Who Knows Where the Time Goes was written by Sandy Denny 25 or so years ago. She was most prominently known as the lead singer for the British group Fairport Convention. It is a wonderful song and has been covered by some of the most accomplished female voices. Judy Collins, Mary Black, Eva Cassidy, Nina Simone and Susan Cowsill are a few that have sung haunting and beautiful renditions.
Her title would be a nice theme for a year gone by retrospective but I guess a better one for me would be "what the Hell happened to 2007?" Is it just my imagination or is a week or a month a shorter period of time as we get older? I feel like I was just getting up from the Thanksgiving table when it was time to sit down for Christmas dinner.
Before looking forward it might be worthwhile to look back on some of my prognostications from last year. A couple I hit on the nose and a couple I missed by a mile. The misses are as follows;
Oil has not fallen in price and in fact has continued to climb. Cuba did not fall primarily because I anticipated Fidel would be dead by now but the stubborn old codger is still hanging in there. John Kerry did not campaign for the presidency every day of 2007. His early gaffes took him out much earlier than I expected.
Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr was not assassinated. Unfortunately, Benazir Bhutto was. Ford Motor Company did not make a big comeback but they seemed to have stemmed the bleeding for the moment.
Neither the Patriots nor the Chargers won the NFL title and Scooter Libby was not exonerated but rather commuted instead. However, the San Antonio Spurs did win the NBA title.
On the plus side of the ledger I had a few wins. I resolved to lose ten pounds, but as I predicted I didn't. Saddam was hanged and nobody really cared. There was more weeping and moaning and gnashing of teeth over Darfur but nothing was done.
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid accomplished virtually nothing on major legislative issues facing the country. The new Democratic majority was helpless in the face of a lame duck president.
The New York Times did announce that the Iraqi war was un-winnable and called for complete withdrawal. The Times stock price continued to fall ending the year down over 61% from its price five years ago. In a complete turn about and an apparent acknowledgement of its continued leftist bias, the Times recently added noted neo con William Kristol to its op-ed roster, it won't help the declining Times franchise. Look for more job cuts and asset sales in the near future.
In more of a wishful thinking prediction I chose the Sox to win the World Series and as our ancestors rolled over in their graves the boys did win.
On the economic front I had predicted very dire consequences in the housing market but did not expect the degree in which it affected Wall Street. Chuck Prince of Citigroup, Stan O'Neal of Merrill Lynch and other notables were victims of the sub prime crisis. Victims if you consider tens of millions in severance pay as being victimized.
So what is in store for 2008?
1. I am afraid that a recession is in the future for the year. The Fed just seems to be continually behind the curve. Long treasury yields are low and may go lower, why isn't the Fed cutting faster?
2. Oil prices will fall this year! I guess my theme here is that if you predict it enough times it will come to pass. An economic slowdown may produce such a result but so to may consumer changes which are happening rapidly.
3. Troop reductions will begin in Iraq. General Patreus seems to have a handle on the situation and is producing results in terms of domestic tranquility. More importantly, the Iraqis themselves seem to be rejecting the idea of blowing themselves up.
4. The Patriots, the Red Sox (again) and the Celtics will all win championships.I know it sounds ridiculous but I have admitted to being an insufferable homer. So with Patriots undefeated at 16 and 0 and the Celtics having the best record in the NBA and the Red Sox perhaps signing Johan Santana, it may not be so far fetched.
5. Mitt Romney and John McCain or John McCain and Mitt Romney narrowly defeat Hillary Clinton and Bill Richardson for the respective tickets. This prediction might change if there is a brokered convention and the Democrats come up with a qualified candidate that can win. I doubt Al Gore would come back but he would seem to be the best alternative.
6. Legalized gambling will not be approved in Massachusetts. The decriminalizing of marijuana will occur after it passes on the ballot question and the elimination of the income tax will be narrowly defeated.
7. Global warming will lose some of its cachet in Hollywood.
8. Gold prices will fall from the current levels however quite slowly as will the dollar's descent begin to level off and stabilize.
9. Pakistan will have elections and there will be attacks on militants in the tribal lands. Osama Bin Laden and Amyn Al Swhahiri will be caught or killed.
10. Whitey Bulger will not be caught.
Happy New Year!
