Let me admit up front that I am an insufferable homer. When the Patriots, Red Sox or Celtics suit up I believe they are going to win. Unfortunately, the Bruins don't count since they are dead to me until Jacobs sells the team.
So it should come as no surprise that I am about to tell you that the Patriots will prevail today over the best team in football, the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers went 14 and 2 in the regular season and were only two field goals away from joining the 16 and 0 Miami Dolphins in football lore. They have 9 players going to the pro bowl and can say with some authority that three of them may be the best players in the league at their positions. LaDainian Tomlimson has been all world winning the leagues MVP this year. He is in the Gale Sayers Barry Sanders mold. He can run, catch and he can pass.
Antonio Gates is the prototypical tight end first typified by the Colts great John Mackey. Great hands, great speed and unlike Mackey this guy is huge. His leaping skills as a former basketball player make for nightmares for any safety having to cover him in the red zone.
Then there is Shawn Merriman. At 6 feet 4 inches tall and 272 pounds this guy is an absolute menace as a linebacker. We don't have to wonder about where he got these tremendous physical skills since he served a 4 game suspension this year because of using the juice. The Patriots can only hope that any steroid benefit has started to wear off. Despite missing four games the guy still led the league in sacks with 17.
The average football fan knows all of these things. We also know that Tomlinson scored 28 running touchdowns which was more than any other team scored on the ground. The last time the two teams faced off against one another, the Chargers ended the Patriots 21 game winning streak 41 to 17 and they had the temerity to do it in the Patriots own home.
None of those things matter today. Regardless of the final score this is how things will go today. Tomlinson will get hit harder than he has ever been hit in his entire career. Any time he comes near the ball or tries to leave the line of scrimmage he will be hit. If he sneaks out of the back field through the middle of the line a defensive lineman will ring his bell. If he lines up as a receiver he will be hit on the line by a line backer. If he carries the ball every defensive player will fly to him to land a blow on him.
Football is a brutal ground acquisition game and Belechik teams have demonstrated over and over again that they will be prepared to give you a beating. This is Tomlinson's sixth year of carrying the ball more than 300 times. He has played in every game of those six years never gaining less than 1200 yards in a season. There are two things in life that get old very quickly, dogs and running backs. He may not get old today but after the length of the season and the number of carries he has there is no way he can be entirely fresh. Tomlinson is in the stratosphere with the other elite backs but he will not win this game by himself.
The Belechik formula of winning is to try and take away your best weapon and make you beat him with someone else. The question for the Chargers will be can Philip Rivers exploit the over concentration on Tomlinson and make the Patriots pay through his passing game.
If the Patriots are outclassed in the individual talent comparison there are a number of places that they outclass the Chargers. This is a veteran battle tested team that has been in many big game situations. On offense they are led by a player who is 11 and 1 in play off games. Time and time again we have seen Brady line up against defenses that we thought would kill him and then watched in amazement as he has simply picked them apart. With two minutes to go and your team down by a score, who would you rather have directing your final drive, Philip Rivers or Tom Brady?
Perhaps the score will be such that Rivers won't be in that situation however it has to happen some time and if today is that day will a very young and inexperienced Rivers rise to the occasion? On the other hand Brady has demonstrated over and over again that he can simply intimidate a defense at the end of a game.
Coaching is another area in which the Patriots have a demonstrable edge. Marty Schottenheimer will be suspect until he finally brings a title all the way home.
The Chargers have the most individuals with talent but do they have the best team? This is their first really big game in a long time. They are at home where the expectations and pressure will be enormous. They are playing the best road team in the NFL led by a quarterback who has dashed the dreams of many championship wannabes. My money is on Brady and the Patriots.
