Every since I was kid I always had an interest in gambling of some sort. The origins of this probably came from the women in my family. My earliest memories of my grandmother were her teaching me how to play gin and cribbage. Little did I know that this training would soon come into play starting around the time I was ten.
When she would visit along with some of my aunts on the weekends they would all sit down to play Michigan rummy or various kinds of poker. If at some time during the course of the evening, they needed another player at the table I would be recruited. That meant they either pulled me away from the television or sometimes even out of bed to play.
Over the years as I grew older I played more and more and also developed an interest in some sports action. This culminated in the end of my sports gambling career in the 1987 when the Patriots played the Denver Broncos in the AFC championship game. I was betting the Patriots and getting four points. With 26 seconds to go the Patriots were down by three and I was sure that my win was in the bag. That was until Rulon Jones sacked Tony Eason in the end zone and the Patriots lost by 5.
It was a similar experience that ended my poker playing career. I was in California on business and encountered my first legal poker palace. Most of the day was filled with the excitement of winning, but things then went to Hell in a hand basket very quickly. I left with only enough money for cab fare to get me to the airport. As it turned out it was only enough to get me about three miles from the airport and I had to walk the rest of the way.
It was these and other bitter experiences that have kept me out of casinos. I had never been to Las Vegas or Mohegan Sun or Foxwoods, primarily because I thought that if I ever went and won it would rekindle my interest and that I might never come home.
This past week I dispelled any of those fears. Back a few months ago in a weak moment I had agreed to join two friends in going to Las Vegas to meet a friend of ours who was coming in from the West coast. During the weeks leading up to the trip I was filled with the anticipation of seeing the action on the strip and feeling the excitement of the gambling capital of the world.
We landed Thursday night and from the moment I touched down I felt like Gomer Pyle might have felt in Paris. I was completely out of my element. I was home sick the moment the plane touched down. What's even worse is that I was as up tight as a reverend in a strip joint.
I couldn't prevent myself from analyzing almost every aspect of the place. Every step I took and every building I looked at made me think about how many losers it took to sustain a place of that magnitude. When I mentioned this to my friend Rod, he replied that if every body who went to Vegas with 2000 came back with 2100 then the place would be a collection of thatched huts instead of grand hotels. Who wants to visit thatched huts?
The conclusion I arrived at is that everything about the place is designed to separate a fool from his money. The most obvious examples are the casinos. Competitive card playing of any type requires a game plan and concentration. The casino knows this and thwarts this strategy in a couple of obvious ways. The music is obnoxiously loud, lights and colors assault you either with brightness or flashes. Finally if that hasn't jolted your concentration then certainly all the free booze you want finishes the job.
So rather than worrying about staying there I was more concerned about getting the Hell out. I played each day and never exceeded my limit and was pleased to learn that my stinginess earned me no comp credit in the casino.
The trip took a turn for the better with a trip to Hoover dam. I had always wanted to visit the dam and I confirmed that my true calling is not as a gambler but as a nerd. I knew most everything about the dam from books and films and was able to see in person the intake towers and the diversion tunnels and the power plants and all the other things that make the dam such a colossal achievement.
Further confirmation of my lack of gambling interest was exhibited at the last place we visited before we left. Sunday was the AFC conference championship between the Patriots and the Colts. After breakfast Sunday morning we sat in the sports book at Caesar's Palace and watched the tote board as the odds were being posted for all the days games. The Patriots were a very attractive 3 point dog and the money line was $100 to make $160. No thanks. In a weekend I had seen monuments to human ingenuity and human frailties. The dam made a bigger impression on me.
Thursday, January 25, 2007
Tuesday, January 16, 2007
Talent and brains win
Much of the Chargers Patriots post game talk has revolved around LaDainian Tomlinson complaints of a lack of class displayed by the Patriots in the post game celebration. According to LaDainian, the Patriots disrespected the Chargers because a few of the Patriots players mimicked the Shawn Merriman spasmodic sack dance at mid field on the Chargers logo. Apparently Tomlinson thought this was a bad example to set for youngsters. Perhaps LaDainian will bring this issue up with Merriman the next time he performs the dance himself. After all, Merriman did it 17 times during the season and he wasn't concerned for the children of San Diego.
He also had little to say about Merriman's four game suspension for steroid use during the season. He finds celebration more disrespectful than cheating. Speaking of disrespect perhaps LaDainian might also mention that victory parade planning should happen after a victory. While he is at it he might remind Merriman that sending Jason Taylor of the Dolphins popcorn to eat while he watched Merrriman in the Super Bowl was a tad presumptuous.
While Tomlinson was focused on the non issue of respect he forgot to mention a number of things that contributed directly to the Chargers loss. Despite the fact that his team is clearly the best team in the NFL he and his team mates are going to be watching the rest of the games this year because they demonstrated that they are a dumb team collectively.
The Chargers made critical errors at critical times and they were errors that smart players and smart coaches don't make. The first critical error was made by Eric Parker with 5:32 seconds left in the third quarter and the Patriots trailing by 4 points. The Patriots had to punt from their own 18 to Parker who muffed the punt. Instead of simply falling on the ball Parker tried to pick it up and run. Antwain Spann knocked him senseless and Dave Thomas recovered for the Patriots at the San Diego 31. The San Diego defense was stout and had Brady fumbling on third down as the ball was recovered by Matt Light and advanced to the Sand Diego 34. At this point it would have been 4th and 13 and the Patriots would have to try a very long field goal.
Now comes stupidity exhibition number two. As Light was trying to run the ball, Daniel Graham put a block on Drayton Edwards that made Edwards look like he was laying in a coffin. Edwards took umbrage at the block and proceeded to head butt Graham. The resulting personal foul gave the Patriots a first down and resulted in a short field goal to cut the San Diego lead to 14 to 13.
The Chargers to their credit responded two possessions later with 8:40 to go to take a 21-13 lead. Now came the back breaker of the day. On fourth down 5 yards to go from the San Diego 41, Marlon McCree intercepted Brady. As he proceeded to go up field Troy Brown stripped him of the ball and Reche Cauldwell recovered at the San Diego 32. After the game and even now two days later McCree is talking about the fact that he is a play maker and given the chance he would do the same thing again. A REAL playmaker would simply have knocked the ball to the ground and San Diego would have taken over on downs.
Now comes some coaching stupidity. Despite the fact that every one in the country watching the game could see that Mcree had fumbled, Schottenheimer wasted a time out challenging the refs call. This would come back to haunt them on the last drive of the game as twice Rivers had to stop the clock by spiking the ball. If one of those wasted plays had made another ten yards, San Diego might have tied the game by giving their kicker a chance at a last second 44 yard field goal instead of a 54 yarder.
Additional coaching blunders were the 4th down and 11 try in the first quarter. What the Hell was Marty thinking? Kick the field goal and move on. After the Patriots tied the scored in the fourth quarter with the Kevin Faulk 2 point conversion while Schottenheimer was ignored trying to call a time out, San Diego got the ball with 4:30 to go on their own 29 yard line.
So your the coach and you have the best running back in football in your back field with your entire season on the line. What do you do? Well on first down they give it to Tomlinson and with the entire Patriots defense keying on him he gains five yards anyway. Strangely on second and third down the Chargers had their young quarterback throw the ball. Inexplicably, Tomlinson had a paltry 23 touches in the entire game. So it is three and out and they punt the ball to the best clutch quarterback in football with 3:30 on the clock and the ball on his own 15 yard line.
Every one including the San Diego fans knew what was going to happen. It took two minutes and 20 seconds and Brady stuck a fork in them. It really is to bad that the best team in football, with home field advantage, two weeks to prepare and the most prolific scorer in league history
will be watching games next week. It will give them time to prepare to play in the pro bowl.
He also had little to say about Merriman's four game suspension for steroid use during the season. He finds celebration more disrespectful than cheating. Speaking of disrespect perhaps LaDainian might also mention that victory parade planning should happen after a victory. While he is at it he might remind Merriman that sending Jason Taylor of the Dolphins popcorn to eat while he watched Merrriman in the Super Bowl was a tad presumptuous.
While Tomlinson was focused on the non issue of respect he forgot to mention a number of things that contributed directly to the Chargers loss. Despite the fact that his team is clearly the best team in the NFL he and his team mates are going to be watching the rest of the games this year because they demonstrated that they are a dumb team collectively.
The Chargers made critical errors at critical times and they were errors that smart players and smart coaches don't make. The first critical error was made by Eric Parker with 5:32 seconds left in the third quarter and the Patriots trailing by 4 points. The Patriots had to punt from their own 18 to Parker who muffed the punt. Instead of simply falling on the ball Parker tried to pick it up and run. Antwain Spann knocked him senseless and Dave Thomas recovered for the Patriots at the San Diego 31. The San Diego defense was stout and had Brady fumbling on third down as the ball was recovered by Matt Light and advanced to the Sand Diego 34. At this point it would have been 4th and 13 and the Patriots would have to try a very long field goal.
Now comes stupidity exhibition number two. As Light was trying to run the ball, Daniel Graham put a block on Drayton Edwards that made Edwards look like he was laying in a coffin. Edwards took umbrage at the block and proceeded to head butt Graham. The resulting personal foul gave the Patriots a first down and resulted in a short field goal to cut the San Diego lead to 14 to 13.
The Chargers to their credit responded two possessions later with 8:40 to go to take a 21-13 lead. Now came the back breaker of the day. On fourth down 5 yards to go from the San Diego 41, Marlon McCree intercepted Brady. As he proceeded to go up field Troy Brown stripped him of the ball and Reche Cauldwell recovered at the San Diego 32. After the game and even now two days later McCree is talking about the fact that he is a play maker and given the chance he would do the same thing again. A REAL playmaker would simply have knocked the ball to the ground and San Diego would have taken over on downs.
Now comes some coaching stupidity. Despite the fact that every one in the country watching the game could see that Mcree had fumbled, Schottenheimer wasted a time out challenging the refs call. This would come back to haunt them on the last drive of the game as twice Rivers had to stop the clock by spiking the ball. If one of those wasted plays had made another ten yards, San Diego might have tied the game by giving their kicker a chance at a last second 44 yard field goal instead of a 54 yarder.
Additional coaching blunders were the 4th down and 11 try in the first quarter. What the Hell was Marty thinking? Kick the field goal and move on. After the Patriots tied the scored in the fourth quarter with the Kevin Faulk 2 point conversion while Schottenheimer was ignored trying to call a time out, San Diego got the ball with 4:30 to go on their own 29 yard line.
So your the coach and you have the best running back in football in your back field with your entire season on the line. What do you do? Well on first down they give it to Tomlinson and with the entire Patriots defense keying on him he gains five yards anyway. Strangely on second and third down the Chargers had their young quarterback throw the ball. Inexplicably, Tomlinson had a paltry 23 touches in the entire game. So it is three and out and they punt the ball to the best clutch quarterback in football with 3:30 on the clock and the ball on his own 15 yard line.
Every one including the San Diego fans knew what was going to happen. It took two minutes and 20 seconds and Brady stuck a fork in them. It really is to bad that the best team in football, with home field advantage, two weeks to prepare and the most prolific scorer in league history
will be watching games next week. It will give them time to prepare to play in the pro bowl.
Sunday, January 14, 2007
In Brady we trust
Let me admit up front that I am an insufferable homer. When the Patriots, Red Sox or Celtics suit up I believe they are going to win. Unfortunately, the Bruins don't count since they are dead to me until Jacobs sells the team.
So it should come as no surprise that I am about to tell you that the Patriots will prevail today over the best team in football, the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers went 14 and 2 in the regular season and were only two field goals away from joining the 16 and 0 Miami Dolphins in football lore. They have 9 players going to the pro bowl and can say with some authority that three of them may be the best players in the league at their positions. LaDainian Tomlimson has been all world winning the leagues MVP this year. He is in the Gale Sayers Barry Sanders mold. He can run, catch and he can pass.
Antonio Gates is the prototypical tight end first typified by the Colts great John Mackey. Great hands, great speed and unlike Mackey this guy is huge. His leaping skills as a former basketball player make for nightmares for any safety having to cover him in the red zone.
Then there is Shawn Merriman. At 6 feet 4 inches tall and 272 pounds this guy is an absolute menace as a linebacker. We don't have to wonder about where he got these tremendous physical skills since he served a 4 game suspension this year because of using the juice. The Patriots can only hope that any steroid benefit has started to wear off. Despite missing four games the guy still led the league in sacks with 17.
The average football fan knows all of these things. We also know that Tomlinson scored 28 running touchdowns which was more than any other team scored on the ground. The last time the two teams faced off against one another, the Chargers ended the Patriots 21 game winning streak 41 to 17 and they had the temerity to do it in the Patriots own home.
None of those things matter today. Regardless of the final score this is how things will go today. Tomlinson will get hit harder than he has ever been hit in his entire career. Any time he comes near the ball or tries to leave the line of scrimmage he will be hit. If he sneaks out of the back field through the middle of the line a defensive lineman will ring his bell. If he lines up as a receiver he will be hit on the line by a line backer. If he carries the ball every defensive player will fly to him to land a blow on him.
Football is a brutal ground acquisition game and Belechik teams have demonstrated over and over again that they will be prepared to give you a beating. This is Tomlinson's sixth year of carrying the ball more than 300 times. He has played in every game of those six years never gaining less than 1200 yards in a season. There are two things in life that get old very quickly, dogs and running backs. He may not get old today but after the length of the season and the number of carries he has there is no way he can be entirely fresh. Tomlinson is in the stratosphere with the other elite backs but he will not win this game by himself.
The Belechik formula of winning is to try and take away your best weapon and make you beat him with someone else. The question for the Chargers will be can Philip Rivers exploit the over concentration on Tomlinson and make the Patriots pay through his passing game.
If the Patriots are outclassed in the individual talent comparison there are a number of places that they outclass the Chargers. This is a veteran battle tested team that has been in many big game situations. On offense they are led by a player who is 11 and 1 in play off games. Time and time again we have seen Brady line up against defenses that we thought would kill him and then watched in amazement as he has simply picked them apart. With two minutes to go and your team down by a score, who would you rather have directing your final drive, Philip Rivers or Tom Brady?
Perhaps the score will be such that Rivers won't be in that situation however it has to happen some time and if today is that day will a very young and inexperienced Rivers rise to the occasion? On the other hand Brady has demonstrated over and over again that he can simply intimidate a defense at the end of a game.
Coaching is another area in which the Patriots have a demonstrable edge. Marty Schottenheimer will be suspect until he finally brings a title all the way home.
The Chargers have the most individuals with talent but do they have the best team? This is their first really big game in a long time. They are at home where the expectations and pressure will be enormous. They are playing the best road team in the NFL led by a quarterback who has dashed the dreams of many championship wannabes. My money is on Brady and the Patriots.
So it should come as no surprise that I am about to tell you that the Patriots will prevail today over the best team in football, the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers went 14 and 2 in the regular season and were only two field goals away from joining the 16 and 0 Miami Dolphins in football lore. They have 9 players going to the pro bowl and can say with some authority that three of them may be the best players in the league at their positions. LaDainian Tomlimson has been all world winning the leagues MVP this year. He is in the Gale Sayers Barry Sanders mold. He can run, catch and he can pass.
Antonio Gates is the prototypical tight end first typified by the Colts great John Mackey. Great hands, great speed and unlike Mackey this guy is huge. His leaping skills as a former basketball player make for nightmares for any safety having to cover him in the red zone.
Then there is Shawn Merriman. At 6 feet 4 inches tall and 272 pounds this guy is an absolute menace as a linebacker. We don't have to wonder about where he got these tremendous physical skills since he served a 4 game suspension this year because of using the juice. The Patriots can only hope that any steroid benefit has started to wear off. Despite missing four games the guy still led the league in sacks with 17.
The average football fan knows all of these things. We also know that Tomlinson scored 28 running touchdowns which was more than any other team scored on the ground. The last time the two teams faced off against one another, the Chargers ended the Patriots 21 game winning streak 41 to 17 and they had the temerity to do it in the Patriots own home.
None of those things matter today. Regardless of the final score this is how things will go today. Tomlinson will get hit harder than he has ever been hit in his entire career. Any time he comes near the ball or tries to leave the line of scrimmage he will be hit. If he sneaks out of the back field through the middle of the line a defensive lineman will ring his bell. If he lines up as a receiver he will be hit on the line by a line backer. If he carries the ball every defensive player will fly to him to land a blow on him.
Football is a brutal ground acquisition game and Belechik teams have demonstrated over and over again that they will be prepared to give you a beating. This is Tomlinson's sixth year of carrying the ball more than 300 times. He has played in every game of those six years never gaining less than 1200 yards in a season. There are two things in life that get old very quickly, dogs and running backs. He may not get old today but after the length of the season and the number of carries he has there is no way he can be entirely fresh. Tomlinson is in the stratosphere with the other elite backs but he will not win this game by himself.
The Belechik formula of winning is to try and take away your best weapon and make you beat him with someone else. The question for the Chargers will be can Philip Rivers exploit the over concentration on Tomlinson and make the Patriots pay through his passing game.
If the Patriots are outclassed in the individual talent comparison there are a number of places that they outclass the Chargers. This is a veteran battle tested team that has been in many big game situations. On offense they are led by a player who is 11 and 1 in play off games. Time and time again we have seen Brady line up against defenses that we thought would kill him and then watched in amazement as he has simply picked them apart. With two minutes to go and your team down by a score, who would you rather have directing your final drive, Philip Rivers or Tom Brady?
Perhaps the score will be such that Rivers won't be in that situation however it has to happen some time and if today is that day will a very young and inexperienced Rivers rise to the occasion? On the other hand Brady has demonstrated over and over again that he can simply intimidate a defense at the end of a game.
Coaching is another area in which the Patriots have a demonstrable edge. Marty Schottenheimer will be suspect until he finally brings a title all the way home.
The Chargers have the most individuals with talent but do they have the best team? This is their first really big game in a long time. They are at home where the expectations and pressure will be enormous. They are playing the best road team in the NFL led by a quarterback who has dashed the dreams of many championship wannabes. My money is on Brady and the Patriots.
Thursday, January 11, 2007
Gas under 2 bucks soon
If one of the manifestations of global warming is that the price of oil continues to fall then perhaps it is not a bad thing! Only kidding of course. It is true that to a certain extent the warm weather in the Northeast is contributing to the decline of oil prices but only to a small degree. The primary reason that U.S.light sweet crude oil prices closed at $51.88 a barrel today is the reverse of the reason why it hit $78 a few months ago. Speculative money is running from oil as fast as it can.
Today's supply numbers have only exacerbated the problem for the speculators. Oil prices are in free fall and any body who has a good deal of exposure in futures contracts wants to dump them as fast as they can. The rise in supply figures are not as a result of a significant decline in consumption although that and other things such as ethanol have played a part. The real reason was the rush to production. When oil peaked at $78.40 in July and say you had a few wells what would you be doing? I bet you would be pumping day and night to get that oil to market as quickly as possible. Inevitably that would lead to a glut in the market place and that is what we are going to experience over the next year.
A trend like this is going to be very hard for OPEC to reverse. You will hear on Bloomberg and CNBC about the cartel meeting to discuss emergency production cuts but getting a consensus on that is going to be very difficult. The one thing OPEC members have in common beyond the fact that they are oil producers is that they also cheat on production quotas.
The cheating will be necessary from a number of strategic perspectives for the producers. Iran is busy meddling in world affairs while simultaneously trying to build a nuke program and placate the masses at home. Saudi Arabia will need additional moneys to invest in the defense of the Sunni minority in Iraq as American involvement slowly winds down over the next year or two.
President Bush may support a surge of troops in the near term but if sectarian violence continues between Shia and Sunni as surrogates for other regional powers how can that be bad for us if we make them fund the violence themselves?
The other members are in similar situations. Iraq needs to pump as much as possible for obvious reasons. Venezuela's Chavez has recently announced nationalization of big business in his country. Unless he attempts an out right theft of these assets he is going to need a big bundle of cash to pay off the owners. Nigeria needs any dime it can get from anywhere so it is inconceivable that they will cut production.
Russia is a huge player in this situation as well. They are going to continue production and exploration and they are going to exploit any existing and new markets that they can compete in.
Where will it all end? Well we might find an answer by looking back just a few years to price levels before all this non sense started. According to the BBC, oil was at $31 a barrel in 2003 and $41 in 2004. Those prices did not reflect any of the alternative fuels that have come to market since that time.
Barring any unforeseen disasters of a natural or unnatural sort we will be seeing a return to pre bubble prices over the next 12 months. On the way up there wasn't a damn thing we could do about it. Oil producers are going to find themselves in the same boat on the way down. What goes around comes around fellas!
Today's supply numbers have only exacerbated the problem for the speculators. Oil prices are in free fall and any body who has a good deal of exposure in futures contracts wants to dump them as fast as they can. The rise in supply figures are not as a result of a significant decline in consumption although that and other things such as ethanol have played a part. The real reason was the rush to production. When oil peaked at $78.40 in July and say you had a few wells what would you be doing? I bet you would be pumping day and night to get that oil to market as quickly as possible. Inevitably that would lead to a glut in the market place and that is what we are going to experience over the next year.
A trend like this is going to be very hard for OPEC to reverse. You will hear on Bloomberg and CNBC about the cartel meeting to discuss emergency production cuts but getting a consensus on that is going to be very difficult. The one thing OPEC members have in common beyond the fact that they are oil producers is that they also cheat on production quotas.
The cheating will be necessary from a number of strategic perspectives for the producers. Iran is busy meddling in world affairs while simultaneously trying to build a nuke program and placate the masses at home. Saudi Arabia will need additional moneys to invest in the defense of the Sunni minority in Iraq as American involvement slowly winds down over the next year or two.
President Bush may support a surge of troops in the near term but if sectarian violence continues between Shia and Sunni as surrogates for other regional powers how can that be bad for us if we make them fund the violence themselves?
The other members are in similar situations. Iraq needs to pump as much as possible for obvious reasons. Venezuela's Chavez has recently announced nationalization of big business in his country. Unless he attempts an out right theft of these assets he is going to need a big bundle of cash to pay off the owners. Nigeria needs any dime it can get from anywhere so it is inconceivable that they will cut production.
Russia is a huge player in this situation as well. They are going to continue production and exploration and they are going to exploit any existing and new markets that they can compete in.
Where will it all end? Well we might find an answer by looking back just a few years to price levels before all this non sense started. According to the BBC, oil was at $31 a barrel in 2003 and $41 in 2004. Those prices did not reflect any of the alternative fuels that have come to market since that time.
Barring any unforeseen disasters of a natural or unnatural sort we will be seeing a return to pre bubble prices over the next 12 months. On the way up there wasn't a damn thing we could do about it. Oil producers are going to find themselves in the same boat on the way down. What goes around comes around fellas!
Saturday, January 06, 2007
Go Pats
The Patriots meet the Jets Sunday in the rubber match. The teams split the previous two engagements with each team failing to hold the home field advantage. This match up is filled with off field drama as both head coaches have a good deal of experience with the other coach's organization. Bill Belechik served as defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells in New York and Jets coach Eric Mangini served in the same capacity under Belechik last year for the Patriots.
As Belechik constantly points out, none of those things matter come Sunday. It is a new game with all the history and drama and previous results meaning nothing.
On paper and according to the bookies this should seem to be somewhat of a mismatch. Team statistics show the Patriot's with an impressive season long performance in a number of areas that make a telling difference. They rank 4th total first downs, 5th in third down conversion, 1st in fourth down conversions, 4th in total offensive plays and second in total points allowed. In the all important turnover ratio the Patriots are +8 while the Jets are even. The December record for the Pats has followed previous Belechik history as they went 4 and 1 down the stretch. The primary weakness was the passing game as Brady integrated almost a completely new roster of wide receivers. Early in the season Brady was hitting his passes in the low 50% range. By seasons end he had brought that up to nearly 62%.
The line at game time is likely to favor the Patriots by eight points. This seems like an unlikely outcome given the history between the two teams. The division rivals have seen enough of each other so that there is not a lot of mystery. However, the primary factor here is that the Patriots are simply that much better personnel wise than the Jets. Mangini and company have done a great job getting this far with a team that virtually no one figured was going to go much better than 8 and 8.
The primary keys to victory for the Patriots will be better protection for Brady and a solid running game. They may use a no huddle offense to prevent the Jets from making situational substitutions as well as quick counts. In recent games, Brady has been using the old spread offense with one back or an empty back field to spread the defense and open holes for his short passing game.
On defense, the weakness of Chad Pennington's throwing arm will be exploited by the Patriots secondary pressing the Jets receivers at the line of scrimmage. The Jets have the lowest attempts and completions of passes of 30 or more yards in the entire league. The Patriots front seven will bring a lot of pressure and with Wilfork returning from injury to the nose tackle position Pennington will have a problem stepping up in the pocket. Prediction: Patriots 27 Jets 10
In other games;
I love Parcells but Terrell Owens is loathsome. Seattle wins and sends the "Boys" home for an off season filled with finger pointing.
The red hot Eagles and Jeff Garcia prevail over the Giants
The Chief's Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards keeping Peyton Manning on the bench as the Colts porous defense is exploited.
As Belechik constantly points out, none of those things matter come Sunday. It is a new game with all the history and drama and previous results meaning nothing.
On paper and according to the bookies this should seem to be somewhat of a mismatch. Team statistics show the Patriot's with an impressive season long performance in a number of areas that make a telling difference. They rank 4th total first downs, 5th in third down conversion, 1st in fourth down conversions, 4th in total offensive plays and second in total points allowed. In the all important turnover ratio the Patriots are +8 while the Jets are even. The December record for the Pats has followed previous Belechik history as they went 4 and 1 down the stretch. The primary weakness was the passing game as Brady integrated almost a completely new roster of wide receivers. Early in the season Brady was hitting his passes in the low 50% range. By seasons end he had brought that up to nearly 62%.
The line at game time is likely to favor the Patriots by eight points. This seems like an unlikely outcome given the history between the two teams. The division rivals have seen enough of each other so that there is not a lot of mystery. However, the primary factor here is that the Patriots are simply that much better personnel wise than the Jets. Mangini and company have done a great job getting this far with a team that virtually no one figured was going to go much better than 8 and 8.
The primary keys to victory for the Patriots will be better protection for Brady and a solid running game. They may use a no huddle offense to prevent the Jets from making situational substitutions as well as quick counts. In recent games, Brady has been using the old spread offense with one back or an empty back field to spread the defense and open holes for his short passing game.
On defense, the weakness of Chad Pennington's throwing arm will be exploited by the Patriots secondary pressing the Jets receivers at the line of scrimmage. The Jets have the lowest attempts and completions of passes of 30 or more yards in the entire league. The Patriots front seven will bring a lot of pressure and with Wilfork returning from injury to the nose tackle position Pennington will have a problem stepping up in the pocket. Prediction: Patriots 27 Jets 10
In other games;
I love Parcells but Terrell Owens is loathsome. Seattle wins and sends the "Boys" home for an off season filled with finger pointing.
The red hot Eagles and Jeff Garcia prevail over the Giants
The Chief's Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards keeping Peyton Manning on the bench as the Colts porous defense is exploited.
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