balance of $10,000 and a total of $2,000 in scholarships were awarded. The chief source of income was the tax check-off system which generated a total of $7,000 and other fund raising efforts came in at $5,000 but well short of goals. Now the president of the foundation, Joan made note of the shortfall in fundraising efforts but also threw down the gauntlet in this fashion. Joan said, “If the town of Wakefield can raise $32,000 and Marblehead can raise $62,000 in a single year, then certainly Burlington can do as well them or better.” In the ensuing years Joan and the Foundation board would make that challenge ring true.
By 1993, the Foundation endowment had grown to nearly $60,000 and in this nearly fifth full year, the fledgling organization began to gain traction in the community at large and its search for various sustainable fund raising formulas began to bear fruit.
The annual Phone-a-thon was joined by the Foundation and Business Partnership which soon became known as the Adopt-a-class program. The program encouraged businesses and other groups to develop an ongoing relationship directly with students in the classes that they adopt.
That direct involvement included things beyond just fund raising. Mentoring and shadowing programs and career path exploration and as well as supplying speakers to acquaint students to the real world work requirements and expectations .
Three classes were adopted that year and those ground breaking companies who made the initial steps possible were Lahey Clinic foundation, Continental cablevision and Somerset bank.
1993 was also note worthy as it marked the arrival of Ernie DeMartinis on the scene. As the Director of Media Services at the high school, Ernie was instrumental along with students Susan Dunford and Julie O’Connel in the creation of the Adopt-a-Class media presentation. This was used as a marketing tool when approaching prospective Adopt-a-Class business partners.
1995 Marked a turning point in the fundraising efforts of the foundation. That point came with the retirement of Ernie DeMartinis from the Burlington School system. What was a loss for the school system became a boon to the Foundation. Ernie immediately jumped in and provided a tireless effort in changing the phonathon to a telethon. Ernie’s effort joined the goals of the telethon with the emerging power of local access television. The first telethon proved that point by becoming the largest single source of contribution up to that point in the Foundations history. The total raised was over $18,000.
1996 proved to be another significant milestone as the Adopt-a-class program was completed by having all grades Kindergarten through 12 gaining a partner.
1997 was another first as the endowment rose significantly to $172,000 as a result of a significant bequest. The estate of Ann Mulhearn Ellis donated $72,000 for the establishment of an annual scholarship in lasting memory of Ann’s husband Harold R. Ellis. Harold had been an employee of the Burlington School system during the 1960’s
2000 was significant as it marked the successful joining of the Burlington High School program under the umbrella of the Burlington Community Scholarship Foundation’s Dollars for Scholars program.
The Telethon continued to gain momentum under the leadership of Ernie. The theme of a Rich Past and Bright Future was in concert with the town’s bicentennial. With Jack Ferren and Dan Brothers acting as master’s of ceremony the telethon grossed $34,000 which again set a mark as the most successful effort to that date. The result lifted the endowment to over $282,000.
2001 marked the thirteenth year of the Foundation and was a lucky year indeed for Burlington scholars. The endowment fund took a quantum leap forward as the value rose to over $625,000. This result was largely through the generosity of 1956 Burlington High graduate Jack Blais. Harold Dulong had invited Jack to a scholarship breakfast meeting and after hearing Joan’s presentation regarding the Foundation, Mr. Blais pledged $200,000 on the spot. In addition Mr. Blais promised to match dollar for dollar any proceeds raised in the 2001 telethon. Burlington’s business people and residents enthusiastically responded to Mr. Blais by raising over $58,000 to be matched by Jack.
2002 was a major milestone as the endowment level exceeded one million dollars. The telethon set an all time record of $78,000 which was again matched by Jack and Shelby Blais. The students also responded to Mr. Blais as under the direction of Peter Halvorson the telethon recruited more students for the phone bank than ever before.
2003 marked the continued success of the telethon but was a sad year indeed as it marked the passing of Foundation Board member and Telethon producer Ernie Demartinis.
Ernie was an enthusiastic advocate of children, education, and the entire scholarship concept. President Joan Miles acknowledged Ernie’s contribution by simply stating that “we would not be experiencing the success that we have without Ernie".
2004 and 2005 Marked additional dramatic changes to the Foundation. Long time president and Foundation visionary Joan Miles, after achieving her dream of a million dollar endowment, opted for a well deserved retirement to Florida with her husband Steve. In retrospect, the Scholarship Foundation was just one of the many contributions Joan Miles made over her many years of public service to the Town of Burlington. The torch of leadership of the Foundation passed to new President Steven Preston. Steven has a long history of involvement in education and the town of Burlington during his long tenure as the Principal of the Pine Glen School.
The Foundation suffered another loss of a more tragic nature as long time dedicated supporter Harold Dulong was killed in an accident.
As we complete 2006, the Foundation continues on its mission. Despite losses of key members, other new members as well as the core of long term contributing members have stepped forward to fill new roles. Many of the names have been involved since the inception of the project. Brian Curtin, Jack Ferren, Debbie Keene, Joan Corrao, Janet Modesto Julliette Mott Lucy Damiani, Tom Killilea Rosemarie Tieri, Robyn Miliano, Connie Skourtis and many more form the core of the support and assure this dedication to Burlington students in the future. BCAT has continued to be a strong partner through the efforts of Jen Dodge, Dick Linder and Trisha Hicks.
The endowment has grown to 1.3 million dollars but more importantly to date has contributed $427,000 to 295 high school and 40 adult residents.
Please help the Burlington Community Scholarship Foundation continue this work.
That legislation came to the attention of long time school committee member, Joan Miles. She had read an article in one of the Boston newspapers about Arlington’s efforts in adopting the provisions. Joan sprung into action with a call to town treasurer Brian Curtin and between the two of them an article was soon crafted and placed before town meeting.
The town subsequently adopted the legislation by a vote of town meeting in May of 1988. Out of the creation process came the Burlington Community Scholarship Foundation. This was the structure that was created for operation, investment, scholarship selection and distribution criteria. These actions would begin a 16 year labor of love for Mrs. Miles that would see the Foundation endowment as well as scholarship distributions grow dramatically.
With the corporate tax exempt shell in place, the Foundation was up in running and 1989 marked it first full year in operation. The results were modest as the endowment finished the year with a balance of $10,000 and a total of $2,000 in scholarships were awarded. The chief source of income was the tax check-off system which generated a total of $7,000 and other fund raising efforts came in at $5,000 but well short of goals. Now the president of the foundation, Joan made note of the shortfall in fundraising efforts but also threw down the gauntlet in this fashion. Joan said, “If the town of Wakefield can raise $32,000 and Marblehead can raise $62,000 in a single year, then certainly Burlington can do as well them or better.” In the ensuing years Joan and the Foundation board would make that challenge ring true.
By 1993, the Foundation endowment had grown to nearly $60,000 and in this nearly fifth full year, the fledgling organization began to gain traction in the community at large and its search for various sustainable fund raising formulas began to bear fruit.
The annual Phone-a-thon was joined by the Foundation and Business Partnership which soon became known as the Adopt-a-class program. The program encouraged businesses and other groups to develop an ongoing relationship directly with students in the classes that they adopt.
That direct involvement included things beyond just fund raising. Mentoring and shadowing programs and career path exploration and as well as supplying speakers to acquaint students to the real world work requirements and expectations .
Three classes were adopted that year and those ground breaking companies who made the initial steps possible were Lahey Clinic foundation, Continental cablevision and Somerset bank.
1993 was also note worthy as it marked the arrival of Ernie DeMartinis on the scene. As the Director of Media Services at the high school, Ernie was instrumental along with students Susan Dunford and Julie O’Connel in the creation of the Adopt-a-Class media presentation. This was used as a marketing tool when approaching prospective Adopt-a-Class business partners.
1995 Marked a turning point in the fundraising efforts of the foundation. That point came with the retirement of Ernie DeMartinis from the Burlington School system. What was a loss for the school system became a boon to the Foundation. Ernie immediately jumped in and provided a tireless effort in changing the phonathon to a telethon. Ernie’s effort joined the goals of the telethon with the emerging power of local access television. The first telethon proved that point by becoming the largest single source of contribution up to that point in the Foundations history. The total raised was over $18,000.
1996 proved to be another significant milestone as the Adopt-a-class program was completed by having all grades Kindergarten through 12 gaining a partner.
1997 was another first as the endowment rose significantly to $172,000 as a result of a significant bequest. The estate of Ann Mulhearn Ellis donated $72,000 for the establishment of an annual scholarship in lasting memory of Ann’s husband Harold R. Ellis. Harold had been an employee of the Burlington School system during the 1960’s
2000 was significant as it marked the successful joining of the Burlington High School program under the umbrella of the Burlington Community Scholarship Foundation’s Dollars for Scholars program.
The Telethon continued to gain momentum under the leadership of Ernie. The theme of a Rich Past and Bright Future was in concert with the town’s bicentennial. With Jack Ferren and Dan Brothers acting as master’s of ceremony the telethon grossed $34,000 which again set a mark as the most successful effort to that date. The result lifted the endowment to over $282,000.
2001 marked the thirteenth year of the Foundation and was a lucky year indeed for Burlington scholars. The endowment fund took a quantum leap forward as the value rose to over $625,000. This result was largely through the generosity of 1956 Burlington High graduate Jack Blais. Harold Dulong had invited Jack to a scholarship breakfast meeting and after hearing Joan’s presentation regarding the Foundation, Mr. Blais pledged $200,000 on the spot. In addition Mr. Blais promised to match dollar for dollar any proceeds raised in the 2001 telethon. Burlington’s business people and residents enthusiastically responded to Mr. Blais by raising over $58,000 to be matched by Jack.
2002 was a major milestone as the endowment level exceeded one million dollars. The telethon set an all time record of $78,000 which was again matched by Jack and Shelby Blais. The students also responded to Mr. Blais as under the direction of Peter Halvorson the telethon recruited more students for the phone bank than ever before.
2003 marked the continued success of the telethon but was a sad year indeed as it marked the passing of Foundation Board member and Telethon producer Ernie Demartinis.
Ernie was an enthusiastic advocate of children, education, and the entire scholarship concept. President Joan Miles acknowledged Ernie’s contribution by simply stating that “we would not be experiencing the success that we have without Ernie".
2004 and 2005 Marked additional dramatic changes to the Foundation. Long time president and Foundation visionary Joan Miles, after achieving her dream of a million dollar endowment, opted for a well deserved retirement to Florida with her husband Steve. In retrospect, the Scholarship Foundation was just one of the many contributions Joan Miles made over her many years of public service to the Town of Burlington. The torch of leadership of the Foundation passed to new President Steven Preston. Steven has a long history of involvement in education and the town of Burlington during his long tenure as the Principal of the Pine Glen School.
The Foundation suffered another loss of a more tragic nature as long time dedicated supporter Harold Dulong was killed in an accident.
As we complete 2006, the Foundation continues on its mission. Despite losses of key members, other new members as well as the core of long term contributing members have stepped forward to fill new roles. Many of the names have been involved since the inception of the project. Brian Curtin, Jack Ferren, Debbie Keene, Joan Corrao, Janet Modesto Julliette Mott Lucy Damiani, Tom Killilea Rosemarie Tieri, Robyn Miliano, Connie Skourtis and many more form the core of the support and assure this dedication to Burlington students in the future. BCAT has continued to be a strong partner through the efforts of Jen Dodge, Dick Linder and Trisha Hicks.
The endowment has grown to 1.3 million dollars but more importantly to date has contributed $427,000 to 295 high school and 40 adult residents.
Please help the Burlington Community Scholarship Foundation continue this work.
Saturday, September 23, 2006
Boycott Citgo
What happens when a salesman tells his best customer that he is a jerk and a danger to mankind? First, he should have his head examined but after that he should have his business negatively affected as a punishment for his stupidity.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made just such a faux pas at his recent appearance before the U.N. His speech can be read here. '>http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10315.htm">
Apparently it it did not matter to Mr. Chavez what affect his comments might have on Citgo, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.(PDVSA) which is a world energy corporation, owned by the Venezuelan State.
A visit to the Citgo site has this interesting bit of information. " Citgo exports 54% of its production to the U.S. and Canada". The fall out from the rather bizarre actions by Chavez are just beginning to be felt.
This week a publicity seeking Boston politician suggested that the Kenmore Square Citgo sign should be covered in the American flag. More importantly than foolish symbolism however is Boston businessman and independent candidate for governor Christy Mihos' comments. http://news.bostonherald.com/localPolitics/view.bg?articleid=158894
Mihos ownes a chain of convenience stores that use Citgo as the primary provider of his gasoline. It has been suggested that Mihos position is simply pandering for votes however what it really indicates is that Mihos has got a better head for business than Chavez does. He knows that there now is a group of people just like me out in consumer land who would now rather walk than buy Citgo gas.
The price of oil closed Friday down another dollar to $60.50. Judging from inventory levels as well as declining economic activity expected in the United States we can be pretty sure that the slide in oil will continue. Falling prices and anti Citgo feelings are bound to take a toll.
Mr. Chavez may have rocketed Noam Chomsky to the top of the best seller list at Amazon but he may have dropped Citgo to the bottom of the best seller of gasoline list. We may not see Mr. Chavez on the world scene much longer if he continues his current ways.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made just such a faux pas at his recent appearance before the U.N. His speech can be read here. '>http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article10315.htm">
Apparently it it did not matter to Mr. Chavez what affect his comments might have on Citgo, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.(PDVSA) which is a world energy corporation, owned by the Venezuelan State.
A visit to the Citgo site has this interesting bit of information. " Citgo exports 54% of its production to the U.S. and Canada". The fall out from the rather bizarre actions by Chavez are just beginning to be felt.
This week a publicity seeking Boston politician suggested that the Kenmore Square Citgo sign should be covered in the American flag. More importantly than foolish symbolism however is Boston businessman and independent candidate for governor Christy Mihos' comments. http://news.bostonherald.com/localPolitics/view.bg?articleid=158894
Mihos ownes a chain of convenience stores that use Citgo as the primary provider of his gasoline. It has been suggested that Mihos position is simply pandering for votes however what it really indicates is that Mihos has got a better head for business than Chavez does. He knows that there now is a group of people just like me out in consumer land who would now rather walk than buy Citgo gas.
The price of oil closed Friday down another dollar to $60.50. Judging from inventory levels as well as declining economic activity expected in the United States we can be pretty sure that the slide in oil will continue. Falling prices and anti Citgo feelings are bound to take a toll.
Mr. Chavez may have rocketed Noam Chomsky to the top of the best seller list at Amazon but he may have dropped Citgo to the bottom of the best seller of gasoline list. We may not see Mr. Chavez on the world scene much longer if he continues his current ways.
Saturday, September 16, 2006
The crutch
One of the more aggravating things about local government is the frequent unwillingness of local officials to make a personnel decision. The most convenient cover that an official can get is the "nationwide search". What usually happens is that a position opens up and rather than look internally for a qualified candidate who knows the operation and has earned a shot a the top job, the board or committee will look to form "an inclusive" array of self interested people who have some vested interest in an outcome. If a committee was needed for decision making what the Hell did we elect the official for?
In the end what happens is that after a lot of power exchanges and cries of influence the board or committee will opt for somebodies favorite or worse they will appoint the person who should have gotten the job in the first place had the board had any intestinal fortitude. This is a no win situation because the cry will then be what a "bag job" it was and why was all the money spent in the sham search?
Just such a situation is developing in the quest to replace Burlington's out going superintendent Dr. James Picone. Picone has been a breath of fresh air in the job and he will be sorely missed. In addition to losing him it is anticipated that the high school principal, Linda Hayes will also be opting for retirement.
Waiting in the wings are qualified replacements who have earned a shot at the top spots through performance and loyalty. Just such a person is Katie Spinos. It is rumored that the school committee would like to name Ms. Spinos as the acting superintendent while a "search" is conducted for a new one.
I am no personnel consultant but if I am Ms. Spinos there is no way in the world I would take the responsibility of running the system while the powers that be search for some one to replace me. What is to be gained if I take the temp job and apply for the job and then don't get it? What do I say in my next interview for a top job someplace else. "Yeah I was the temp in the place I did my best work but they didn't choose me for the top job".
In answer to the question of why am I so sure about the results of the search my reply is that I am not sure that we couldn't find somebody "super". However I do know that there is a very dramatic shortage of superintendents in the commonwealth and people we have passed over previously as being unacceptable have landed jobs in our neighboring communities.
There is no doubt that if Spinos is passed over she will likely be a candidate somewhere else and will leave our systems. That will make vacancies in the three most important jobs in the system.
So the end result of a search may be that we waste time and money, hire an unknown and then lose additional talent of our own. Not to mention what message we send to the rest of our home grown talent.
We elect people to lead. We don't elect them to be led around by fringe players who think they know best.
In the end what happens is that after a lot of power exchanges and cries of influence the board or committee will opt for somebodies favorite or worse they will appoint the person who should have gotten the job in the first place had the board had any intestinal fortitude. This is a no win situation because the cry will then be what a "bag job" it was and why was all the money spent in the sham search?
Just such a situation is developing in the quest to replace Burlington's out going superintendent Dr. James Picone. Picone has been a breath of fresh air in the job and he will be sorely missed. In addition to losing him it is anticipated that the high school principal, Linda Hayes will also be opting for retirement.
Waiting in the wings are qualified replacements who have earned a shot at the top spots through performance and loyalty. Just such a person is Katie Spinos. It is rumored that the school committee would like to name Ms. Spinos as the acting superintendent while a "search" is conducted for a new one.
I am no personnel consultant but if I am Ms. Spinos there is no way in the world I would take the responsibility of running the system while the powers that be search for some one to replace me. What is to be gained if I take the temp job and apply for the job and then don't get it? What do I say in my next interview for a top job someplace else. "Yeah I was the temp in the place I did my best work but they didn't choose me for the top job".
In answer to the question of why am I so sure about the results of the search my reply is that I am not sure that we couldn't find somebody "super". However I do know that there is a very dramatic shortage of superintendents in the commonwealth and people we have passed over previously as being unacceptable have landed jobs in our neighboring communities.
There is no doubt that if Spinos is passed over she will likely be a candidate somewhere else and will leave our systems. That will make vacancies in the three most important jobs in the system.
So the end result of a search may be that we waste time and money, hire an unknown and then lose additional talent of our own. Not to mention what message we send to the rest of our home grown talent.
We elect people to lead. We don't elect them to be led around by fringe players who think they know best.
Painful medicine
Oil is more than a source of energy around the world. It is also one of the more potent forces on the global political scene as well as directly into every home in the world on the local scene.
Light crude oil prices hit a low of $62.50 a barrel this week before closing at $63.33. These numbers are down from the recent high of $78. There has been no formal reaction by OPEC in terms of cutting production as of yet but that is sure to be on the table over the next several months as oil prices will inevitably continue to crash. OPEC may find they are the Dutch boy with his finger in the dike.
The geo political and domestic economic benefits of such an event are most welcome however the high of $78 dollars per barrel and gasoline and home heating prices in excess of $3.00 per gallon may well be looked back upon as watershed events for the U.S. consumer. That price will perhaps be viewed as the straw that broke the camels back in the over all importance of oil. Was it enough to jilt the average American out of their drunken oil stupor?
In the near term high energy prices coupled with foolish interest rate policy by the Fed will most certainly result in a U.S recession in 2007. Any U.S. economic slowdown will reverberate through out the rest of the world. With the U.S consumer dedicating more of their disposable income to heating, driving and the higher cost of money, there won't be as much money left to spend on cheap Chinese imports.
Since the industrialization of China is a recent phenomena it will be most interesting to see how that country deals with its first post modernization economic slowdown. If it is severe enough could it result in social unrest?
Iran is also likely to feel the sting of crashing oil prices. The little fanatic, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is likely to feel a good deal of pressure as prices and consumption fall. How will the Iranian population react to a reduction in domestic government programs while their government attempts to support an expensive nuclear program as well as trying to rebuild a smashed Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Venezuela is another example of reduced influence as prices decline. Will Hugo Chavez spend more time at home dealing with domestic unrest or on the global road whipping up anti Americanism?
We are not out of the woods yet because $62.50 is still an aberration and is still filling the coffers of oil companies and oil producing states. The question becomes how low will it go? We can look back just three years ago and see that oil was selling at a post 9/11 recession level of $28 a barrel. Some would argue that it is unlikely to reach those levels again because of the rapid growth of India and China and the strong demand they have placed on global production.
Just as important is this demand on production so to has been developments on the consumption side that may very well off set India and China. None more so than the American consumer and consumers in other Western countries realizing that reliance on foreign oil has an unacceptable impact on a country's foreign policy. As a result of strategic and economic concerns, conservation is now happening in every household throughout those countries.
Other factors have contributed significantly as well. It is no surprise that the oil price tumble coincided with the discovery of a huge new deep water reserve in the Gulf of Mexico that reportedly added over 60% to known U.S. oil reserves. America is not the only country busily exploring for oil. The Russians as well as other former Soviet Union countries have been ramping up exploration as well as production dramatically over the past year.
Old wells have also been brought onto line to add to an increasing glut. Wells that were unprofitable at $28 a barrel have been greedily pumping away every minute that the price exceeded that number.
Alternative fuels impact may lessen over the next year or two as oil prices crash, however the alternative fuel genie is now out of the bottle. The historic rise in oil prices resulted in huge investment into ethanol and bio diesel. We saw this once before and that nascent industry withered a bit on the vine but this time it has gained traction via law. With the mandated adding of ethanol to the gasoline mix it guarantees that ethanol will remain on the scene. In addition the public has started to embrace the idea of hybrid consumption vehicles. Once production lines have been set up for such vehicles it will be difficult for the auto makers to turn back.
All in all it has been a very painful year for us but in the long run it may have turned out to be painful but effective medicine.
Light crude oil prices hit a low of $62.50 a barrel this week before closing at $63.33. These numbers are down from the recent high of $78. There has been no formal reaction by OPEC in terms of cutting production as of yet but that is sure to be on the table over the next several months as oil prices will inevitably continue to crash. OPEC may find they are the Dutch boy with his finger in the dike.
The geo political and domestic economic benefits of such an event are most welcome however the high of $78 dollars per barrel and gasoline and home heating prices in excess of $3.00 per gallon may well be looked back upon as watershed events for the U.S. consumer. That price will perhaps be viewed as the straw that broke the camels back in the over all importance of oil. Was it enough to jilt the average American out of their drunken oil stupor?
In the near term high energy prices coupled with foolish interest rate policy by the Fed will most certainly result in a U.S recession in 2007. Any U.S. economic slowdown will reverberate through out the rest of the world. With the U.S consumer dedicating more of their disposable income to heating, driving and the higher cost of money, there won't be as much money left to spend on cheap Chinese imports.
Since the industrialization of China is a recent phenomena it will be most interesting to see how that country deals with its first post modernization economic slowdown. If it is severe enough could it result in social unrest?
Iran is also likely to feel the sting of crashing oil prices. The little fanatic, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is likely to feel a good deal of pressure as prices and consumption fall. How will the Iranian population react to a reduction in domestic government programs while their government attempts to support an expensive nuclear program as well as trying to rebuild a smashed Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Venezuela is another example of reduced influence as prices decline. Will Hugo Chavez spend more time at home dealing with domestic unrest or on the global road whipping up anti Americanism?
We are not out of the woods yet because $62.50 is still an aberration and is still filling the coffers of oil companies and oil producing states. The question becomes how low will it go? We can look back just three years ago and see that oil was selling at a post 9/11 recession level of $28 a barrel. Some would argue that it is unlikely to reach those levels again because of the rapid growth of India and China and the strong demand they have placed on global production.
Just as important is this demand on production so to has been developments on the consumption side that may very well off set India and China. None more so than the American consumer and consumers in other Western countries realizing that reliance on foreign oil has an unacceptable impact on a country's foreign policy. As a result of strategic and economic concerns, conservation is now happening in every household throughout those countries.
Other factors have contributed significantly as well. It is no surprise that the oil price tumble coincided with the discovery of a huge new deep water reserve in the Gulf of Mexico that reportedly added over 60% to known U.S. oil reserves. America is not the only country busily exploring for oil. The Russians as well as other former Soviet Union countries have been ramping up exploration as well as production dramatically over the past year.
Old wells have also been brought onto line to add to an increasing glut. Wells that were unprofitable at $28 a barrel have been greedily pumping away every minute that the price exceeded that number.
Alternative fuels impact may lessen over the next year or two as oil prices crash, however the alternative fuel genie is now out of the bottle. The historic rise in oil prices resulted in huge investment into ethanol and bio diesel. We saw this once before and that nascent industry withered a bit on the vine but this time it has gained traction via law. With the mandated adding of ethanol to the gasoline mix it guarantees that ethanol will remain on the scene. In addition the public has started to embrace the idea of hybrid consumption vehicles. Once production lines have been set up for such vehicles it will be difficult for the auto makers to turn back.
All in all it has been a very painful year for us but in the long run it may have turned out to be painful but effective medicine.
Sunday, September 10, 2006
Patrick for Governor
When discussing Deval Patrick with my friends some reply that he might be to liberal. Having lived in Massachusetts my whole life I can't imagine that being a concern for a politician. Forget labels for a moment and simply focus on the man himself.
I recently was involved in a Patrick event in town and I addressed the gathering with the following line, "he is destined for the burden of leadership". It really is that simple. Take a hard look at his resume and you can see a 50 year old man with a consistent record of achievement at every check point in his life.
He has been a scholar, a humanitarian, a successful businessman and has navigated the halls of power in Washington in the federal bureaucracy. At every level he appears to be a consensus builder who can get things done.
In the political world the most telling point is his campaign itself. To be a relative unknown and be able to put together the most effective grass roots organization that the state has ever seen is a pretty impressive achievement in a state that considers politics to be the national past time.
This is a man that inspires people on a visceral level and for those of us more cynical he bring a ray of hope that government can be energized by a leader with a vision for our future.
Patrick is going to be a leader somewhere doing something. So why not be a leader here? There is an old Boston sports cliche that is appropriate for this race for governor. When a former Red Sox player does something great (Anibal Sanchez no-hitter this week) we frequently say "how come the Sox can't get guys like him"?
Let's not let Deval Patrick get away. Vote Patrick in the democratic primary.
I recently was involved in a Patrick event in town and I addressed the gathering with the following line, "he is destined for the burden of leadership". It really is that simple. Take a hard look at his resume and you can see a 50 year old man with a consistent record of achievement at every check point in his life.
He has been a scholar, a humanitarian, a successful businessman and has navigated the halls of power in Washington in the federal bureaucracy. At every level he appears to be a consensus builder who can get things done.
In the political world the most telling point is his campaign itself. To be a relative unknown and be able to put together the most effective grass roots organization that the state has ever seen is a pretty impressive achievement in a state that considers politics to be the national past time.
This is a man that inspires people on a visceral level and for those of us more cynical he bring a ray of hope that government can be energized by a leader with a vision for our future.
Patrick is going to be a leader somewhere doing something. So why not be a leader here? There is an old Boston sports cliche that is appropriate for this race for governor. When a former Red Sox player does something great (Anibal Sanchez no-hitter this week) we frequently say "how come the Sox can't get guys like him"?
Let's not let Deval Patrick get away. Vote Patrick in the democratic primary.
Friday, September 01, 2006
It's all my fault
Back on July 11 I wrote an entry looking at the Red Sox at the All Star break. It was a piece filled with optimism and even some hubris over the fact that the Sox were in first place leading the evil empire by three games. What the Hell was I thinking? The ink wasn't even dry before Sox players started falling like rain.
It was like game four of the A.L. championship series in 04 might have been when I thought about changing my position on the sofa. I realize now that had I done so it would have resulted in a sweep instead of a world series victory.
I no sooner had written the piece when the wheels fell off the old town team. Wakefield gets a broken rib, Varitek needs knee surgery, then Nixon gets knocked out of the line up. That was followed by a road trip through Tampa and Kansas City in which the Sox lost 5 out of six including a sweep to the worst team in the league.
The hits kept coming. Manny's knee starts to act up, Ortiz is having heart palpitations and Wily Mo Pena's wrist flares up again. At one time this week the club fielded a team that did not have one player starting that had started last year.
The pitching was so bad it brought back memories of my own career as a windmiller. Some of the balls that were hit of me are still travelling.
So we finished August somewhere in the 9 and 20 range with the Yankees so far ahead that even the die hard optimists knew that a trading deadline deal was bound to be done. Last night it came to fruition with old David Wells being shipped out of town for the proverbial "player to be named later". It was a good deal for Boomer since he will be put into a heated National League race. It is rather an ignominious result for us die hards.
Well it has been a good run and it is back to the drawing board. Theo has a bit of a dent in his halo and he is probably a better baseball man as a result. I am no stranger to the following phrase, "wait till next year". I am also familiar with this one, Go Patriots" and I promise not to write anything positive about them.
It was like game four of the A.L. championship series in 04 might have been when I thought about changing my position on the sofa. I realize now that had I done so it would have resulted in a sweep instead of a world series victory.
I no sooner had written the piece when the wheels fell off the old town team. Wakefield gets a broken rib, Varitek needs knee surgery, then Nixon gets knocked out of the line up. That was followed by a road trip through Tampa and Kansas City in which the Sox lost 5 out of six including a sweep to the worst team in the league.
The hits kept coming. Manny's knee starts to act up, Ortiz is having heart palpitations and Wily Mo Pena's wrist flares up again. At one time this week the club fielded a team that did not have one player starting that had started last year.
The pitching was so bad it brought back memories of my own career as a windmiller. Some of the balls that were hit of me are still travelling.
So we finished August somewhere in the 9 and 20 range with the Yankees so far ahead that even the die hard optimists knew that a trading deadline deal was bound to be done. Last night it came to fruition with old David Wells being shipped out of town for the proverbial "player to be named later". It was a good deal for Boomer since he will be put into a heated National League race. It is rather an ignominious result for us die hards.
Well it has been a good run and it is back to the drawing board. Theo has a bit of a dent in his halo and he is probably a better baseball man as a result. I am no stranger to the following phrase, "wait till next year". I am also familiar with this one, Go Patriots" and I promise not to write anything positive about them.
Monday, August 28, 2006
Cable adventures
Smoke is coming out of my ears after spending the last 45 minutes (mostly on hold) trying to reach my cable provider to ask this question. Why do I see in tonight's edition of the local newspaper an ad for cable, phone and internet services for half the price I am currently paying?
The details although boring are kind of comical when you consider what the goal of the ad is. We have gotten a new cable provider in town so my provider is apparently trying to muddy the waters by competing for service with the other (third) provider.
After dialing the number and going through four automated voice menus I finally got a sales rep. I explained the situation. If I didn't get some pricing relief I would be going to the competition. The sales rep replied "well that is a promotion and only available to new customers". I replied as clearly as possible that it made little sense for them to lose me as a customer when I am paying twice the promotional rate. They would have to get two new customers from the ad in order to replace me. Wouldn't it make sense to make me a little happy and keep me?
This began a phone odyssey of sorts. Because she was in sales she was unable to handle my request for rate relief but she would be glad to send me to "customer service". I was watching the clock because I have called the company before and I know what their definition is of customer service. After 19 minutes I got another very pleasant person on the phone who listened patiently while I vented over the issue of seeing my service being advertised at half the price. Unfortunately she was unable to do anything about that because that was a job for the "customer retention" department. I asked why it takes sales ten seconds to answer the phone but it takes customer service 19 minutes to take the call? Would I be on the line holding for another 19 minutes? She said, "I don't think so."
As it turns out she was absolutely right. I spent the next 25 minutes on hold. All the while the same endless recording played over and over thanking me for holding and telling me the next available person would be taking my call and of course, "your call is important to us." If my call was so important why weren't they answering it?
Finally Dan got on the phone. He listened attentively and commented on a couple of things, a couple which were right and a couple that were wrong. I denied having any premium services but lo and behold he showed me things in the 300 channel range I never knew existed. He also told me I didn't need cable boxes.
The wrong items were the promotion prices and he said the promo number didn't exist. I explained to him that this was hard to refute since I was looking at a half page ad in the newspaper and would be glad to scan it and send it to him. He also said I was getting long distance service in my package, I replied that I didn't think so since AT&T was billing me monthly.
I was a little aggravated with Dan and he started to get a little testy but his attitude changed a bit when I mentioned that I had spent 25 minutes on hold and during that time I was able to speak to his competition's sales department twice ( their sales department picked up quick also) and get a rate quote and installation availability. I said under the circumstances his potential for retaining me was diminishing by the moment.
So the net result was all is well that ends well. Dan managed to get my long distance signed on (which I was already paying for) which now eliminated the At&T bill and he cancelled my premium services that I didn't know I had and never watched and he reduced my bill. So I went from paying $162 per month down to a total of $117. That reduction coupled with the elimination of the current long distance provider saved me about $55 a month.
The details although boring are kind of comical when you consider what the goal of the ad is. We have gotten a new cable provider in town so my provider is apparently trying to muddy the waters by competing for service with the other (third) provider.
After dialing the number and going through four automated voice menus I finally got a sales rep. I explained the situation. If I didn't get some pricing relief I would be going to the competition. The sales rep replied "well that is a promotion and only available to new customers". I replied as clearly as possible that it made little sense for them to lose me as a customer when I am paying twice the promotional rate. They would have to get two new customers from the ad in order to replace me. Wouldn't it make sense to make me a little happy and keep me?
This began a phone odyssey of sorts. Because she was in sales she was unable to handle my request for rate relief but she would be glad to send me to "customer service". I was watching the clock because I have called the company before and I know what their definition is of customer service. After 19 minutes I got another very pleasant person on the phone who listened patiently while I vented over the issue of seeing my service being advertised at half the price. Unfortunately she was unable to do anything about that because that was a job for the "customer retention" department. I asked why it takes sales ten seconds to answer the phone but it takes customer service 19 minutes to take the call? Would I be on the line holding for another 19 minutes? She said, "I don't think so."
As it turns out she was absolutely right. I spent the next 25 minutes on hold. All the while the same endless recording played over and over thanking me for holding and telling me the next available person would be taking my call and of course, "your call is important to us." If my call was so important why weren't they answering it?
Finally Dan got on the phone. He listened attentively and commented on a couple of things, a couple which were right and a couple that were wrong. I denied having any premium services but lo and behold he showed me things in the 300 channel range I never knew existed. He also told me I didn't need cable boxes.
The wrong items were the promotion prices and he said the promo number didn't exist. I explained to him that this was hard to refute since I was looking at a half page ad in the newspaper and would be glad to scan it and send it to him. He also said I was getting long distance service in my package, I replied that I didn't think so since AT&T was billing me monthly.
I was a little aggravated with Dan and he started to get a little testy but his attitude changed a bit when I mentioned that I had spent 25 minutes on hold and during that time I was able to speak to his competition's sales department twice ( their sales department picked up quick also) and get a rate quote and installation availability. I said under the circumstances his potential for retaining me was diminishing by the moment.
So the net result was all is well that ends well. Dan managed to get my long distance signed on (which I was already paying for) which now eliminated the At&T bill and he cancelled my premium services that I didn't know I had and never watched and he reduced my bill. So I went from paying $162 per month down to a total of $117. That reduction coupled with the elimination of the current long distance provider saved me about $55 a month.
The moral of this story is that you are probably being over charged for your phone, cable and internet services and you should be periodically pricing the competition. You will be able to find out the pricing easily because all the new sales departments answer the phone really quick.
Sunday, August 27, 2006
Carter adds to his legacy
Not content to allow the passage of time to allow people to forget his incompetence, Jimmy Carter has been very busy lately adding to his long resume.
Carter's most recent blunders include interviews with foreign newspapers explaining his take on the reasons why we are held in low esteem in the world and why the Bush administration is the reason for it. He is quick to add that he would have taken a different approach.
He reached new heights yesterday when he launched an unprecedented attack against the head of state of one of our most important and historically friendly allies. In an interview with the UK Telegraph Carter calls British Prime Minister Tony Blair subservient to Washington.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=QIMTSEDBOX1DTQFIQMFSFFWAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/news/2006/08/27/nblair27.xml
In a stunning display of ignorance or senility, Carter also exclaims that the Iraqi people are not better off as a result of the invasion by the U.S. Unfortunately the interviewer does not ask if Carter really means that they would be better off with Saddam Hussein building more mass grave sites.
It might be useful to look back a bit at the Georgia oracle and examine his record while in office to determine whether or not Jimmy's advice is worth listening to.
Despite having Democratic majorities in both the house and senate, Carter record of legislative success was very limited. The economy during his four years was a disaster. Inflation increased every year under his leadership going from 6 percent to 12 percent in four years. Unemployment reached 7.5% and in 1980 interest rates climbed to an unheard of 20%.
Carter responded on July 20 of 1979 with his now famous "National Malaise" speech in which he blamed the nation as a whole for his incompetence.
"The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our Nation".
Carter's economic numbers along with his penchant for blaming the people of the country instead of his policies resulted in a challenge from his own party in the 1980 primary. Although he is now a darling of the left, it was that wing of the party led by Sen. Edward Kennedy that was responsible for the primary challenge.
More than his economic policies, revolt in his own party and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, it was the American hostage taking in Iran that was responsible for the end of the Carter presidency by his crushing defeat by Ronald Reagan.
On November 4, 1979, following the toppling of the Shah of Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini, the American Embassy was invaded an 66 hostages were taken. Of those, 52 were held for 444 days while Carter stood by helplessly pounded by nightly coverage of the ordeal. Six months into the episode Carter launched a poorly planned, undermanned and poorly executed rescue effort that ended in disaster with the deaths of 8 U.S. service men.
The hostage taking event more than any other is responsible for the image of America among Islamic militants today. One can only wonder what might have been had Carter acted decisively with outrage over the invasion of sovereign embassy soil. Had Carter taken action instead of standing idly by wringing his hands then perhaps Khomeini might only be a small historical foot note instead of a rallying point for militant religious fanatics.
It would be good for us to keep in mind Carter's record during a period when he had influence each time we hear him talking about how differently he would do things in the current world events climate.
Carter's most recent blunders include interviews with foreign newspapers explaining his take on the reasons why we are held in low esteem in the world and why the Bush administration is the reason for it. He is quick to add that he would have taken a different approach.
He reached new heights yesterday when he launched an unprecedented attack against the head of state of one of our most important and historically friendly allies. In an interview with the UK Telegraph Carter calls British Prime Minister Tony Blair subservient to Washington.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=QIMTSEDBOX1DTQFIQMFSFFWAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/news/2006/08/27/nblair27.xml
In a stunning display of ignorance or senility, Carter also exclaims that the Iraqi people are not better off as a result of the invasion by the U.S. Unfortunately the interviewer does not ask if Carter really means that they would be better off with Saddam Hussein building more mass grave sites.
It might be useful to look back a bit at the Georgia oracle and examine his record while in office to determine whether or not Jimmy's advice is worth listening to.
Despite having Democratic majorities in both the house and senate, Carter record of legislative success was very limited. The economy during his four years was a disaster. Inflation increased every year under his leadership going from 6 percent to 12 percent in four years. Unemployment reached 7.5% and in 1980 interest rates climbed to an unheard of 20%.
Carter responded on July 20 of 1979 with his now famous "National Malaise" speech in which he blamed the nation as a whole for his incompetence.
"The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence. It is a crisis that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our Nation".
Carter's economic numbers along with his penchant for blaming the people of the country instead of his policies resulted in a challenge from his own party in the 1980 primary. Although he is now a darling of the left, it was that wing of the party led by Sen. Edward Kennedy that was responsible for the primary challenge.
More than his economic policies, revolt in his own party and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, it was the American hostage taking in Iran that was responsible for the end of the Carter presidency by his crushing defeat by Ronald Reagan.
On November 4, 1979, following the toppling of the Shah of Iran by Ayatollah Khomeini, the American Embassy was invaded an 66 hostages were taken. Of those, 52 were held for 444 days while Carter stood by helplessly pounded by nightly coverage of the ordeal. Six months into the episode Carter launched a poorly planned, undermanned and poorly executed rescue effort that ended in disaster with the deaths of 8 U.S. service men.
The hostage taking event more than any other is responsible for the image of America among Islamic militants today. One can only wonder what might have been had Carter acted decisively with outrage over the invasion of sovereign embassy soil. Had Carter taken action instead of standing idly by wringing his hands then perhaps Khomeini might only be a small historical foot note instead of a rallying point for militant religious fanatics.
It would be good for us to keep in mind Carter's record during a period when he had influence each time we hear him talking about how differently he would do things in the current world events climate.
Saturday, August 19, 2006
U.N. Useless Nations
The conflict in Lebanon was ended by United Nations resolution 1701 that brokered a temporary peace dependent upon a United Nations force of 15,000 peace keepers deployed in Southern Lebanon to act as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N06/465/03/PDF/N0646503.pdf?OpenElement
Although the ceasefire appears to be holding at this point it would seem to be only a matter of time before hostilities break out once again. The primary reason being the fecklessness of member nations as well as U.N Secretary Kofi Annan. Annan has insufficient weight to assemble a force with a clear cut mandate to implement the terms of the resolution.
The leader of the pack of course are the French who were thought to be major players in the region and willing to contribute a major portion of the U.N force. The French this week said that they were willing to dedicate a whopping 200 peace keepers (mostly engineers). The other major European power Germany, is willing to contribute nothing in terms of boots on the ground.
As to the terms of the resolution, the goals seem to be quite clear. Disarming Hezbollah, stopping the flow of Iranian weaponry in Lebanon and restoring some semblance of sovereignty to the lebanese government.
The exact wording, "Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the Government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the Government of Lebanon;"
This of course appears to be the crux of the matter. If the Lebanese Army wanted to or could disarm Hezbollah it should have happened long ago. They cannot because of the strength of Hezbollah and they will not because it is likely to plunge the country into civil war again.
That leaves the UNIFIL force (United Nations Interim Force) as the only force capable of the task. Capability and willingness are two different things. With the rise in popularity of the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah in the Arab world, it seems unlikely that any European power with an Islamic minority population will be willing to take on the task of disarming them knowing that it might inflame tensions in their own country.
Despite the specific language of the resolution and others before it regarding Hezbollah disarmament, potential European peace keeping nations are seeking clarification of the "rules of engagement" before committing to forces. In many European countries leaders will be mulling over this issue just long enough for the force to be filled with someone else.
Annan re-assured the Europeans by stating that the UNIFIL force would not be waging "war". Apparently Kofi thinks Nasrallah is willing to give up his remaining weaponry peacefully.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey have stepped to the plate with offers of major contributions, however one can only wonder how secure the Israelis feel about the deployment of troops from predominantly Islamic countries whose governments are hostile to Israel.
All of this continues to play into Iranian and Syrian plans to keep the area inflamed and the Israelis under pressure. The worst outcome would be the re-arming of Hezbollah under the protection of the multi national force. Add to that the possibility that if hostilities break out again, the Israelis would be firing into territory occupied by UNIFIL forces, the bulk of which might be sympathetic to their enemies.
Although the ceasefire appears to be holding at this point it would seem to be only a matter of time before hostilities break out once again. The primary reason being the fecklessness of member nations as well as U.N Secretary Kofi Annan. Annan has insufficient weight to assemble a force with a clear cut mandate to implement the terms of the resolution.
The leader of the pack of course are the French who were thought to be major players in the region and willing to contribute a major portion of the U.N force. The French this week said that they were willing to dedicate a whopping 200 peace keepers (mostly engineers). The other major European power Germany, is willing to contribute nothing in terms of boots on the ground.
As to the terms of the resolution, the goals seem to be quite clear. Disarming Hezbollah, stopping the flow of Iranian weaponry in Lebanon and restoring some semblance of sovereignty to the lebanese government.
The exact wording, "Emphasizes the importance of the extension of the control of the Government of Lebanon over all Lebanese territory in accordance with the provisions of resolution 1559 (2004) and resolution 1680 (2006), and of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, for it to exercise its full sovereignty, so that there will be no weapons without the consent of the Government of Lebanon and no authority other than that of the Government of Lebanon;"
This of course appears to be the crux of the matter. If the Lebanese Army wanted to or could disarm Hezbollah it should have happened long ago. They cannot because of the strength of Hezbollah and they will not because it is likely to plunge the country into civil war again.
That leaves the UNIFIL force (United Nations Interim Force) as the only force capable of the task. Capability and willingness are two different things. With the rise in popularity of the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah in the Arab world, it seems unlikely that any European power with an Islamic minority population will be willing to take on the task of disarming them knowing that it might inflame tensions in their own country.
Despite the specific language of the resolution and others before it regarding Hezbollah disarmament, potential European peace keeping nations are seeking clarification of the "rules of engagement" before committing to forces. In many European countries leaders will be mulling over this issue just long enough for the force to be filled with someone else.
Annan re-assured the Europeans by stating that the UNIFIL force would not be waging "war". Apparently Kofi thinks Nasrallah is willing to give up his remaining weaponry peacefully.
Indonesia, Malaysia and Turkey have stepped to the plate with offers of major contributions, however one can only wonder how secure the Israelis feel about the deployment of troops from predominantly Islamic countries whose governments are hostile to Israel.
All of this continues to play into Iranian and Syrian plans to keep the area inflamed and the Israelis under pressure. The worst outcome would be the re-arming of Hezbollah under the protection of the multi national force. Add to that the possibility that if hostilities break out again, the Israelis would be firing into territory occupied by UNIFIL forces, the bulk of which might be sympathetic to their enemies.
Sunday, August 13, 2006
The squeaky affluent get the grease
It is a beautiful Sunday morning and I am enjoying a look at the Globe when I came across one of those Massachusetts stories that make your head spin. The story involves a law suit by the Town of Lexington over noise levels created by the widening of Route 3 and a portion of Route 95 at the intersection of the two roadways. The crux of the suit involves the town's desire to have a sound barrier built along the sections bordering the town. http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2006/08/13/sound_and_fury_over_a_barrier/
It is apparent that the writer did not visit the affected areas for her story because no where in the article did it mention that the entire length of the Southbound section of Route 3 adjacent to Lexington is buffered by a 300 acre pristine woodland.
State Highway had rejected the barrier request on the basis of the cost and few number of residents involved. On the surface it would appear the reasons were sound.
It is absurd to waste 6 millions dollars on a fence that will benefit but a few affluent residents of Lexington. I doubt that there are 30 homes directly involved in this decision, making this a $200,000 per home boondoggle.
It would be comforting to think that the legislature had the brains to reject this foolishness but some how I doubt it will happen when you consider Sen. Havern thinks the decision is a victory. Perhaps Lexington town officials would rethink this item if the cost of it was deducted from their local aid?
There are neighborhoods in our town and others that back up directly to Route 95 with out so much as a tree to block the noise yet the State DPW can put everybody else on the back burner to assuage the concerns of a few fat cats.
I wonder how far 6 million dollars might go in the education budgets of Lawrence, Fall River, New Bedford and Roxbury?
As ridiculous as spending 6 million dollars on a fence is, by caving into such a frivolous law suit the state DPW sets itself up for even more attempts at gaining ridiculous entitlements. The message is quite simple. By filing the lawsuit Lexington was able to put itself ahead of 48 other communities that have had long standing complaints regarding highway noise and guess what, they are just ecstatic about it! They ought to be embarrassed.
The simple solution to this problem is that sound barriers along state highways should be banned completely unless everyone who needs one gets one. Under the current system it is the squeaky affluent who get the grease.
It is apparent that the writer did not visit the affected areas for her story because no where in the article did it mention that the entire length of the Southbound section of Route 3 adjacent to Lexington is buffered by a 300 acre pristine woodland.
State Highway had rejected the barrier request on the basis of the cost and few number of residents involved. On the surface it would appear the reasons were sound.
It is absurd to waste 6 millions dollars on a fence that will benefit but a few affluent residents of Lexington. I doubt that there are 30 homes directly involved in this decision, making this a $200,000 per home boondoggle.
It would be comforting to think that the legislature had the brains to reject this foolishness but some how I doubt it will happen when you consider Sen. Havern thinks the decision is a victory. Perhaps Lexington town officials would rethink this item if the cost of it was deducted from their local aid?
There are neighborhoods in our town and others that back up directly to Route 95 with out so much as a tree to block the noise yet the State DPW can put everybody else on the back burner to assuage the concerns of a few fat cats.
I wonder how far 6 million dollars might go in the education budgets of Lawrence, Fall River, New Bedford and Roxbury?
As ridiculous as spending 6 million dollars on a fence is, by caving into such a frivolous law suit the state DPW sets itself up for even more attempts at gaining ridiculous entitlements. The message is quite simple. By filing the lawsuit Lexington was able to put itself ahead of 48 other communities that have had long standing complaints regarding highway noise and guess what, they are just ecstatic about it! They ought to be embarrassed.
The simple solution to this problem is that sound barriers along state highways should be banned completely unless everyone who needs one gets one. Under the current system it is the squeaky affluent who get the grease.
Saturday, August 12, 2006
Foreclosures
What goes up surely comes down. This was proven in the natural world by Isaac Newton. It is soon to be proven again in in the free market world. One of the first recorded instances of a market crash was in 1637 in Holland when tulips were the craze. http://www.holland.nl/uk/holland/sights/tulips-history.html
Although tulips were not as vital to everyday life as housing, the same parallels can be drawn between the tulip craze as well as other instances of commodity and financial boom and bust cycles and the current cycle in the Massachusetts and national housing markets.
Fueled by a combination of very cheap money and creative or dangerous financing schemes, the market had gone wild since the post 9/11 rate reductions by the Fed. At the bottom of the rate cuts by the Fed, long term fixed mortgage settled in near 4.8%. Other variable rates linked to such thing as LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate)got as low as 1.21% in June of 2003.
The net result of this development was that the lowered cost of money enabled many stretch buyers who were shut out of home ownership now were in the market as buyers. Inevitably this demand increased the pricing dramatically. In addition to the cost of money was the new attitude by mortgage companies and banks that allowed for a buyer to get a first mortgage and then take out a second mortgage at a variable rate to finance the down payment.
It is the owner of variable rate mortgage instruments that now finds themselves in difficult straights. A $250,000 from three years ago could be up as much as $500 a month on the monthly payment. Couple that with a doubling of the heating and utilities costs as well as an average increase in the property taxes of as much as 35% in some communities and you can see how some families are struggling to meet the monthly expense of home ownership.
Now comes the cruel reality of asset speculation. If some people now find themselves unable to meet the monthly financial obligations they may seek to sell the property and escape the crushing debt burden. This of course is now not an available option because the number of homes coming to market has sharply reduced the prices and the homeowner may find themselves underwater in the new value of the home versus the price they bought it at.
The result of this is that Massachusetts is experiencing a significant rise in the number of foreclosure in the residential housing market.
http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2006/08/mass_a_leader_i.html
This report indicates that Massachusetts has had a 181% increase in foreclosure filings but even more ominously, that we are second only to California with cities in the top 20 for percentage of price-reduced homes.
An interesting aside to this problem is the impact it is having in the affordable housing market. As a result of Chapter 40B legislation there has been an enormous number of new projects under construction in the greater Boston region. Some are rental and some are condos. A case in point is the Grandview Farm project in Burlington.
The town offered the developers a sweetheart deal by granting them a ridiculously low price for the parcel in the center of town on which to build 42 condos with prices ranging from 150k for a one bedroom to 240k for a two bedroom. The buyers of the units were determined by lottery, age and by net worth restrictions.
As we approach the completion of the deal it is now possible that a worst case scenario develops. With the many of the 42 lottery winners putting their current homes on the market and the normal inventory taking longer to turn over we now have a glut of homes on the market. This of course will translate into even lower prices. Will this result in a number of the lottery winners taking their houses off the market and subsequently backing out of the deal? The impact of such a scenario is that the units that were once priced as affordable may now be left unsold.
This situation has potential legal ramifications because the terms of the deal provided for the prospective buyers to put down a non refundable 40 thousand dollar down payment. Apparently the money can be refunded if another buyer is found for the unit but what if that doesn't happen for a lengthy period of time or if it is at a lower price? Who takes the hit, the developer, the original lottery winner or the town?
In any event it will be some time before these and many other questions are answered. The Fed has come to its senses and paused for the time being in raising rates, however it may be to late. What now is is steady flow of foreclosures and price reduction may soon become a torrent. This will be aggravated further if we have increases in unemployment as a result of a Fed induced recession.
Although tulips were not as vital to everyday life as housing, the same parallels can be drawn between the tulip craze as well as other instances of commodity and financial boom and bust cycles and the current cycle in the Massachusetts and national housing markets.
Fueled by a combination of very cheap money and creative or dangerous financing schemes, the market had gone wild since the post 9/11 rate reductions by the Fed. At the bottom of the rate cuts by the Fed, long term fixed mortgage settled in near 4.8%. Other variable rates linked to such thing as LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate)got as low as 1.21% in June of 2003.
The net result of this development was that the lowered cost of money enabled many stretch buyers who were shut out of home ownership now were in the market as buyers. Inevitably this demand increased the pricing dramatically. In addition to the cost of money was the new attitude by mortgage companies and banks that allowed for a buyer to get a first mortgage and then take out a second mortgage at a variable rate to finance the down payment.
It is the owner of variable rate mortgage instruments that now finds themselves in difficult straights. A $250,000 from three years ago could be up as much as $500 a month on the monthly payment. Couple that with a doubling of the heating and utilities costs as well as an average increase in the property taxes of as much as 35% in some communities and you can see how some families are struggling to meet the monthly expense of home ownership.
Now comes the cruel reality of asset speculation. If some people now find themselves unable to meet the monthly financial obligations they may seek to sell the property and escape the crushing debt burden. This of course is now not an available option because the number of homes coming to market has sharply reduced the prices and the homeowner may find themselves underwater in the new value of the home versus the price they bought it at.
The result of this is that Massachusetts is experiencing a significant rise in the number of foreclosure in the residential housing market.
http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2006/08/mass_a_leader_i.html
This report indicates that Massachusetts has had a 181% increase in foreclosure filings but even more ominously, that we are second only to California with cities in the top 20 for percentage of price-reduced homes.
An interesting aside to this problem is the impact it is having in the affordable housing market. As a result of Chapter 40B legislation there has been an enormous number of new projects under construction in the greater Boston region. Some are rental and some are condos. A case in point is the Grandview Farm project in Burlington.
The town offered the developers a sweetheart deal by granting them a ridiculously low price for the parcel in the center of town on which to build 42 condos with prices ranging from 150k for a one bedroom to 240k for a two bedroom. The buyers of the units were determined by lottery, age and by net worth restrictions.
As we approach the completion of the deal it is now possible that a worst case scenario develops. With the many of the 42 lottery winners putting their current homes on the market and the normal inventory taking longer to turn over we now have a glut of homes on the market. This of course will translate into even lower prices. Will this result in a number of the lottery winners taking their houses off the market and subsequently backing out of the deal? The impact of such a scenario is that the units that were once priced as affordable may now be left unsold.
This situation has potential legal ramifications because the terms of the deal provided for the prospective buyers to put down a non refundable 40 thousand dollar down payment. Apparently the money can be refunded if another buyer is found for the unit but what if that doesn't happen for a lengthy period of time or if it is at a lower price? Who takes the hit, the developer, the original lottery winner or the town?
In any event it will be some time before these and many other questions are answered. The Fed has come to its senses and paused for the time being in raising rates, however it may be to late. What now is is steady flow of foreclosures and price reduction may soon become a torrent. This will be aggravated further if we have increases in unemployment as a result of a Fed induced recession.
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