Who Knows Where the Time Goes

Who Knows Where the Time Goes was written by Sandy Denny 25 or so years ago. She was most prominently known as the lead singer for the British group Fairport Convention. It is a wonderful song and has been covered by some of the most accomplished female voices. Judy Collins, Mary Black, Eva Cassidy, Nina Simone and Susan Cowsill are a few that have sung haunting and beautiful renditions.

Her title would be a nice theme for a year gone by retrospective but I guess a better one for me would be "what the Hell happened to 2007?" Is it just my imagination or is a week or a month a shorter period of time as we get older? I feel like I was just getting up from the Thanksgiving table when it was time to sit down for Christmas dinner.

Before looking forward it might be worthwhile to look back on some of my prognostications from last year. A couple I hit on the nose and a couple I missed by a mile. The misses are as follows;

Oil has not fallen in price and in fact has continued to climb. Cuba did not fall primarily because I anticipated Fidel would be dead by now but the stubborn old codger is still hanging in there. John Kerry did not campaign for the presidency every day of 2007. His early gaffes took him out much earlier than I expected.

Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr was not assassinated. Unfortunately, Benazir Bhutto was. Ford Motor Company did not make a big comeback but they seemed to have stemmed the bleeding for the moment.

Neither the Patriots nor the Chargers won the NFL title and Scooter Libby was not exonerated but rather commuted instead. However, the San Antonio Spurs did win the NBA title.

On the plus side of the ledger I had a few wins. I resolved to lose ten pounds, but as I predicted I didn't. Saddam was hanged and nobody really cared. There was more weeping and moaning and gnashing of teeth over Darfur but nothing was done.

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid accomplished virtually nothing on major legislative issues facing the country. The new Democratic majority was helpless in the face of a lame duck president.

The New York Times did announce that the Iraqi war was un-winnable and called for complete withdrawal. The Times stock price continued to fall ending the year down over 61% from its price five years ago. In a complete turn about and an apparent acknowledgement of its continued leftist bias, the Times recently added noted neo con William Kristol to its op-ed roster, it won't help the declining Times franchise. Look for more job cuts and asset sales in the near future.

In more of a wishful thinking prediction I chose the Sox to win the World Series and as our ancestors rolled over in their graves the boys did win.

On the economic front I had predicted very dire consequences in the housing market but did not expect the degree in which it affected Wall Street. Chuck Prince of Citigroup, Stan O'Neal of Merrill Lynch and other notables were victims of the sub prime crisis. Victims if you consider tens of millions in severance pay as being victimized.

So what is in store for 2008?

1. I am afraid that a recession is in the future for the year. The Fed just seems to be continually behind the curve. Long treasury yields are low and may go lower, why isn't the Fed cutting faster?

2. Oil prices will fall this year! I guess my theme here is that if you predict it enough times it will come to pass. An economic slowdown may produce such a result but so to may consumer changes which are happening rapidly.

3. Troop reductions will begin in Iraq. General Patreus seems to have a handle on the situation and is producing results in terms of domestic tranquility. More importantly, the Iraqis themselves seem to be rejecting the idea of blowing themselves up.

4. The Patriots, the Red Sox (again) and the Celtics will all win championships.I know it sounds ridiculous but I have admitted to being an insufferable homer. So with Patriots undefeated at 16 and 0 and the Celtics having the best record in the NBA and the Red Sox perhaps signing Johan Santana, it may not be so far fetched.

5. Mitt Romney and John McCain or John McCain and Mitt Romney narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson for the respective tickets. This prediction might change if there is a brokered convention and the Democrats come up with a qualified candidate that can win. I doubt Al Gore would come back but he would seem to be the best alternative.

6. Legalized gambling will not be approved in Massachusetts. The decriminalizing of marijuana will occur after it passes on the ballot question and the elimination of the income tax will be narrowly defeated.

7. Global warming will lose some of its cachet in Hollywood.

8. Gold prices will fall from the current levels however quite slowly as will the dollar's descent begin to level off and stabilize.

9. Pakistan will have elections and there will be attacks on militants in the tribal lands. Osama Bin Laden and Amyn Al Swhahiri will be caught or killed.

10. Whitey Bulger will not be caught.

Happy New Year!

Clinton inevitablility?

I have been watching the Democratic presidential race with increasing interest over the last few months. Since the early stages of the campaign I have thought that the possibility of the Democrats regaining the white house and increasing their numbers in the house and senate would be in danger if the presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton actually won the nomination.

I am convinced now more than ever that the Democratic nominee should be anybody but Hillary. The facts are simple, Mrs. Clinton is not qualified in anyway to be the POTUS. She does not have any verifiable experience in military, economic or foreign affairs. Her national service as a senator is more of a detriment to her than it is a benefit. Senators don't win the presidency.

Democrats all over the country seem to be waking up to the possible damage to the party that a Clinton nomination would bring. Her once insurmountable poll leads are shrinking fast and she can't seem to stem the tide. The clear indication of her weakness is that a candidate (Obama) with even less credentials than she has is now threatening to surpass her in the New Hampshire primary.

There is one and only one Democratic candidate that will rally Republicans all over this country. They will forget their differences on all major issues and they will unite to prevent the return of the Clinton's to the white house. A Clinton candidacy will prevent a triumphant return of the Democrats to power.

Mrs. Clinton's negative poll numbers are higher than any candidate since the numbers have been recorded. You don't need poll numbers to measure the visceral negative reaction in non party regular circles to her candidacy. Even here in Massachusetts, the bluest of blue states, ask some of your friends who are on the periphery of the political arena and see what reactions you get. In my circle, the most apolitical of friends are suddenly political activists when I bring up the subject of a possible President Hillary Clinton.

It would be a difficult run on her own but Mrs. Clinton is saddled with a substantial liability. Bill just can't seem to shut up. Many people are willing to forget her humiliation at his hands but not if it continues on a daily basis on the campaign trail. His most recent gaffe regarding his denial of his support of the Iraqi War is just one example of the many more that are likely to come.

If he continues to be a major contributor, then certain Clintonian missteps will finally make prominent appearances in the mainstream press in connection with Mrs. Clinton's candidacy. The cannon fodder available to Republicans can be viewed here http://prorev.com/legacy.htm What is interesting is that this list has been compiled by the Progressive Review, a left wing alternative publication, certainly not part of the "vast right wing conspiracy."

One obvious question for Mrs. Clinton would be regarding her involvement in the Rich and other pardons. If her day to day contributions to the Bill Clinton presidency were significant then she certainly must have been involved in the pardons.

The Democratic euphoria already is showing signs of strain. The Pelosi and Reid leadership in the house and senate has provided Democrats with a legislative year of no consequence. The Iraq situation continues to improve which embarrasses the surrender wing of the party. The once irreparably wounded lame duck president continues to thwart the Democrats at every turn. The last thing we need is a devastating loss in this presidential season. A losing presidential candidate has very short coat tails.

The Land Locked Land

Every now and then an indignant statement is made about how much the landlocked land cost the town and how foolish the town was in taking the property.

Since I was the primary proponent of the taking I would respond now the same way I have over the past 20 years by saying that the taking made sense then and it still makes sense now and given the same set of circumstances I believe the town and its voters would do the same thing today.

Let’s compare the land locked issue to two more popular items which I contend cost the town much more money than the land locked land and in comparison, the land is not an expense but rather an investment.

The Lahey Clinic expansion is far more costly to the town now and going forward than the landlocked land will ever be. By granting an expansion without getting a permanent and enforceable in lieu of tax agreement, the town committed financial incompetence. Not only did the town lose an opportunity for increased annual payments but they also failed to get any infrastructure improvements such as contributions to the forced sewer main, reconstruction of Mall Road or new water improvements (stand pipe). Additionally, the town received no contributions for these three items from Nordblom, Guitterez, Seven Springs or the Commons. Cost of these items will be between 10 and 20 million dollars.

The land swap is another example of questionable financial return. We gave away 14 acres of prime industrial space on Wheeler Road and in return we acquired a few residential parcels and a prime piece of property next to the Center School that we then virtually gave away for 300k to a developer. What we were left with is a termite ridden building falling apart before our very eyes with an estimated refurbishing cost of over 3 million dollars. The town is now paralyzed over what to do with the building.

Was the landlocked land a better deal? Well yes, primarily because we still own it and its current value is in excess of 50 million dollars. Its location is incomparable in the commonwealth, being situated at the junction of Route 95 and Route 3. What good is its value if we can‘t use it you ask? The answer of course is that it can be used when and if the town and state decides what it could be used for. The golf course proposal was defeated but there are other considerations.

Two potential uses right now that are at both ends of the spectrum are as follows.

1. Wind farm. A utility easement already exists into the property which makes access quite easy. It would be relatively simple process to strike a deal with NStar to place windmills on the property. The front part of the property which is at the junction of 95 and route 3 would be a perfect spot.

2. The other end of the spectrum could include a full build out for a casino and all the appurtenant structures necessary to support it. Would access by the state be granted for such a use? The casino scenario is unfolding at the state house right now. If you have been watching this issue then you know that location wise Burlington could offer the best and most accessible location in the state. If Middleboro could strike an enormous deal why couldn't Burlington?

Is that a likely possibility? I hope not.

Of course another potential use is to do nothing. Over the period of time since its acquisition the town has received and spent some where in the order of 1.3 billion dollars. The cost of the land is a very tiny fraction of those moneys.My basic point is that the taking of the landlocked land was a strategic priority at the time. The land was producing virtually no tax revenue (35k) and the land had long been a target of speculators and swindlers.

Even now, after all these years some of the pro tanto payments remain unclaimed because the owners of some of the 34 parcels were never known or found. The property had been the target of swindlers who would frequently come to the tax office to try to pay back taxes on certain parcels that had murky titles. They hoped by paying the taxes they could lay some foundation of claim of ownership of the properties.

Time will certainly tell the whole story regarding the wisdom of the land locked taking. What we do know for sure right now is this, the title is unified now under one owner and that owner is the Town of Burlington. The property itself is a pristine parcel which represents almost 5% of the town’s total land mass. At the very least it is a legacy that will be left to future inhabitants of Burlington.

Anatomy of a Scheme or is it a Swindle?

Now that we know for sure that it was the City of Boston who confiscated the Friends of Mary Cummings Park signs it automatically begs the question as to why? What harm could two signs bought and paid for by a bunch of do gooders do to the big city of Boston? Why does honoring Mrs. Cummings and by actually showing people where this beautiful park land is cause a problem?

Apparently the answers from the perpetrators are quite laughable. When posed the question one guy in Boston reportedly said "because its our land" and another said "we already posted signs, no trespassing!" Neither seems to be an appropriate response when you consider Boston was charged in Mrs. Cummings will "to hold and keep the same forever open as a public pleasure ground."

The real reasons for all of this can be found in a quite revealing 1996 strategy letter from Attorney Robert H. Hale of the Boston Law firm of Palmer and Dodge to Edward J. Collins Collector/Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer of the City of Boston. http://cummingspark.org/documents/20060725-mcp-bostontrustoffice-scannedfiles/1996-10-25-hale-letter.pdf Hale reportedly is still representing the city on this issue.

There are a number of items of interest in this letter beginning with the revelation that the City had the parcel appraised in 1988 by Meredith and Grew. That appraisal reported the value of the property at its highest and best use in excess of 25 million dollars. There is nothing like 25 million dollars or a pair of Sox tickets to get a politician's attention.

The resistance by the city to any use of the land for its intended purpose as a park can be explained in one paragraph. Mr Hale writes as follows;

"If we are successful in showing that Mrs. Cummings had a general charitable intent to benefit Boston, the probate court should allow a modification of the specific purpose of the trust under the doctrine of cy pres, but only if the original purpose has now become impossible, impracticable, or illegal. Thus, we must also demonstrate that the land is not suitable for a park because of its current condition and because of its distance from Boston. Note that the difficulty of maintaining a park outside the City limits may not be sufficient justification for selling the land without further evidence that the property has fallen into disrepair or is otherwise inappropriate for use as a public park. The absence of sufficient assets to support the park under the Cummings will or otherwise is also relevant. Based on our conversations to date, I understand that in fact the land is not suitable for park purposes and that we should be able to document that to the court."

That explains a number of things that have gone on since this memo was written. The City continues to loot the trust fund with foolish expenses so as to delete the assets Mrs. Cummings left for its upkeep. This also explains the no trespassing signs and the failure to spend any of that trust money on the park.

There are a couple of things that should be obvious to the court regarding Mrs. Cummings intent in the will. She knew the distance from Boston to the property when she left the property in trust. Apparently people in Boston think that distance has increased since 1929. The other thing is of course the item in the will that stipulates that if Boston couldn't fulfill its obligations then the land should be taken away from them.

One very ominous aspect of this letter is item two in paragraph two. "Assuming (2) we receive the anticipated level of cooperation from the Attorney Generals office, it should be possible to gain probate court approval for the application of the doctrine of cy pres and the sale or other disposition of the property."

This is a huge concern because it means that someone has been lying at the AG's office. The town of Burlington and its state representative have had standing requests to be informed of any discussions about the property with the AG. How can Boston anticipate this cooperation unless they have requested it?

This is ominous because if you are a political gadfly in Massachusetts you know that the attorney generals office is always a launching pad for a run at the corner office. There is nothing more dangerous for the people of the Commonwealth than a politically ambitious prosecutor searching for the next big case that will improve their political standing. With 25 million dollars potentially involved, along with the undying loyalty of the Boston delegation, can you see the attorney general siding with some old dead lady's will?

Because of some very hard and diligent work by Pat O'Reilly and Cath Moore of the Friends of Mary Cummings Park, there is a lot more to learn about Boston's effort to steal this woman's legacy. Thanks to them, this theft if successful will have to occur at a well lit place such as the supreme court.
You can read more here http://cummingspark.org/thepark/documents.php

Friends of Mary Cummings Park

This past week two hand carved wooden signs situated on each end of Mary Cummings Park were stolen. It is hard to imagine that this is a simple act of vandalism since the signs were not individual targets but were joint actions stolen within hours of each other. Sign and posts were uprooted an nothing but holes left.

This act may be the proverbial straw that has broken the camel's back in terms of legal action regarding the park. It is not the sum of $3500 dollars for the costs of the signs that is the catalyst. It is the fact that a dedicated group of volunteers has taken the time, effort and expense to do the one overt act of recognition of this woman's magnificent philanthropic act that the City of Boston has been unwilling or unable to do for the past 50 years. That simple act of recognition is now sullied and spat upon by someone whose agenda does not match that of the donor.

No, Boston has not met the terms of the bequest that Mrs. Cummings made. They have been to busy looting the trust money as well as thinking of ways to sell or exploit the property in a way that would result in maximizing the yield into Boston's coffers.

Burlington as a town and a collection of weak kneed politicians over the years has enabled Boston's malfeasance by refusing to confront the issue. The excuse has always been not to anger the big city. Even now, Burlington officials are "waiting to hear" from Boston regarding their plans for the property.

We already know what their plans are by virtue of a prepared Cy Pres filing from 20 years ago that details how the property would be sold and the profits distributed. The activities of these nefarious characters can be viewed here.

http://cummingspark.org/documents/Cummings_Estate-AG_scans_03_08_2006/

This situation is not a complicated one. The 218 plus acres was left with specific instructions for Boston to carry out. The city was to act in trust for the beneficiaries who are the people of Boston who Mrs. Cummings envisioned as being in the entire region.

Boston has performed none of the provisions of the trust over 70 years and has amply demonstrated that they should be removed as trustees of the property. A little over two years ago I appeared before the Burlington Board of Selectmen in executive session accompanied by then Mayor of Woburn John Curran and with Warren Cummings, a direct descendant of the family.

At that meeting we proposed a simple strategy designed take a legal action by the City of Woburn, the Cummings family and the Town of Burlington that would request the Attorney General and the courts to replace Boston as the trustees of the park with Burlington, Woburn and the Cummings family replacing it. Finally, a responsible action would be taken.

What was the result? I don't know because we were not even given the courtesy of a thank you note. Weeks of preparation and an hour long presentation with a neighboring chief executive were met with blank faces.

Well it doesn't matter now because a small group of dedicated individuals who actually give a damn about the bequest of a great woman are going to do something on their own.

The Celtics

The Celtics are off to a 13 and 2 start that is beyond what most of the green faithful could possibly have imagined or in our wildest dreams hoped for. The trio of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are a joy to watch every night. Celtic style basketball has been revived here in Beantown with a team that is unselfish with the ball and is playing the most suffocating defense in the league.

Even though it is early in the season, kudos have to go out to Danny Ainge for having the nerve to pull of the deals that landed Garnett and Allen in Boston. Over Garnett's career we saw him infrequently in Boston and a fan of the game watching Garnett play night in and night out gives you a much better appreciation of the grace and power of his game than reading a box score could ever do.

As important as his physical skills are, his on court attitude contributes even more. Garnett leads by example by being in ultra playing shape, by taking no plays off and by demanding that his team take the same approach.

As currently constituted and with any injury luck it is apparent that this team will be making the playoffs and going deep into them. The one suspect in the whole plan remains coach Doc Rivers. Doc has proven time and time again that he is not a particularly good end of game strategist and now it appears that he is not going to be much of a season long strategist as it concerns harboring his resources.

Garnett, Pierce, and Allen are all in their early thirties. Your thirties are a wonderful decade for the average person in life but for a basketball player it is the beginning of the end. In order for the Celtics to get the most out of this season and the seasons to come with this trio then a plan must be put in place now to accomplish a couple of things.

The big three must play a reasonable amount of minutes on a nightly basis. Already Doc has Pierce and Garnett at 39 minutes a game and the oldest of the three, Ray Allen is logging over forty. Winning a game by thirty or winning the divison by 20 games will mean nothing if when we get to the finals our go to guys are exhausted. The NBA season is a long and demanding one that culminates in a grueling playoff format in which teams REALLY play hard.

Not only will the health of the big three be a continuing issue but so to will the contribution of the bench. Since getting a high seed in the playoffs is a forgone conclusion, Rivers should be setting a regular rotation that will result in his bench getting fully integrated into the offense and defense by providing meaningful minutes against other teams first units.

After 15 games we can see that this team has a legitimate chance to bring us another NBA championship. Let's coach the whole season with that goal in mind.

Rodriguez humiliates the Yankees

When Alex Rodriguez opted out of his record contract with the Yankees, club management was quick to point out that they would not be in the market to re-sign the star third baseman. The primary reason was that as a result of his actions the Yankees would lose a 21 million dollar subsidy that was due them from the Texas Rangers when the Yanks acquired Rodriguez from them.

My how quickly thier hurt feeling have healed as it is reported that Rodriguez by passed his agent Scott Boras and had executives from Goldman Sachs "reach out" to the Steinbrenner brothers to restart negotiations.

There is one and only one reason why Rodriguez is back with the Yankees and that is because Boras over played his hand. He was on the market just long enough to know that no body else in baseball was either stupid enough or had enough money to accede to minimum starting numbers of 350 million that Boras had allegedly floated to sign the biggest star in his stable.

A second look however may not treat Boras as badly. The reported deal is 275 million for 10 years along with a not yet released bonus and incentive package for the possible assault that Rodriguez will make on the new home run record held by Barry Bonds.

Listen to how Hank Steinbrenner described the role Boras played."Boras did a lot of good things for Alex through the years, and Alex knows that. I mean, obviously, he's going to look to Scott's advice on everything," Steinbrenner said. "That's not unusual today. It's not like he's the only one. And if an agent gets out of line or makes bad decisions, then that's going to hurt the player. And obviously, that's one of the things that happened."

Apparently Hank's analytical skills are some what lacking. Boras cost him 21 million in cash and then his client comes back hat in hand and the Yankees offer him what will likely be a 300 plus million dollar guaranteed deal and Hank is telling us how badly Boras operated for his client?

Of course only time will measure the economic or competitive wisdom of this deal. We can look in the past however as an indicator of the future. Rodriguez has been a fabulous regular season player for the Mariners, Rangers and Yankees. During his career his teams have been post season flops and his October performances have been mediocre to be charitable.

He certainly has additional revenue potential for the Yanks as he advances on the all time home run record. He is only 244 away from breaking the now tainted Bonds number. However, that is a long way away and he is mortal and there fore subject to the same potential for injury that has derailed many another career.

In the end this move may turn out to be a huge mistake for the Yankees. They have an aging pitching staff and outfield and now have invested a huge amount of their resources in one person who to date has not dramatically improved post season performances for any club he has played for. What this will do for the Yankee club house is also up for debate. It is safe to say the Rodriguez is no Derek Jeter.

We can say that he is a tremendous businessman. He is about to ink a record deal and he has Yankee management thinking that his agent has been embarassed. I am sure Boras will be laughing all the way to the bank with his huge chunk of Yankee money.

The writer's strike

A labor strike in my view is serious business. When workers leave their jobs and face the uncertainty of a period of time when they are not bringing home a paycheck to their families then I automatically think there are issues surrounding the action that are significant.

Over the years however, I have come to view some strikes with more sympathy than others. It is much easier to side with miners and agricultural workers than it is to side with baseball and hockey players.

In the last two instances of major sports strikes, the actions came back to haunt the strikers since it was years before the two industries returned to any semblance of their former prominence. In fact in the case of hockey, the damage done by the strike (or lockout depending or your side of the issue) is still being felt.

Just such a scenario might be developing in Hollywood over the writer's strike. The last strike was in 1988 and lasted a total of 22 weeks. A lot has happened since 1988 and most of it does not bode well for the writers or the studios. There are a lot more competing interests for viewers these days and many of those choices do not include unionized writers or Hollywood studios.

Cable in general and the web in particular have been grabbing off more and more of the the customers available viewing hours and that is likely to increase if an extended run of repeats is all that network TV is likely to offer.

As in any action, there is always the law of unintended consequences. The consequences for the writers and for Hollywood in general is that viewers may find that a few extra hours with a good book or a hobby or even quality time with the family might be a significantly more enjoyable couple of hours than that same time spent in front of the benign time waster called television.

Back a number of years ago I made a vow that under no circumstances would I spend any time in front of the television watching programs having anything to do with cops, doctors or lawyers. My thinking was that everything in those categories have been done and over done. There are only so many times you can see an actor trying to do his imitation of Jack Webb of Dragnet fame.

The end result is that I have substituted a number of very enjoyable pursuits in place of sitting on the sofa watching network TV. The writers and the studios better get this over quick so that TV watching Americans don't look for more interesting and personally productive alternatives.

Release the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was authorized by congress to prevent a repeat of the domestic economic disruption as a result of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. The idea of a reserve had been bandied about for many years before the Energy Policy and Conservation Act was signed into law by President Ford in 1975. The first major Middle East crisis at the Suez Canal in 1956 resulted in President Eisenhower's call for such legislation.

The physical location of the reserve is in hollowed out salt domes in Texas and Louisiana. The capacity of the reserve is 727 million barrels and its current inventory as of November 2 stands at 694.1 million barrels. http://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html

On August 8, 2005, the President signed the Energy Policy Act of 2005 (P.L. 109-58). The act permanently authorized the reserve and required, “as expeditiously as practicable,” expansion of the SPR to its approved maximum of 1 billion barrels.

"The Energy Policy and Conservation Act authorizes draw down of the Reserve
upon a finding by the President that there is a “severe energy supply interruption.”
This is deemed by the statute to exist if three conditions are joined: If “(a) an emergency situation exists and there is a significant reduction in supply which is of significant scope and duration; (b) a severe increase in the price of petroleum products has resulted from such emergency situation; and (c) such price increase is likely to cause a major adverse impact on the national economy."

Authorized draw downs of the reserve have occurred on a number of occasions most recently after the damage done to refining and production facilities by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 (11 million barrels). Other events include Desert Storm (21 million barrels 1991), deficit reduction in
1996 (28 million barrels as well as two test sales occurring in 1985 and 1990. There has also been as many as 12 exchanges and loans to various oil companies that were dealing with such things as pipeline and shipping channels blockages and other hurricane events.

The Unites States has the largest reserve closely followed by Japan with a 550 million barrel capacity million capacity, Germany has Europe's largest reserve of many at over 500 million barrels and China has continued to fill its 150 million barrel capacity.

At the close of business on Friday oil reached a record high $95.93 a barrel in New York. There is any number of reasons why the price has reached these levels. Potential conflict with Iran over its nuclear ambition and Turkish threats to invade the oil producing regions in Northern Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish rebels are some of the political reasons. The major economic reasons are growth by the Chinese and Indian economies as well as smaller events such as yesterday's news that continued job growth in the United States indicates that we may not be entering the recession many people think is just over the horizon. Speculation is also a major contributor since contracts traded have also increased to record levels.

Under these conditions and with the price at its highest it would make little sense to continue to fill international reserves when just the opposite course of action would bring a better result.
The one major benefit of high oil prices is that the American corporate and individual consumers (largest importer and consumer of energy) are now forced to accelerate efforts in both conservation of oil as well as conversion to alternative sources. This is happening now and is probably an irreversible trend.

This is not going to happen over night. In the mean time, the U.S. and world governments have the tools to moderate these prices as well as punishing oil speculators by releasing parts of their reserves or at the very least stop hoarding existing production by continuing to fill reserves with oil at these prices.

The oil price bubble will burst at some point just as all price run ups driven by fear and greed do. It is time for the U.S. to give a price decline a little momentum. Release a hundred million barrels or so from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and use the profits on something like an investment for Social Security.

Fan euphoria

When it comes to the Red Sox I am as superstitious as everybody else in the Sox Nation. I held off writing about them for most of the year for fear of jinxing them the way I did last year. Despite knowing better I couldn't resist and wrote a piece called I like our chances http://philgallagher.blogspot.com/2007/08/i-like-our-chances.html and sure enough shortly thereafter the 6 game lead the Sox had over the Yanks evaporated down to 2. Fortunately the club over came my bad judgement and finished in first and held the home field advantage through out the playoffs.

After that near miss I kept quiet even as the club went down 3 games to 1 against the upstart Indians. After winning game 5 and heading back to Boston, I wanted to shout at the top of my lungs that we had them just where we wanted them. There was no way the Indians could win, but I didn't say a word. I kept to my basic protocol. I wore the same uniform, jeans and SOX hoodie, I sat in the same place on the sofa, I made the same pre-game telephone calls and for the sake of my health, in crucial moments I shut the TV off.

So here we are against the Rockies up 3 games to 0 and I feel so confident that I have actually washed my uniform. No amount of jinxing is going to make a difference in this series. The Sox are the superior team and it is apparent. The starting pitching has been outstanding and the club is simply killing the ball. When the bats have failed (game 2 a 2 to 1 win)the bull pen has held the Rockies at bay.

With Jon Lester going tonight it is conceivable that the Sox could fashion their second World Series sweep. Even if they don't it is unlikely that the Rockies can survive another outing by the unhittable Josh Beckett in a game five.

Being a fan in Massachusetts is now truly an embarrassment of riches. The Sox are going to win the World Series, the Patriots are on a roll that has rarely been seen in the NFL, Boston College is sitting at number 2 in the college football world and the Best Celtic team in 15 plus years is about to hit the parquet on Friday night.
It is somewhat of an unsettling feeling, having nothing to complain about.

So long Joe

As a die hard Red Sox fan it is easy to bid adieu to Joe Torre as manager of the Yankees. In his long tenure as skipper of the Bombers it seemed he rarely made any mistakes against us and maddeningly, he was always a gentlemen who clearly kept himself above the fray. He never seemed to be overly concerned about the ancient Yankee Red Sox rivalry. For him we were just another team that he vanquished more often than not.

There is simply no denying Joe's record of success with the Empire. He joined them in 1996 http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/torrejo01.shtml and won the World Series his first year, he went on to complete a remarkable run in 2000 by winning his fourth World Series in five years. Since that time it has been a serious dry spell. Although the Yanks have finished first in the division 10 out of 12 times and have made the playoffs each year during Torre's reign he has not won it all for seven years and this year finished behind the Red Sox in the division.

Against this back drop it was rather stunning to hear George Steinbrenner announce during the series with the Indians that Joe's job would be on the line if they didn't prevail over the Tribe. Well in true Steinbrenner fashion it turned out to be bluster as after a few days of hemming and hawing the Yankee management announced that Joe would be offered a one year deal at 5 million dollars with another 3 million of incentives if he reached the World Series. If the deal worked out it would be a nearly two million dollar raise over the 6 million that he received in the last year of his current three year deal. It is worth noting that Joe's current deal is worth twice what any other manager in baseball is making.

Well Joe was insulted and considered the offer a slap in the face and rejected it out of hand. Pardon my lack of manners but I find it rather insulting that Joe Torre is that much of a prima donna. Yes, all the things said about Joe as a manager are probably true, he is good with the players and the media. He has a great record. However, there is a lot more to this story. The main feature is that over the past seven years the Yankees have spent over a billion and a half dollars filling the Yankee roster with the best players that money can buy. More money spent than any other team in pro sports history.

The job of managing the Yankees doesn't include much heavy lifting. You have more coaches, the best facilities, the biggest crowds and a sure trading deadline acquisition to get you ready for the playoffs. Despite these advantages the Yankees have been beaten by lesser payrolls and quite frankly lesser talented teams for the past 7 years.

The one exception to this might be the 2004 Red Sox who also had an enormous payroll. In that series that Yankees had a 3 to 0 series lead and had their foot on the neck of the Red Sox yet ended up in a record setting collapse.

The fact of the matter is that with the Yankee resources, many a competent manager might have had the record that Torre had during his reign. It is useful to take a look at Torre's record with the Mets, Braves and Cardinals in his fourteen years prior to taking over the Yankees. It is a quite unremarkable, with only 1 division win during that time.

Certainly Torre has the right to go out under any circumstances that he chooses, however it is difficult to view him in a sympathetic light when he passes on a record setting paycheck simply because it has a performance clause attached to it. The average Joe attending Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park has to face that requirement every day.

Thoughts on the economy

As we approach the 20th anniversary of Black Monday, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987) there will be inevitable comparisons between market conditions then and market conditions now. The first and most obvious is that at the end of that day the Dow stood at around 1739 which is certainly a far cry from the 13,892 that it closed at last night. Simple math shows a nice 8 fold increase over the last 20 years but the increase was not without some white knuckle events.

In no particular order and without judging the severity of the impact of each, we have experienced the following distressing events, Asian contagion, Russian default, Long Term Capital management, the Millennium bug, the Internet bubble/bust, Enron, Worldcom, September 11, 2001, Hurricane Katrina and now the sub prime crisis.

Despite all of these events during the intervening years we still are at or near all time highs in the equity markets. In addition, despite these events, we have seen the largest number ever of people of the world population leave the poverty level and domestically we have seen the largest increase in home ownership in history. Inflation is relatively low, interest rates are headed lower, unemployment is down and productivity is up.

With all these rosy condition why am I nervous? Well consider some other items as well, the dollar is low and headed lower, energy is at all time highs as are commodities such as food and raw materials including gold. Both the housing and auto industries are in recession. When have we ever had a combination of those conditions without the over all economy going into recession?

Judging from the earnings reports that are coming in from the financial industry it is possible that we are at the beginning of the sub prime damage as opposed to near the end. Despite all of this we seem to continue to roll along merrily.

What are the elements of the world economy that are contributing to continued optimism in the financial markets? Is the emergence of India and China as well as Nafta contributing so positively to our export business that the economy can be sustained with weakness in some of our major economic components? Is the old despicable adage that "war is good for business" the primary reason? Is a lower dollar an engine of export growth?

I haven't got a clue, but one thing I know for sure, taking a little money off the table is never a bad idea.

Sports action

A couple of weeks ago I was at a business event and the treasurer of the state was the guest speaker. His topic of conversation was his support for casino gambling in the Massachusetts. He focused on a variety of reasons why it would work and how much revenue it would bring in and how it wouldn't effect the most profitable lottery in the country.

During the Q&A session I submitted a question about the possibility of a sports book in the commonwealth. The reply was treated like a taboo. Sports betting was an unknown, fraught with societal problems such as addiction and corruption of men. Apparently little old ladies sitting in front of a slot machine banging in her social security check doesn't merit the same type of concern.

In fact, a casino is more detrimental for a variety of reasons. The main one however is the return to the player. A seasoned gambler would no more play some of the casino games than he would buy a lottery ticket with his stake. That's because he knows that the lottery is simply a tax on people who are bad at math

The sports gambler is a different breed than the card player or game of chance player. The primary difference is your interest in the particular sport. Not many game players grow up playing the games in high school nor is it possible for your family to follow a particular casino team. Some friends of mine can boast four generations of family members betting on the Red Sox.

So if revenue is the name of the game why not let all of the closet bettors contribute to the state coffers? Some grown up societies have legal sports gambling with out the countries going to Hell in a hand basket, why can't we?

Why would we bet anyway? Well let me reply hypothetically for legal reasons. It adds a bit of excitement to the game as well as validates an individual's knowledge of the game. I will use the Patriots this week end as an example.

The line at game time was 16, meaning the Patriots were favored to win by 16 points against the under dog Cleveland Browns. My hypothetical friend was sure that the Pats would win but was concerned about the large number of points against him. Never the less his football acumen convinced him of the Patriots superiority and bet them to win.

Now this is where the excitement comes in. On the opening drive Cleveland marches down the field and is about to score from the one yard line when Junior Seau makes an interception to thwart Cleveland. Things are looking up as the Pats rack up ten points and follow up with another ten in the second quarter. My friend has a smugness about him as things are looking good as the half ends 20 to zero.

The Pats play a sloppy third quarter failing to score in the third for the first time this year. Cleveland scores a field goal to cut the lead to 17. My friend is getting a little nervous.

Things deteriorate a little further when Cleveland opens the fourth quarter with a touchdown cutting the lead to 10. Tom Brady restores a little order by driving the team down the field and scores on a nice play to Ben Watson to make the lead 17 with 9:40 to go.

Still a lot of time but in the next nine minutes you have to figure the Pats can outplay Cleveland. Well the Browns refuse to go quietly and at 5;56 they score to cut lead back to 10 at 27 to 17. Our friend is now apoplectic. He knows that Belichik and Brady will put this one to bed by slowly driving down the field over the next five minutes and run out the clock.

The football gods are shining on him however as Brady is a bit to efficient and finds himself on the Cleveland 8 yard line with 1:56 to go. Surely this offensive machine called the New England Patriots will push home another score and every New England bettor will be delighted. Three rushes and an incomplete pass to Kyle Brady and the Browns take over at their own 4 with a paltry 52 seconds to go. There was an audible groan throughout the stadium as everyone taking the Patriots knows they won't cover the point spread.

Every one's fortunes turn on a dime when after Cleveland completes a 21 yard reception, our own hero Randall Gay strips the ball and runs into the end zone to return the margin to 17 at 34 to 17. The elation is interrupted for a moment as a replay is called to determine if indeed it was a fumble. Loud cheers erupt throughout the stadium as the ruling on the field stands!

Don't count your money yet as Cleveland takes over on their own 42 yard line with 42 seconds to go and immediately marches to the Patriots 10 yard line. With no time outs the Cleveland quarterback spikes the ball to halt the clock. It is now second down and goal and Cleveland gets 3 chances to pass the ball into the end zone. Cleveland then attempts 3 straight passes. After each pass, there was an audible sigh of relief as the margin of victory held to the 17 and all the bettors covered.

Are you telling me you can have that kind of fun at a slot machine?

Casino in Burlington?

The town meeting vote Monday to approve the Second Avenue Planned Development District continues a trend in Burlington over the past few years of approving almost anything the development community asks for.

This trend includes a complete disregard for zoning provisions that have been added in the past. The most obvious example is the FAR or foot area ratio that was passed a number of years ago. The purpose of that provision was to control density and reduce the amount of impervious surface in these developments. This is of particular importance in the aquifer resource district. By preventing the entire area within the development from being covered with building or asphalt, the idea was that it would enable ground water to be able to recharge itself around the Great Meadow, the area of the town's main well field.

At the conclusion of the meeting Monday I asked how the development would fit in the FAR restrictions and a member of the planning board told me the project completely "blew the FAR out of the water."

The Aquifer Overlay District was passed years ago primarily because of events that occurred in the area of this particular development. In the early fifties the town was anxious for industrial development and had approved a number of manufacturing companies that were involved in up to that point unfamilar chemical processes. The major use was manufacturing of printed circuit boards and other electronics facilities that used strange new solvents which later much to our chagrin we learned were volatile organic compounds such as trichlorofluoroethane.

As the years wore on these companies were found to have been discharging these chemicals directly into the town's sanitary sewer lines. This would have been Boston's problem because the lines go down to Deer and Nut Island and finally out to Boston Harbor. These chemicals, however, had a very corrosive effect on the asbestos lined cement sewer pipes and ultimately the flow simply dissolved the lines so that eventually the effluent was seeping into the ground as it left the facilities.

The town first caught wind of this when these solvents began to be detected in the drinking water and ultimately led to the town shutting down a number of wells. The source was a mystery until the sewer lines caved in and the culprits were found out.

This began an almost ten year legal battle that concluded with a settlement that enabled the town to build an enormous treatment plant to rid itself of the damage. It also resulted in the passage of the aforementioned Aquifer Overlay District, the purpose of which was to prevent certain uses in the area of the well field.

Under this back drop it was somewhat stunning to hear a consultant paid for by the developer to represent the town, saying at town meeting that not to worry about a bio tech use on the property. Again, the consultant was presenting the idea that the town should violate it's own bylaws. No one in town government thought this absurd. This was surprising when you consider that a golf course was proposed for the land locked land a number of years ago and it was defeated because of concerns for the water supply.

The end result is that we now have a new 560,000 square foot development coupled with the other nearly 3 million square feet approved but not built. If the purpose of this is to solve our revenue problem through a commitment to unrestrained growth then recent history would seem to condemn this strategy to failure. I have pointed this out in a recent piece, the town has been on an unprecedented expansion over the past few years and the residential taxpayer has seen their taxes dramatically increase while the commercial industrial sector has decreased.

I suggested to a friend of mine in government that the net effect of all this expansion was to simply drive down commercial values and commercial taxes because of intense competition, he suggested "that was my opinion." No I replied "it is a fact." The phenomena can clearly be born out by our own data. In the accompanying chart, take a look at the percentage of the tax rate that the commercial industrial sector was paying in 2002 and what it paid in 2007. The answer is 64.69% then and 54.96% now. Skeptics will say, no that the swing is a result of an increase in values of residential real estate but the decline in values and tax revenue can be verified by real numbers. The current commercial industrial value of $1,361,394,435 is well below the 2002 value of $1,473,890,731. http://www.burlington.org/AssessorsDepartment_files/CL-RATE.pdf

If the feeling of the towns' leadership is to continue this development strategy and maximize value and tax revenue then what action do we take to raise those values as high as possible and reap the tax windfall for the resident? Clearly the answer is to propose that the state locate one of its casinos on the land locked land.

Let me preface the following remarks by saying that I am opposed to such use of a pristine 270 acre forest property and that the best use of the property would be to wait another fifty years or so and let another generation make a decision. My theory on that is a community should leave a legacy for others that follow.

However, if growth is what you want then a casino makes magnificent sense from a variety of different perspectives beginning with the fact that the town can offer a unified title on an enormous piece of property directly adjacent to route 95 and Route 3 North. Access to either highway would be a very simple construction process. None of the other talked about locations can offer the location, access and number of potential gamblers that Burlington can. With highways, an airport and a steady stream of out of staters going by every day we could become a gambling Mecca!

Construction potential on the site would be huge. Let's assume for a moment that 170 acres would be used for wetlands, streets and parking. That would leave one hundred acres for casinos, hotels and other amenities. This amount of space could easily accommodate 20 million square feet of development. Think of the potential, all of the towns commercial development times 2 could fit on the property.

The revenue stream would be enormous starting with the sale of the property itself. The property would be worth a minimum of $100,000 an acre up to as high as $200,000 per acre or a range between 27 million and 54 million dollars. That amount of money would eliminate all of the towns outstanding debt and put some money in the bank.

The annual flow to the tax coffers would be realized by a combination of cash flow cows. The casinos and ancillary buildings would generate tax revenue, the hotel room tax would double or triple and the surrounding commercial values would most likely increase as well.

In fact, the property could generate as much as 8 to 10 million a year in taxes to the town or equal to what the town lost for it in the court battle over the the eminent domain taking of the property nearly 20 years. Remember we can't sign a deal for another 2 years because *Prentiss Properties (successor to Cadillac Fairview) still has a right of first refusal option on the property.

If the town does get involved in this type of discussion let's make sure we get some really competent representation. The most recent tax and land deals the town has been involved have not worked out that well.

* We have since been informed at the January town meeting that the option has been acquired by a local developer.

Drop out Ginny

The decision by Senator Robert Havern to resign from his seat to take a position with a large Boston law firm provides a rare opportunity for district politicians to move up in the political pecking order.This has naturally resulted in a free for all and a plethora of candidates jumping in the race.

The district itself is comprised of Burlington, Arlington, Billerica and 6 wards in Woburn and 6 precincts in Lexington (different terminology because Lexington is a town and Woburn a city).The announced candidates so far in the democratic field are state Rep. Charles Murphy of Burlington, state rep. Patrick Natale of Woburn, state rep James Marzilli of Arlington, Robert Peters of Lexington and Virginia Mooney of Burlington.

The seat has been dominated by Arlington (Krause and Havern) since Bedford's Carol Amick held the seat some 20 years ago and after the lines of the district were redrawn. The reason for this is primarily numbers oriented. With a population of over 42,000 Arlington can get behind a single candidate and carry the day.

Those of us who occasionally speculate on these things have often come up with a scenario in which the seat could move North in the district if a couple of things happened. If a candidate could get solid majorities in Billerica and Burlington and there were candidates in the other cities and towns then it might be possible for a Billerica or Burlington candidate to win the seat.Just such a scenario is developing now.

If another candidate gets in the race from Arlington then the weight of the Arlington numbers would be diluted and offer an even better chance for Charles Murphy if he gets a solid Burlington and good support in Billerica.

The math works equally for other candidates in other towns but if we are interested in having a senator from Burlington it makes little sense to analyze those numbers so let’s cut to the chase.

In a race that could be decided by a small number of votes, Burlington has a fly in the ointment in this scenario. That would of course be Virginia Mooney. If we make a simple examination of Virginia's campaigning and spending efforts in her previous runs for state representative and selectmen it leads to the obvious conclusion that Virginia is not going to win this race.

There is no denying that Virginia has every right to get into any race she wants to, however there is also no reason not to call this effort what it is. Virginia is nothing more than a spoiler for the local candidate's chances and a stalking horse for the opposition. If this assessment is incorrect then Virginia should run a serious campaign or move over for a Burlington candidate that has a chance. That would be a decision with the community's best interest in mind.

Good luck and be safe Tim

The fruit of a community and the only true measure of a community's values and collective effort is its children. How they grow up, and the values, traditions, and qualities they absorb, are spread throughout the rest of the nation and their accomplishments are reflection on the place they come from.

Over the years Burlington has produced so many fine young men and women that have gone on to achievement in many endeavors. Olympic medals, an Oscar, a Nobel prize, national championships and great business achievements are indicative of the many things we can be proud of as a community.

On Wednesday another young person will be leaving Burlington to take on life's challenges. Sunday morning I had an opportunity to have breakfast with and interview Timothy Cummings, who will be leaving Burlington for Quantico Virginia to enter the United States Marine Corp and its officer training school.

Tim is 26 years old and a 1998 graduate of Burlington High and a graduate of Suffolk University with a degree in business and government. Tim is well known in Burlington community service circles as he has served as State Representative Charles Murphy's aide. His other involvement is extensive including a seat on the Ways and Means Committee, as a Burlington Rotarian and involvement in many political campaigns.

With a nice cushy job at the state house and a bright political future ahead of you why go in the military now, why you Tim? "The question is not why me, but more why not me? I was a congressional intern to Rep. David Camp of Michigan and was on the floor of congress when the Iraq War vote was taken. At the time I realized that many young people would be affected by such a vote and at the time I asked myself that question."

"I have always wanted to be a Marine. I admire the values, tradition and discipline that the Corp represents. I want to take on the challenge to see if I can measure up to the mental, physical and academic standards necessary to be a Marine Corp officer. I want to serve my country in this way"

What about your mom and dad's thoughts and concerns? "It is a bittersweet decision for the whole family. I come from an extended family that has always held community service in high regard. There is fear for me of the uncertainty but also pride in my commitment."

What role did Charley (former Marine captain) have in your decision, did he recruit you? "No I want to be clear on this, it is just the opposite. When I told him of my decision to move on he played devil's advocate. When I made clear what my intentions were, he did something that I am indebted to him for. He offered to help me in any way that he could to prepare me physically and mentally in ways that only someone who went through it could. What that meant was running every morning at 6 o'clock. Not a commitment for a day or a week, but every day for three months. The result of his role model was that I shed 30 pounds and have met or exceeded the physical requirements in the various categories."

You are a politically astute Massachusetts Democrat. You know the general attitude in the Commonwealth's delegation regarding the military and the current climate within your own party regarding the Iraq War. What about the politics of your decision?

"The very essence of our system is one of checks and balances. The military is an instrument of public policy presided over by civilians. Regardless of my politics, regardless of republican or democratic civilian leadership, I am prepared to serve the commander in chief. There has been many before me in Burlington who have served the country with this principle in mind and it is one I believe in strongly. I understand anti-war and anti military sentiment however issues like Darfur and others are not settled by holding hands and singing Kumbaya."

What is in store for you when you get to Quantico? "Up first is 10 weeks of basic training. Rise at 4:30 and work till mid morning, followed by five hours of academic work then more physical and skills training till 10 at night. The next day is more of the same. After that I will spend 6 months in TBS which is the Basic School of Leadership. Following that I will be deployed operationally."

What has been the reaction of your friends and peers? "Mostly people have been concerned with my well being, I understand this and I am fully cognizant of the risks. The overall reaction has been one of support for my decision. There has been a little disappointment in a very few places but primarily because my decision might have conflicted with someone else's politics."

Good luck Tim in your new quest, be safe and come home soon.

Much a do about nothing

According to Colts coach Tony Dungy it was a really sad day for the NFL after hearing of Bill Belichik's penalties for video taping the Jets defensive signals. Most if not all the rest of the coaches had the common sense not to utter such non sense. This is after all, a league with a guy behind bars for murdering his wife, another who plead a murder rap down to a misdemeanor.

We could go on and on regarding other NFL problems such as previous rampant steroid and amphetamine abuse, animal abuse and other criminal activity but why bother? Let's focus on the main accusation against Belechik which was cheating, that by comparison is a mountain out of a mole hill.

Many in the media are appalled and just shocked and at the same time gleeful, that the arrogant and high and mighty Belechik has finally been brought back to earth by being caught red handed in the act of stealing defensive signals. This of course is the same media that has stood by for years with out so much as a single line or investigative report on the subject. A subject by the way that is acknowledged in some circles as common place. What they are really shocked and appalled about is that he simply refuses to allow the media to dictate what subjects he will address them on.

The whining in the media room today almost resulted in some of them breaking out in tears because Belechik would not speculate on how his reputation and the reputation of his players and their Super Bowl wins by the team are now tainted.

The NFL more than any other sport is a league whose principal method of analysis of opponents is done almost exclusively on film. Every single player and every single play in the NFL has been recorded for years. One of Belechik's great claims to fame was that as a kid he was always in the film room when his father was a college coach.

Since the advent of the quarterback helmet receiver there has always been a diligent effort by offensive coordinators to steal the opposing teams defensive signals and relay them to the quarterback. Any offensive coach that wasn't trying to do that should be fired. By the same token, any defensive coach that wasn't changing his signals on a regular basis must be a moron.

The use of signals in football is no different than that of baseball. Every person in the stadium can see the third base coach giving the signals to the base runners as well as the batter. Despite this, the pitcher and defensive players on the field still don't necessarily know what the batter or runner is going to do. I am sure a similar system is run by NFL coaches.

The circumstances surrounding Belechik's bust has some stench about it. The team that was playing the Patriots is the Jets coached by a Belechik protege by the name of Eric Mangini. Young Eric formerly served as the defensive coordinator for the Patriots. Of all people on Belechik's staff,the defensive coordinator would know exactly how the team was observing the opposing team. In fact, the son of one of Belechik's current coaches apparently works in the video department of the Jets.

It is rumored that Eric and Bill have a very chilly relationship since Eric's departure from the Patriots. Under the circumstances, if Belechik thought it was a big deal do you think he would have had a well known employee standing in full view on the sidelines taping the Jets? What is more likely to have happened is that Commissioner Goodell has been attempting to make a name for himself as a tough guy and knowing this Mangini saw an opportunity to embarrass Belechik and did so.

The bottom line is that this is an utterly foolish rule that should be eliminated so that everyone can conduct business the same way. The end result is that no matter what signals you have stolen your team still has to make plays on the field. The perfect example of this is the Green Bay power sweep and the USC student body right. At the height of their power each team operated the same way. The opponents knew they were going to run the play and they still couldn't stop it. This was in evidence last Sunday by Goodell's own admission. The taping of the signals had nothing to do with the butt kicking that was delivered to the Jets.

The Patriots won three Super Bowls because they were a physically more dominant team that out played their opponents. Certainly Belechik had a hand in preparing the club but once on the field of play Belechik did not catch a single pass or make a tackle.

Egg on their faces

On September 6, four Federal Reserve Bank presidents were quoted on Bloomberg as essentially declining to endorse a Fed rate cut in the up coming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 18. The fundamental reasoning behind these comments was that Kansas Fed President Hoenig, Lockhart of Atlanta, Poole of Atlanta and Fisher of Dallas had not seen enough convincing evidence as of yet to warrant a cut in the primary over night Fed rate.

If Lockhart and Hoenig have not seen enough spill over from the housing crisis, then they are two of the very few in the financial industry that have not. The bulk of the people who study this issue are betting on at least a 25 basis point cut if not 50 points.

The markets on Friday morning were quick to react to the Fed comments by opening down and staying down until the job report was issued by the Labor Department that only accelerated the decline. The consensus number from the experts who follow these matters was that the U.S. economy was to have created 110,000 new jobs in the August payroll report. Much to every one's chagrin that report showed a decline of 4,000 jobs, the first decline in over four years.

Adding further fuel to the fire was former Fed chief Alan Greenspan who likened current conditions to previous catastrophic events in this way;

"The behavior in what we are observing in the last seven weeks is identical in many respects to what we saw in 1998, what we saw in the stock-market crash of 1987, I suspect what we saw in the land-boom collapse of 1837 and certainly [the bank panic of] 1907." Greenspan, who was Fed chief for 18 years was much more tight lipped and nuanced in his comments when he had the job.

In 87 we saw an almost 22% decline in the Dow Jones Average on the now famous Black Monday. I wonder if the Fed president's wanted a mulligan on their comments after hearing what big Al had to say?

The fact of the matter is that the sub prime crisis and the housing slowdown are now visibly spreading through out the U.S. economy. There is also an another ominous development on the economic front as Chinese goods available in this country have been blemished in a way that may take a few years to recover from.

One of the great drivers of consumer spending is the U.S. mommy. When Mattel recalls over 21 million items because they pose a danger to children you know that she is taking very clear notice of where the product she buys comes from.

The circuitous route back to American manufacturing is easy to trace. American consumers have been a large reason for the tremendous growth of the Chinese economy, that growth has then enabled China to both buy high end American manufactured technology and infrastructure products. If there is a slowing of the Chinese economy there will be resulting fall out in the U.S.

The most effective tool available to the Fed in dealing with economic events is a reduction in interest rates. The sooner they start the less likely that the on coming slowdown will be longer and deeper.

No argument against the Bush homeowner proposal

In a recent investment outlook published by bond guru Bill Gross of Pimco, he describes in easy to understand detail, the problems besetting the United States financial and housing markets as a result of the sub prime mortgage lending fiasco.http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+September+2007.htm

For the moment we can leave the cause of the problem to the rise in alternative, lesser regulated investment strategists who came up with various mortgage derivatives that in recent months few people have been able to value never mind find buyers of.

So far the primary victims of the subsequent liquidity crisis have been some smarty pants hedge fund managers who were touting their strategies as market neutral with ability to make money in up or down markets. Once again the markets have proven that no one is immune from getting a spanking in the wood shed of turbulent conditions.

It would be nice if they are the only victims however with foreclosure rates rising rapidly on the underlying properties securing the derivatives it won't be long before a large number of Americans homeowners are dramatically affected.

The fundamental point of the Gross argument is this "If we can bail out Chrysler, why can’t we support the American homeowner? The time has come to acknowledge that there are precedents aplenty in the long and even recent history of American policy making." The examples Gross uses go beyond Chrysler to include the Long term Capital Management and S&L bail outs in the 90's.

The stakes involved in the current situation are much higher than the previous situations. At risk are as many as two million American home owners who have gotten caught up in the squeeze of raising rates and falling values that is a cocktail likely to result in more and more foreclosure actions.The travails of those two million homeowners will reverberate throughout the rest of the U.S. economy if they are left to sink or swim on their own.


Apparently President Bush is a reader of Bill Gross or just by coincidence the White House has arrived at some of the same conclusions Gross has. On August 31st, President Bush announced a plan to intervene in a way that is likely to greatly assist those home owners who have the greatest threat of losing their homes.http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/08/20070831-4.html

It is inevitable that some of those Wall Street wizards who helped create this problem will likely be bailed out as a by product of federal intervention in the housing market. No matter how distasteful that is, it can't be a reason to oppose this type of legislation. A wholesale collapse of the U.S. housing market and the financial instruments used to support it must be avoided at all costs. In terms of over all impact from a social and financial stand point, this crisis might be the defining moment in the Bush presidency.

Why should we?

Over the next year it is rumored that several more major parcels will be coming in for either new site plan approvals or zoning changes requesting Planned Development Districts. There are significant differences between the two requests. A site plan approval would essentially be new construction on a site with a specific zoning designation and as long at the project fit within the parameters of that designation then the property owner would have a right to whatever size and use the project was eligible for under that zone.

A Planned Development District is another matter. Under that designation the size and mixed uses would be whatever the developer asked for and received approval for by a two thirds vote of town meeting. The most recent example was the May town meeting decision to approve a change to Northwest Park. The park had approximately 2.1 million square feet under its current zoning but with the approved change those development rights went to approximately 3.3 million square feet.

A 1.2 million square feet increase of office and retail would be a significant amount of development for any community our size to absorb but to tell you the truth that is only the tip of the ice berg. Let's for a moment add up the other approvals that have been made over recent years that remain on the books but have not yet begun construction.

In no particular order there is the following;
Wall Street 300,000 sq. Feet
Sun Network Drive 400,000
Oracle 400,000
Wheeler Road 300,000
Northwest 1,200,000

The Ma/Com application in process now if approved would add another 560,000 square feet ( more than double what they have by right) to this list of approved but not started total of development rights.

With all of these approvals and counting the nearly 1 million square feet added over the last five or six years you expect that the assessed value of this commercial property has dramatically increased the total value of that class of real estate in town. If you thought that then you would be sorely disappointed. In fact according to these figures from the Assessor's Office, http://www.burlington.org/AssessorsDepartment_files/CL-RATE.pdf the current value of $1,361,394,435 is well below the 2002 value of $1,473,890,731. The net effect of this decline as well as the enormous increase in residential assessed values have resulted in the average residential tax payer footing a nearly 50% increase in the taxes on their home over this period.

What has been the benefit of this rush to increase development rights in the town? If you thought that significant infrastructure improvements were included as a quid pro quo then again you are disappointed. Not only has nothing been done to improve or even inspect the main sewer trunk, not one thing has been contributed to increase the production, storage or distribution of the water supply.

The town should be slowing down a bit on enormous PDD approvals in order to determine how we are going to absorb a nearly 30% increase to our existing commercial space. Just because someone wants a huge increase in his development rights does not mean that he is entitled to them nor does it automatically mean it is beneficial to the finances of the town if it has the effect of devaluing other properties as a result of new competition.

We may be at a point of diminishing returns in our commercial space. Approving and building more and more space with out a demonstrable way to absorb it into the market may in fact reduce our values and real estate tax income as the past five years have already proven.

The most recent water ban fiasco also points out how tenuous our infrastructure situation is. The enormous increase in restaurants and potential liquor license approvals will only exacerbate that problem.

Market uncertainty

It was quite a week on Wall Street as all the human emotions were on display. Fear, greed, disappointment, relief, and elation all took their turns at center stage.

The culprit of course is the on going uncertainty in the fixed income markets caused by sub prime credit woes. Sub prime by definition is loans that were issued to borrowers who were below acceptable norms for the granting of mortgages. Sub prime could have meant anything such as low credit scores, history of late payments or charge offs and previous bankruptcy as well as inadequate income to meet debt service.

In order to fully understand the current situation we have to go shortly before September 11, 2001. Prior to the attack on the towers in 2000 the Fed had set their rates at approximately
%6.5. In 2001 they began cutting rates when it was apparent that the economy was falling into recession. The dramatic decline in rates was accelerated post 9/11 http://www.newyorkfed.org/printable.html and ultimately resulted in the lowest rates in nearly fifty years.

The swift action by Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee staved off economic calamity as a result of the towers attack. The low rates resulted in any number of economic benefits. The primary beneficiary was the U.S.consumer and the residential real estate markets. With very low mortgage rates available, buyers who might have been shut out of the housing market suddenly found that debt service costs had dropped so dramatically that their incomes now made home ownership possible.

With such a large number of new buyers in the market this resulted in residential real estate prices rising to the highest levels ever seen. These values resulted in further stimulation to the economy as existing homeowners recognizing this new wealth began to tap into their home equity and this resulted in the consumer driven Goldilocks economy that we have seen over the past 5 years.

Now comes the trouble as a triumvirate of problems begins to assault the stretch home buyer who was on the margins trying to hold onto the American Dream. Many of these buyers had financed both the primary mortgage as well as a second mortgage to finance the down payment with adjustable rate mortgages. As the economy began to recover and the Fed recognized inflation pressures, the Federal Reserve began to normalize interest rates by slowly raising them. If a mortgage holder was late in converting the adjustable rate mortgages to fixed ones then they now faced the problem that they couldn't refinance because the now dropping values put the home owner under water in that his value did not exceed his indebtedness.

Adding to the home owners woes was the dramatic increase in utility costs. Rising oil prices in the Northeast for example resulted in home heating oil nearly tripling in price. The final blow of course is that the significant rise in real estate values produced a corresponding rise in residential real estate taxes.

With the number of new buyers and the amount of real estate that changed hands at high prices during the past five years now has inevitably led to a corresponding amount of increased activity in the foreclosure market.

This is where it gets very sticky for Wall Street and the U.S. economy in general. During the recent real estate boom, the traditional community bank source of mortgages was pushed to the back of the bus in favor of companies that bundled mortgages and sold them on Wall Street.

It is reported now that as many as 4% of sub prime mortgages are in the foreclosure process with as many as 16% more having delinquency problems. This has spelled disaster for a number of hedge funds that have held these instruments. The problem comes in the form of a liquidity crisis. That is basically defined this way, if you hold these instruments in your fund and suddenly your customers want their money back then you have to sell these instruments to get the necessary money(liquidity) to pay them.

Exacerbating the problems were the really smart Wall Street hedge fund managers who might have margined (used as collateral to buy more securities) the bundled mortgages. As the month has unfolded these managers have found that the instruments they hold no longer have any buyers and indeed they can not even value them in the market place. With client redemption requests as well as margin calls coming from their banks, several of these funds have gone belly up.

Just how big and how deep does the problem extend? That is the nub of the issue right now. How many loans have major U.S banks written to these various hedge funds and how shaky are the funds and the collateral? What impact will this have in the U.S credit markets and will the problem spill over into the U.S and world economies?

The answer to these questions are unknown at the moment but it is safe to say that the markets are taking serious notice. The Dow fell to as much as a ten percent correction off of recent highs during this week and the Nikkie in Japan had the biggest one day sell off (%5.4) in seven years. As that news was being absorbed Friday morning, the U.S. futures market was pointing to a similar type of opening when suddenly the Federal Reserve acted by reducing the discount rate by one half percent.

By taking such action and changing the bias from worries about inflation to worry about the health of the economy, the Fed sent a strong signal. The markets responded accordingly with a significant rise. This by no means signals the end of the problem. It does however mean that the Federal reserve has now focused its attention on this problem as the one deserving the most attention.

I like our chances

I wrote a similarly themed piece about the Red Sox last year at the All Star break and within minutes the team imploded and didn't even make the play offs finishing 11 games out. This year's edition seems less likely to be dissed by the baseball gods.

The primary reason that the Sox will win the American League East and the World Series is because of pitching. The Sox are the leading the American League with a 3.81 earned run average and it has come as a result of good pitching in all phases of the game. The starting pitching is getting deep into games and then the bullpen is taking it over and bringing it home.

The pitching staff has been bolstered for the stretch run in two major ways. In a trading deadline deal they acquired Eric Gagne for late inning relief as a set up man for shut down closer Jonathan Papelbon and after a six week stint on the DL, Curt Schilling is back in the starting rotation.

In a short seven game series the Sox could feature a three man rotation of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling. If they get six innings then Terry Francona has the option of going to Hideki Okajima, Gagne and Papelbon to finish out the game. This combination is unmatched right now in the rest of baseball.

In Red Sox land this is akin to Bizarro world. Down through the years the team has always been featured as mashers with both pitching and defense coming up short. Not only are the Sox leading the league in pitching but they are also second in team defense.

The team's traditional strength at the plate is somewhat muted this year for a number of reasons. Both Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz are having sub par years in the power numbers area. The team itself is ninth in the league in home runs however they strike out as a team fewer times than any team in the American League. They have scored a total of 589 runs which is a 89 runs fewer than the Yankees have scored in the same number of games. The Yankees numbers are some what suspect because of the number of times they play the Devil Rays and the way they have beaten them like a drum.

Some of the other low lights offensively are Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew. Neither of them have hit anywhere near their career statistics. There is still plenty of time for them to get hot but particularly in Lugo's case if it doesn't happen Alex Cora will be manning the shortstop position in the playoffs.

The rest of the club is solid at every position. Mike Lowell is having a great year at the plate as is Kevin Youkilis who also has taken to first base defensively as if he was born there. Dustin Pedroia was penciled in from day one as the starting second basemen despite many critics who said the little guy was no more than a career minor leaguer. Well , Theo and the Sox management have the last laugh on this one as so far Pedroia has been solid in the field and dynamite at the plate. After getting off to a horrible start Pedroia has been ripping the cover off the ball to the tune of a .326 batting average. In center field Coco Crisp has been solid and sometimes spectacular and at the plate he has raised his average to near .280 after a very slow start. Coco finally seems to be getting back on track after last years injury.

Although the Sox were 12 games ahead of the Yankees early on, no one in Red Sox Nation doubted that the Bombers would be in the thick of things at the end of the season. This week the Bombers went 8 and 5 to close within six games of first place in the division. It really doesn't matter what the Yankees do. As long as the Sox make it to the playoffs they will match up well with any teams they face. Besides, every Sox fan knows that all roads leading to success must go through the Bronx Bombers so as to make it that much more satisfying.

Garnett for half the team, two draft choices and your Aunt Bessie

News out on AP today has the Celtics trading Al Jefferson, Sebastian Telfair, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff and 2 number one draft choices for 31 year old Kevin Garnett. When I first read it all I could think about was half the team going in exchange for a guy who breaks his ankle the first day of training camp.

Forgive me for my pessimism but we Celtic fans are in the throes of a major down cycle since the last championship in 1986. We needn't go in to detail but the low points consist of Len Bias and Reggie Lewis dying way before their time followed by two failed lottery opportunities to get franchise players. We missed on Tim Duncan and most recently managed to miss chances at Oden and Durant.

After the initial shock I tried to be a little more optimistic with little success until I got on to the phone with my son. "Did you hear about the deal" I inquired, his reply was "of course, he had been talking about it all day." When I asked why he hadn't called me he said he thought he might wait until I had a chance to recover.


After ranting for a few minutes I finally gave him an opportunity to express his view on the subject. His reply was as close to a reasonable explanation as I can hope for. "For 8 years I have worked right next to the building they play in and for 7 of those years they have absolutely stunk. Adding Kevin Garnett along with Ray Allen and Paul Pierce and we have a legitimate chance for a 17th championship over the next 4 or 5 years, I deserve this."



Well now, after considering that reasoning I started taking a harder look at Garnett and found that perhaps that school of thought has some merit. Here are Garnett's career numbers http://aol.nba.com/playerfile/kevin_garnett/career_stats.html A close look reveals a player that is remarkably durable and consistent with numbers that make him perhaps one of the top three players in all of basketball.

He is a genuine 7 footer that is powerful, agile and possesses both a deft shooting and passing touch. He is also a banger on the boards averaging almost 11.5 per game. One stat I wasn't familar with until reading some of the press reports is that Kevin Garnett along with Larry Bird are the only 2 players in NBA history to average 20 points 10 rebounds and 5 assists per game for 6 consecutive seasons. If that is the type of game he is bringing to Boston then maybe including another aunt in the deal would be worth it to make it happen.