The April 22 edition of the Times Chronicle includes comments regarding my concern about a simultaneous presentation of a zoning change by the planning director and an application to change a parcel to that as of yet non existent zone by New England Executive Park.
Mr. Vaughn of Riemer and Braunstein describes the simultaneous presentation of the Office Park Zone by the planning director and the application by New England Executive Park to that as of yet non existent zone as both “appropriate and common place.” These simultaneous proposals are neither common place nor is it appropriate for Burlington to conduct business in such a foolhardy manner.
The two examples that Mr. Vaughn described in Burlington were not at all comparable to what he now proposes. The Office Park Zone has very far reaching implications for the community as it relates to one of the most dense, congested and environmentally sensitive areas in the town.
Two more comparable zoning issues were the Northwest Park and Town Center overlay district both of which had multi board study committees that deliberated for months and in the case of the center overlay, for years.
I understand Mr. Vaughn’s duty to his client to get approvals as quickly as possible with as little public scrutiny as possible. My job as moderator is quite the opposite. I work for the town meeting members and my advice to them at this point is that the proposals as currently constituted are not examples of good government.
It is simply foolish to suggest that our zoning is any kind of a barrier to development or is the cause of New Executive Park’s vacancy rate. We have put up more development than any community our size in the state.
This is the same law firm that has told us that the PDD at Northwest Park would result in a flood of class A tenants and are proposing the same for the Land Locked parcel. Why isn’t our zoning a barrier to those? Could it be that we are over built or their rental rates are too high or that we are in the most severe economic down turn in 70 years that is the reason that business is slow?
Could it be that Blackstone’s buyout of Equity office in one of the largest leverage transactions in history is causing them to seek more development rights as quickly as possible?
I am not alone in the community in wondering how this Office Park designation proposal has even come about. None of the boards or town meeting requested that the planning director propose a new zone. Nor am I alone in wondering how it is that an application for the zoning change is progressing at the same time that the zone is in the public hearing process. How is it the applicant is so informed as to the content of the proposal before the boards or town meeting have seen the finished product?
If an Office Park designation is deemed to be appropriate then town meeting will act accordingly. It is not unreasonable to suggest that applications for that new designation wait until the attorney general has actually approved the new legislation before the town meeting takes up changes to that zone.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Deleveraging
Leverage is commonly referred to as borrowing money with the hope of increasing returns to equity. A business takes out a loan to increase its inventory so as to sell more goods and increase its profits. A consumer might take a mortgage on a larger home so that as the home appreciates, the return on his or her original investment is magnified.
Margin is another example. You buy stock and then borrow against it to buy more stock so that when (if) the stock rises your return is enhanced. These are wonderful strategies but only when under certain conditions and best of all of course is when they work.
The past 2 years are classic examples of when these strategies have failed completely. A good many homes have fallen below the purchase price, the stock market has tanked and business has certainly been curtailed. Add to that, low returns for cash invested and you have a complete turn around in consumer attitudes.
This can be reflected in this months consumer debt figures released by the Federal Reserve http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G19/Current/ While the government is busy trying to pump up the economy by issuing huge amounts of public debt, the American consumer is deleveraging as fast as possible. Consumer debt has dropped three out of the last four quarters and for this quarter revolving debt dropped on an annualized rate by a whopping 9.7%.
Revolving debt is dropping because of analysis by the consumer. The simplest is to take a look at what yield you are getting on your savings account and what you are paying for non tax deductible interest on your credit card. If you are getting 2% yield and are in a 28% tax bracket, after state and federal taxes your net yield is about 1.4%. If you are paying between 9 and 15% on your credit card, it simply makes no sense to carry any kind of a balance on your card.
Well that's great but what if you don't have a savings account at the moment? The most tax efficient way to reduce your leverage is to cut up your card and refinance your home ( if you have equity) to both a lower rate as well as shifting that revolving debt into either a home equity loan or a first mortgage. The numbers are much more attractive. Your 9% card interest now costs some where in the 4.5% to 5.5% range and the interest is deductible. Again if your in a 28% tax bracket, a 5.5% cost of money now becomes somewhere near 3.7% after state and federal deductions.
This is all well and good if you have options such as money in the bank and equity in your home. The answer of course for all of us and the country in general is to stop spending money we don't have. Yes, it may slow the recovery and a new national attitude toward debt might mean slower economic growth off into the future.
That growth however would be real growth, not the illusion of a pumped up economy roaring along built on the false foundation of borrowed money. The reason we are in the economic straits we are today is excessive debt in almost all segments of our economy, consumers, businesses, non profits, municipalities, and state and federal governments have all been on a spending spree which has resulted in the entire nation having some sort of a mortgage.
Perhaps the current strategy of pumping more borrowed government money into the system is the right one to revive the U.S. and world economies, however when we get things straightened out a bit, the nation and indeed even each of us as individuals has to address the idea of using enormous debt as the foundation of a sound personal and national economy. It simply will not work over the long haul.
In Ben Franklin's book, The Way to Wealth, he says this about debt, "when you run in debt, you give another power over your liberty." The Chinese currently own over a trillion dollars in our government bonds, is that a good thing?
Margin is another example. You buy stock and then borrow against it to buy more stock so that when (if) the stock rises your return is enhanced. These are wonderful strategies but only when under certain conditions and best of all of course is when they work.
The past 2 years are classic examples of when these strategies have failed completely. A good many homes have fallen below the purchase price, the stock market has tanked and business has certainly been curtailed. Add to that, low returns for cash invested and you have a complete turn around in consumer attitudes.
This can be reflected in this months consumer debt figures released by the Federal Reserve http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G19/Current/ While the government is busy trying to pump up the economy by issuing huge amounts of public debt, the American consumer is deleveraging as fast as possible. Consumer debt has dropped three out of the last four quarters and for this quarter revolving debt dropped on an annualized rate by a whopping 9.7%.
Revolving debt is dropping because of analysis by the consumer. The simplest is to take a look at what yield you are getting on your savings account and what you are paying for non tax deductible interest on your credit card. If you are getting 2% yield and are in a 28% tax bracket, after state and federal taxes your net yield is about 1.4%. If you are paying between 9 and 15% on your credit card, it simply makes no sense to carry any kind of a balance on your card.
Well that's great but what if you don't have a savings account at the moment? The most tax efficient way to reduce your leverage is to cut up your card and refinance your home ( if you have equity) to both a lower rate as well as shifting that revolving debt into either a home equity loan or a first mortgage. The numbers are much more attractive. Your 9% card interest now costs some where in the 4.5% to 5.5% range and the interest is deductible. Again if your in a 28% tax bracket, a 5.5% cost of money now becomes somewhere near 3.7% after state and federal deductions.
This is all well and good if you have options such as money in the bank and equity in your home. The answer of course for all of us and the country in general is to stop spending money we don't have. Yes, it may slow the recovery and a new national attitude toward debt might mean slower economic growth off into the future.
That growth however would be real growth, not the illusion of a pumped up economy roaring along built on the false foundation of borrowed money. The reason we are in the economic straits we are today is excessive debt in almost all segments of our economy, consumers, businesses, non profits, municipalities, and state and federal governments have all been on a spending spree which has resulted in the entire nation having some sort of a mortgage.
Perhaps the current strategy of pumping more borrowed government money into the system is the right one to revive the U.S. and world economies, however when we get things straightened out a bit, the nation and indeed even each of us as individuals has to address the idea of using enormous debt as the foundation of a sound personal and national economy. It simply will not work over the long haul.
In Ben Franklin's book, The Way to Wealth, he says this about debt, "when you run in debt, you give another power over your liberty." The Chinese currently own over a trillion dollars in our government bonds, is that a good thing?
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Selectmen News 4/13/09
The selectmen met for the first time since the annual election on Monday night. The first order of business was reorganization and by identical 5 to 0 votes, the board chose Ralph Patuto as chairman and Walter Zenkin as vice chairman.
It was a busy meeting as the board dealt with a number of agenda items.
Town administrator Robert Mercier presented the board with a capital spending plan that covered each of the department and building needs projected over a ten year period. The total of that capital wish list would reach 100 million dollars if every project was implemented.
Mr. Mercier also announced that Burlington’s pension costs for this fiscal year were going to show a less than 1% increase to $6,113,755, however he cautioned that next year would reflect the current market turmoil.
The B-line bus service was the subject of much debate as the service has been cut down to 2 buses during this fiscal year. The cut became necessary when fuel costs ate up a sizable portion of the appropriation. The recommended amount this year was 166 thousand dollars to fund the new schedule for two buses however after much discussion regarding adding back the third bus, selectmen Gianino amended the motion back to last years appropriation of 216 thousand dollars to present to town meeting. Since the estimates for this years service seemed to be based on $4.80 per gallon fuel cost, whether or not a lower cost would will add back a third bus will be determined later.
Police Chief Hart was before the board for a public hearing speaking about a second alcohol violation by the Ginger Pad restaurant. The chief reported that the enforcement program includes two under age people working with the department who attempt to buy alcohol. On March 12 the 18 year old male entered the restaurant and ordered a beer and was served with out being carded.
Manager Michael Halciotis said the server admitted the violation when officers identified the buyer. Chairman Patuto explained his displeasure over the incident in particular that the establishment had two violations in such a short period of time since opening. The management of the firm said that the server had been terminated immediately and that they were ashamed and embarrassed by the incident. Selectman Gianino pointed out that termination of the employee may not always be the best solution particularly in this type of an economy. Perhaps management should bear some of the responsibility as well.
The board imposed a three day license suspension commencing next Monday.
Next up was a long list of warrant articles presented by Mr. Mercier that included a number of multi year programs that are be proposed for completion this year.
Fifty one thousand was approved for the second year of the police radio program, 20 thousand dollars for the semi annual mandated leak detection program and 60k for the sidewalk along the Bedford street side of the town common
Self funded articles included the cemetery road work funded from the sale of graves account, 20k for odor control from sewer enterprise, and parking lot repaving at the Ice Palace from the Ice Palace enterprise fund. Two large equipment purchases were approved, a new ambulance for the fire department at $216,000 and a new street sweeper for DPW at $166,000, replacing the current 15 year old model..
The 1.5 million dollar bonded appropriation to complete the water meter automation program sparked a great deal of discussion. DPW superintendent John Sanchez explained that the town cannot account for 20% of the 1.2 billion gallons that it pumps and that the new system would completely automate the meter reading system and replace antiquated meters. A 10% loss of production in a system is considered normal. Mr. Sanchez explained that at approximately $4000 per 1 million gallons, nearly 400,000 could be recovered annually from the program resulting in a 9 year payback.
The meters would be read electronically from DPW headquarters and would eliminate the need for manual reading. Chairman Patuto and selectman Gianino questioned whether or not the program might be delayed so that the 1.5 million in bonding authorization might be used elsewhere. Selectwoman Rollins and Mr. Mercier explained the need to complete the appropriation this year so the program could begin to be implemented in July. After much discussion the article was approved.
All of these recommendations will now go on to the Ways and Means committee for their consideration and recommendation to the annual town meeting.
It was a busy meeting as the board dealt with a number of agenda items.
Town administrator Robert Mercier presented the board with a capital spending plan that covered each of the department and building needs projected over a ten year period. The total of that capital wish list would reach 100 million dollars if every project was implemented.
Mr. Mercier also announced that Burlington’s pension costs for this fiscal year were going to show a less than 1% increase to $6,113,755, however he cautioned that next year would reflect the current market turmoil.
The B-line bus service was the subject of much debate as the service has been cut down to 2 buses during this fiscal year. The cut became necessary when fuel costs ate up a sizable portion of the appropriation. The recommended amount this year was 166 thousand dollars to fund the new schedule for two buses however after much discussion regarding adding back the third bus, selectmen Gianino amended the motion back to last years appropriation of 216 thousand dollars to present to town meeting. Since the estimates for this years service seemed to be based on $4.80 per gallon fuel cost, whether or not a lower cost would will add back a third bus will be determined later.
Police Chief Hart was before the board for a public hearing speaking about a second alcohol violation by the Ginger Pad restaurant. The chief reported that the enforcement program includes two under age people working with the department who attempt to buy alcohol. On March 12 the 18 year old male entered the restaurant and ordered a beer and was served with out being carded.
Manager Michael Halciotis said the server admitted the violation when officers identified the buyer. Chairman Patuto explained his displeasure over the incident in particular that the establishment had two violations in such a short period of time since opening. The management of the firm said that the server had been terminated immediately and that they were ashamed and embarrassed by the incident. Selectman Gianino pointed out that termination of the employee may not always be the best solution particularly in this type of an economy. Perhaps management should bear some of the responsibility as well.
The board imposed a three day license suspension commencing next Monday.
Next up was a long list of warrant articles presented by Mr. Mercier that included a number of multi year programs that are be proposed for completion this year.
Fifty one thousand was approved for the second year of the police radio program, 20 thousand dollars for the semi annual mandated leak detection program and 60k for the sidewalk along the Bedford street side of the town common
Self funded articles included the cemetery road work funded from the sale of graves account, 20k for odor control from sewer enterprise, and parking lot repaving at the Ice Palace from the Ice Palace enterprise fund. Two large equipment purchases were approved, a new ambulance for the fire department at $216,000 and a new street sweeper for DPW at $166,000, replacing the current 15 year old model..
The 1.5 million dollar bonded appropriation to complete the water meter automation program sparked a great deal of discussion. DPW superintendent John Sanchez explained that the town cannot account for 20% of the 1.2 billion gallons that it pumps and that the new system would completely automate the meter reading system and replace antiquated meters. A 10% loss of production in a system is considered normal. Mr. Sanchez explained that at approximately $4000 per 1 million gallons, nearly 400,000 could be recovered annually from the program resulting in a 9 year payback.
The meters would be read electronically from DPW headquarters and would eliminate the need for manual reading. Chairman Patuto and selectman Gianino questioned whether or not the program might be delayed so that the 1.5 million in bonding authorization might be used elsewhere. Selectwoman Rollins and Mr. Mercier explained the need to complete the appropriation this year so the program could begin to be implemented in July. After much discussion the article was approved.
All of these recommendations will now go on to the Ways and Means committee for their consideration and recommendation to the annual town meeting.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Threats and Intimidation
Fascist thugs try to break union. That might be a headline you would see about another American corporation in the the New York Times. You won't see that headline because it is the Times itself that is demonstrating those tactics in its dealing with its wholly owned subsidiary, the Boston Globe.
The Globe as currently constituted is rapidly failing in its business and there isn't much the ownership of the Times can do about it. It is reported that the paper lost fifty million last year and is on target to lose another 85 million dollars this year. With ads and subscriptions continuing to fall and a bottom in the industry no where is sight how will 20 million dollars in forced union concessions stop the bleeding?
The Times itself is in danger for a variety of reasons including a huge debt load, a real estate project that was ill advised, dramatic changes in the industry and finally entrenched genetic leadership that is incompetent. There can be no doubt that given a choice, the Times will opt for self preservation so you know the Globe would be sacrificed first.
In an age when a 2 or 3% cut in municipal or state budgets are referred to as Draconian or cutting to the bone, the 25% reductions sought at the Globe are indeed drastic. Mary White, who leads Teamsters Local 1 which represents the 250 mailers said the Times Co. "is seeking a 25 percent wage cut, the virtual elimination of its contributions to their health care plan, and an end to company contributions to pensions."
This is the fourth or fifth year in which layoffs and concessions have been on the table at the Globe and the numbers suggest it is not over. If we are nearing the end game for the paper as it is currently constituted then what strategies can be put in place to save the paper as an institution in Boston?
Getting rid of New York in the mix would be the first order of business but short of finding an outside buyer with really deep pockets what can be done? Bankruptcy is an option since it has been reported that the Globe is a 100% owned subsidiary of the Times Corp. and therefore could go into bankruptcy without dragging in the parent company.
If that does happen it would bring up a number of interesting possibilities for potential Boston owners or indeed in my view the most viable option which is an employee purchase of the Globe. The employee unions have both the most to lose as well as the most influence over controlling costs at the paper. There is certainly a break even point somewhere in the mix that would enable the paper to go on while protecting as many union jobs as possible.
What that point is and how much sacrifice the unions would have to make remains to be seen but it would seem to be a better alternative than watching the paper and its jobs rapidly disappear. An employee buyout would save the most jobs and bring the most equity to the employees if the ship could ultimately be righted. The benefit to the readers of course would be to clean out the Times influence and place the paper in the hands of local stakeholders instead of New York based ideological nitwits.
The Globe as currently constituted is rapidly failing in its business and there isn't much the ownership of the Times can do about it. It is reported that the paper lost fifty million last year and is on target to lose another 85 million dollars this year. With ads and subscriptions continuing to fall and a bottom in the industry no where is sight how will 20 million dollars in forced union concessions stop the bleeding?
The Times itself is in danger for a variety of reasons including a huge debt load, a real estate project that was ill advised, dramatic changes in the industry and finally entrenched genetic leadership that is incompetent. There can be no doubt that given a choice, the Times will opt for self preservation so you know the Globe would be sacrificed first.
In an age when a 2 or 3% cut in municipal or state budgets are referred to as Draconian or cutting to the bone, the 25% reductions sought at the Globe are indeed drastic. Mary White, who leads Teamsters Local 1 which represents the 250 mailers said the Times Co. "is seeking a 25 percent wage cut, the virtual elimination of its contributions to their health care plan, and an end to company contributions to pensions."
This is the fourth or fifth year in which layoffs and concessions have been on the table at the Globe and the numbers suggest it is not over. If we are nearing the end game for the paper as it is currently constituted then what strategies can be put in place to save the paper as an institution in Boston?
Getting rid of New York in the mix would be the first order of business but short of finding an outside buyer with really deep pockets what can be done? Bankruptcy is an option since it has been reported that the Globe is a 100% owned subsidiary of the Times Corp. and therefore could go into bankruptcy without dragging in the parent company.
If that does happen it would bring up a number of interesting possibilities for potential Boston owners or indeed in my view the most viable option which is an employee purchase of the Globe. The employee unions have both the most to lose as well as the most influence over controlling costs at the paper. There is certainly a break even point somewhere in the mix that would enable the paper to go on while protecting as many union jobs as possible.
What that point is and how much sacrifice the unions would have to make remains to be seen but it would seem to be a better alternative than watching the paper and its jobs rapidly disappear. An employee buyout would save the most jobs and bring the most equity to the employees if the ship could ultimately be righted. The benefit to the readers of course would be to clean out the Times influence and place the paper in the hands of local stakeholders instead of New York based ideological nitwits.
Sunday, April 05, 2009
These Times They are a Changin
The results are in in the annual town election and though not especially shocking in terms of who the winners are it does bring about an unusual result. Year after year we have winners and losers in the selectmen race but infrequently does the tally result in a changing of the leadership on the board. That has happened this year and in a substantial way.
The former minority is now the new majority with incumbent Ralph Patuto and newcomer Dan Ditucci winning the seats and defeating incumbent Al Fay. This will almost certainly result in Ralph being referred to in the near future as Mr. Chairman.
I was not particularly surprised by the results but was shocked by the margins of victory. Patuto and Ditucci bested McKelvey and Fay by 500 plus vote margins. In a vote for 2 race with 3599 people turning out a margin of victory that large is surprising. After the results are in it is much easier to speculate on the reasons why they shook out the way they did.
Fay had a couple of issues that weighed against him. He had held both a planning board seat and a selectmen's seat and a change in the law required him to give up one of those seats this year. Three years ago he topped the ticket in his selectman's seat after a 24% tax increase and while holding both seats so what happened during the intervening three years?
Fay's support along with the majority of the board on the ICE (U.S.Immigration and Customs Enforcement) issue may have had a lingering effect as perhaps did the Landlocked Land issue. The town has approved a number of major developments that have not really gotten off the ground nor has the impact been fully felt. The idea of considering a huge new development on the LandLocked was viewed by many as simply nonsense. Not coming out as forcefully against the Patriot Partners development plan as did others may have been a factor.
The board's refusal to take any kind of a position against Boston on the Cummings property might have also hurt the majority.Perhaps however it was not those things but that it was simply a superior campaigning effort by Ditucci/Patuto. Initially it was thought to be a major mistake when Dittucci entered the race after former selectmen McKelvey announced he was also running. Conventional wisdom said that a 2 person campaign is frequently a mistake and that a Ditucci/Patuto alliance might damage Patuto.
That line of thinking is obviously not born out because both Patuto and Ditucci garnered nearly the same tally and Patuto topped the ticket. Ditucci ran a very hard and nearly successful campaign last year running against Gary Gianino in the single seat election. It is almost unheard of to have the incumbent defeated in that seat yet Ditucci nearly did the impossible failing by a mere twenty something votes. It is clear from this year's results that both Ralph and Dan benefited from the other's second votes.
Ditucci had the same team this year headed by Cindi Gilpin and they proved last year's results were no fluke. Ditucci was out of the gate quick and continued to build on last year's momentum. It was no secret that Dan and Ralph were aligned nor was it a secret that they both had supported Walter Zenkin when he ran.
So the old majority is the new minority and both will find out different things. It is much easier to be in the minority because you aren't really responsible for much. The shoe is on the other foot now for the new majority. They will be confronted with the same issues but now will be expected to produce some results.
This is a very challenging budget year as well as some residual issues remain unresolved. How will the majority deal with a lingering police contract issue? Will they hold the line on demands for drug and alcohol testing and lower the proposed raises? Will they review applicants for town counsel? Will they move forward on a new sewer line and address the surcharging issue? Will they propose a referendum on the Landlocked Land or simply take a stand that it is not for sale? Will they demand accountability from Boston as trustee on the Cummings property? Will the new trash contract transition smoothly? Are we going to recruit from outside for a new police and fire chief? Are we going to have a public safety superintendent? Will they make changes of members at the Board of Appeals or crack down on some of these variances? Will more and more liquor licenses be issued? Will they find a new site for the town barn or cemetery space?
Progress on these things will determine the new hold on power. Like any after election analysis, focus is already being put on next year. Both incumbents are viewed as being vulnerable for different reasons. Rollins has been very active on issues and produced results that have been met with varying approval in the community. Zenkin on the other hand has been relatively silent without much initiative. Roles will switch this year and both will be looking for ways to properly position themselves for next year.
A lot can happen in a year and the new majority will only have to hold serve next year to hold the mandate.Regardless of the individuals involved the town as a whole is a winner when we have a race of this kind. Good solid people came out to run for the top elected office in the town. They ran clean, well informed races and motivated new people to be engaged in the process.
In a couple of days both the disappointment of defeat and the elation of campaign victory will fade and the day to day business of running a 92 million dollar a year municipal corporation will begin all over again. Whatever the political alignment, it does not detract from the fact that five of them are running the show and it is our best interest that they work together to get results.
Being a politician is a two part process, you have to run to win and when you win the difficult part begins as you now actually have to serve in the position and pleasing everyone all the time is no easy task.
The former minority is now the new majority with incumbent Ralph Patuto and newcomer Dan Ditucci winning the seats and defeating incumbent Al Fay. This will almost certainly result in Ralph being referred to in the near future as Mr. Chairman.
I was not particularly surprised by the results but was shocked by the margins of victory. Patuto and Ditucci bested McKelvey and Fay by 500 plus vote margins. In a vote for 2 race with 3599 people turning out a margin of victory that large is surprising. After the results are in it is much easier to speculate on the reasons why they shook out the way they did.
Fay had a couple of issues that weighed against him. He had held both a planning board seat and a selectmen's seat and a change in the law required him to give up one of those seats this year. Three years ago he topped the ticket in his selectman's seat after a 24% tax increase and while holding both seats so what happened during the intervening three years?
Fay's support along with the majority of the board on the ICE (U.S.Immigration and Customs Enforcement) issue may have had a lingering effect as perhaps did the Landlocked Land issue. The town has approved a number of major developments that have not really gotten off the ground nor has the impact been fully felt. The idea of considering a huge new development on the LandLocked was viewed by many as simply nonsense. Not coming out as forcefully against the Patriot Partners development plan as did others may have been a factor.
The board's refusal to take any kind of a position against Boston on the Cummings property might have also hurt the majority.Perhaps however it was not those things but that it was simply a superior campaigning effort by Ditucci/Patuto. Initially it was thought to be a major mistake when Dittucci entered the race after former selectmen McKelvey announced he was also running. Conventional wisdom said that a 2 person campaign is frequently a mistake and that a Ditucci/Patuto alliance might damage Patuto.
That line of thinking is obviously not born out because both Patuto and Ditucci garnered nearly the same tally and Patuto topped the ticket. Ditucci ran a very hard and nearly successful campaign last year running against Gary Gianino in the single seat election. It is almost unheard of to have the incumbent defeated in that seat yet Ditucci nearly did the impossible failing by a mere twenty something votes. It is clear from this year's results that both Ralph and Dan benefited from the other's second votes.
Ditucci had the same team this year headed by Cindi Gilpin and they proved last year's results were no fluke. Ditucci was out of the gate quick and continued to build on last year's momentum. It was no secret that Dan and Ralph were aligned nor was it a secret that they both had supported Walter Zenkin when he ran.
So the old majority is the new minority and both will find out different things. It is much easier to be in the minority because you aren't really responsible for much. The shoe is on the other foot now for the new majority. They will be confronted with the same issues but now will be expected to produce some results.
This is a very challenging budget year as well as some residual issues remain unresolved. How will the majority deal with a lingering police contract issue? Will they hold the line on demands for drug and alcohol testing and lower the proposed raises? Will they review applicants for town counsel? Will they move forward on a new sewer line and address the surcharging issue? Will they propose a referendum on the Landlocked Land or simply take a stand that it is not for sale? Will they demand accountability from Boston as trustee on the Cummings property? Will the new trash contract transition smoothly? Are we going to recruit from outside for a new police and fire chief? Are we going to have a public safety superintendent? Will they make changes of members at the Board of Appeals or crack down on some of these variances? Will more and more liquor licenses be issued? Will they find a new site for the town barn or cemetery space?
Progress on these things will determine the new hold on power. Like any after election analysis, focus is already being put on next year. Both incumbents are viewed as being vulnerable for different reasons. Rollins has been very active on issues and produced results that have been met with varying approval in the community. Zenkin on the other hand has been relatively silent without much initiative. Roles will switch this year and both will be looking for ways to properly position themselves for next year.
A lot can happen in a year and the new majority will only have to hold serve next year to hold the mandate.Regardless of the individuals involved the town as a whole is a winner when we have a race of this kind. Good solid people came out to run for the top elected office in the town. They ran clean, well informed races and motivated new people to be engaged in the process.
In a couple of days both the disappointment of defeat and the elation of campaign victory will fade and the day to day business of running a 92 million dollar a year municipal corporation will begin all over again. Whatever the political alignment, it does not detract from the fact that five of them are running the show and it is our best interest that they work together to get results.
Being a politician is a two part process, you have to run to win and when you win the difficult part begins as you now actually have to serve in the position and pleasing everyone all the time is no easy task.
Friday, April 03, 2009
Blow it up on the Launch Pad
North Korea’s attempt to launch a multi stage ballistic missile should be met with more than bombastic sound and fury from the West. Speaking sharply to the little dictator, Kim Jong Il is unlikely to deter him from seeking a delivery system for his reported four or five nukes in his stockpile.
North Korea’s modus operandi is becoming increasingly familiar. Be loud and threatening and provocative and the milk toast West led by the United States will come up with a variety of good reasons why we should pay him off with bribes. Based on his previous successes why not simply raise the stakes and get bigger bribes?
The bigger the threat he becomes then the bigger his payoff will be. The Taepodong-2 missile is what is being loaded with fuel on the launching pad under the guise of a launch of a communications satellite. The natural question you would ask is why the government of North Korea would be investing in missile technology to launch satellites when it is reported that the country is on the verge of another famine?
The answer of course is that what they are developing is a multi stage ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States. The Obama administration has tried to deter North Korea by threatening security council action against them. Perhaps we have even raised our voice. The American president said the U.S. will "take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that it can't threaten the safety and security of other countries with impunity."
Well last time we looked both the Russians and Chinese have vetoes at the UN Security Council and therefore any punitive action that would deter the North is unlikely. We can also look at any number of other world hot spots and come to the conclusion that the UN is a waste of good New York real estate.
The North Koreans can and will threaten stability in the region as long as they are rewarded for their juvenile behavior. Until they are slapped solidly they will use a strategy that works. It is inevitable that an action will have to be taken against them because the long term prospects are only of continued escalation.
How will the West react when the North's missile tests show increasing payload and range capability? Will the Japanese stand idly by while they not only have nukes but also a delivery system that works? Will the Japanese develop a nuclear deterrent on their own? What will happen when the North announces they are loading a nuke on a missile to keep it ready as a deterrent against American aggression? After all, the United States has many missiles ready to fire why can't the North Koreans.
The strategy so far has worked quite well for the North. They have stalled and negotiated little bits and pieces all the while advancing their technology. President Clinton thought he had a deal to bribe them into compliance with food and energy until they developed the bomb right under his nose. Bush thought he had a deal with the 6 nation talks but the North has reneged on each condition of that deal.
Now they have a bigger and better missile on the launch pad and they are threatening war and a "thunderbolt of retaliation" if anyone dares to shoot the missile down. Despite the fact that any payload will pass directly over Japanese territory, the North Koreans say this about any action by the Japanese. They will respond by "mercilessly dealing deadly blows," not only at Japan's anti-missile facilities but at "other major targets" as well. They would consider it an act of war.
The problem here is that the West continues to create its own problem. By strengthening Kim through economic bribery he stays in power still longer and escalates his demands further. By getting all excited and talking at the UN and pleading with the Chinese to intervene we only bring more gravity and validate Kim's world stage presence.
It is time to call this bluff and simply destroy his rocket where it stands. In a confrontation with words Kim gains more prestige. In a direct military confrontation with the West he is exposed as a blustering fraud. When a policy is proven to be ineffective year after year then it makes sense to try something new.
North Korea’s modus operandi is becoming increasingly familiar. Be loud and threatening and provocative and the milk toast West led by the United States will come up with a variety of good reasons why we should pay him off with bribes. Based on his previous successes why not simply raise the stakes and get bigger bribes?
The bigger the threat he becomes then the bigger his payoff will be. The Taepodong-2 missile is what is being loaded with fuel on the launching pad under the guise of a launch of a communications satellite. The natural question you would ask is why the government of North Korea would be investing in missile technology to launch satellites when it is reported that the country is on the verge of another famine?
The answer of course is that what they are developing is a multi stage ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States. The Obama administration has tried to deter North Korea by threatening security council action against them. Perhaps we have even raised our voice. The American president said the U.S. will "take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that it can't threaten the safety and security of other countries with impunity."
Well last time we looked both the Russians and Chinese have vetoes at the UN Security Council and therefore any punitive action that would deter the North is unlikely. We can also look at any number of other world hot spots and come to the conclusion that the UN is a waste of good New York real estate.
The North Koreans can and will threaten stability in the region as long as they are rewarded for their juvenile behavior. Until they are slapped solidly they will use a strategy that works. It is inevitable that an action will have to be taken against them because the long term prospects are only of continued escalation.
How will the West react when the North's missile tests show increasing payload and range capability? Will the Japanese stand idly by while they not only have nukes but also a delivery system that works? Will the Japanese develop a nuclear deterrent on their own? What will happen when the North announces they are loading a nuke on a missile to keep it ready as a deterrent against American aggression? After all, the United States has many missiles ready to fire why can't the North Koreans.
The strategy so far has worked quite well for the North. They have stalled and negotiated little bits and pieces all the while advancing their technology. President Clinton thought he had a deal to bribe them into compliance with food and energy until they developed the bomb right under his nose. Bush thought he had a deal with the 6 nation talks but the North has reneged on each condition of that deal.
Now they have a bigger and better missile on the launch pad and they are threatening war and a "thunderbolt of retaliation" if anyone dares to shoot the missile down. Despite the fact that any payload will pass directly over Japanese territory, the North Koreans say this about any action by the Japanese. They will respond by "mercilessly dealing deadly blows," not only at Japan's anti-missile facilities but at "other major targets" as well. They would consider it an act of war.
The problem here is that the West continues to create its own problem. By strengthening Kim through economic bribery he stays in power still longer and escalates his demands further. By getting all excited and talking at the UN and pleading with the Chinese to intervene we only bring more gravity and validate Kim's world stage presence.
It is time to call this bluff and simply destroy his rocket where it stands. In a confrontation with words Kim gains more prestige. In a direct military confrontation with the West he is exposed as a blustering fraud. When a policy is proven to be ineffective year after year then it makes sense to try something new.
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Red Sox to win 2009 World Series
So? You expected an insufferable Boston homer and Yankee hater to predict something else? Just to burnish my reputation for consistency, I was also predicting the Sox would win when Don Buddin and Pumpsie Green were the Sox middle infielders.
We are going to win it all this year for one simple reason, pitching. The Sox are deep in starting pitching and maybe even deeper when it comes to the bullpen. They are deep with out counting a couple of scrap heap pick ups that Theo has made for short money. It is hard to use the term scrap heap when talking about John Smoltz, a sure fire Hall of Fame inductee at some time in the future but still he is 42 years old and how much gas can he have left? Brad Penney is the other pick up and although a friend of mine came back from spring training saying he looks good, we can't put our hopes on sore shoulders.
Discounting any possibility of hope from the two veterans we can still look up and down the pitching staff from the majors to the minors and still find lots of depth. Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard will all start in the minors just waiting for an opportunity should any of the starting five falter. In addition, Our best young pitcher from last year Justin Masterson will start in the bull pen, probably in long relief but would be available to move in the rotation should it be necessary..
The starting five of Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield and Penney offers a nice blend of horses who can throw deep into games. While the bullpen has been beefed up with Masterson, and the addition of former closer Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez. Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez will provide lefty support. Manny Delcarmen who was a cog in last years pen will now be relied on for less of a load. Jonathan Papelbon continues as one of the top two or three closers in baseball.
The supporting cast on the field and in the batting order has not changed much and even with the departure of Manny (the cancer)Ramirez, this club will be near the top of the majors in run production. The only weak spot would seem to be at the bottom of the order with Varitek and Lugo but for the moment Lugo will be replaced with the heavier hitting Jed Lowrie.
The rest of the order of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Bay, Drew, and Lowell will be banging balls around Fenway all year long. The Yankees may have loaded up on some pitching but they are still very long in the tooth in the infield, outfield and at catcher. It is questionable whether or not they can remain healthy all season at some of the key positions. It also remains to be seen if Sabathia and Texeira can play on the big stage. In addition, it would seem hard to believe that a 300 plus pound Sabathia and a very brittle Burnett can be carrying the empire in October.
So you can take my prediction to the bank with one caveat, there is a reason why the games still have to be played.
We are going to win it all this year for one simple reason, pitching. The Sox are deep in starting pitching and maybe even deeper when it comes to the bullpen. They are deep with out counting a couple of scrap heap pick ups that Theo has made for short money. It is hard to use the term scrap heap when talking about John Smoltz, a sure fire Hall of Fame inductee at some time in the future but still he is 42 years old and how much gas can he have left? Brad Penney is the other pick up and although a friend of mine came back from spring training saying he looks good, we can't put our hopes on sore shoulders.
Discounting any possibility of hope from the two veterans we can still look up and down the pitching staff from the majors to the minors and still find lots of depth. Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden and Daniel Bard will all start in the minors just waiting for an opportunity should any of the starting five falter. In addition, Our best young pitcher from last year Justin Masterson will start in the bull pen, probably in long relief but would be available to move in the rotation should it be necessary..
The starting five of Beckett, Lester, Matsuzaka, Wakefield and Penney offers a nice blend of horses who can throw deep into games. While the bullpen has been beefed up with Masterson, and the addition of former closer Takashi Saito and Ramon Ramirez. Hideki Okajima and Javier Lopez will provide lefty support. Manny Delcarmen who was a cog in last years pen will now be relied on for less of a load. Jonathan Papelbon continues as one of the top two or three closers in baseball.
The supporting cast on the field and in the batting order has not changed much and even with the departure of Manny (the cancer)Ramirez, this club will be near the top of the majors in run production. The only weak spot would seem to be at the bottom of the order with Varitek and Lugo but for the moment Lugo will be replaced with the heavier hitting Jed Lowrie.
The rest of the order of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Ortiz, Bay, Drew, and Lowell will be banging balls around Fenway all year long. The Yankees may have loaded up on some pitching but they are still very long in the tooth in the infield, outfield and at catcher. It is questionable whether or not they can remain healthy all season at some of the key positions. It also remains to be seen if Sabathia and Texeira can play on the big stage. In addition, it would seem hard to believe that a 300 plus pound Sabathia and a very brittle Burnett can be carrying the empire in October.
So you can take my prediction to the bank with one caveat, there is a reason why the games still have to be played.
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