Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Kerry Redux

Almost on the eve of what might be an election resurgence for the Democrats, John Kerry has stepped forward to diminish his party's chances. It is apparent that Kerry is suffering from campaign stress disorder with his comments regarding U.S. troops.

Here is the comment which at the center of the building storm.

''You know, education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq.'' Just in case you were wondering if Kerry was misquoted here is a video of his remarks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLuMWiQ6r2o

The spin being placed on this by the Kerry camp is that it was a botched joke regarding Bush getting us mired in Iraq. Once again Kerry attempts nuance when a simple straight forward apology should have been the order of the day.

Instead Kerry has chosen to dig in his heels and get into a contest that not only will hurt him but will also drag down the party with him. Remember that this is not the first time that Kerry has made disparaging remarks about the United States military. It was his famous congressional testimony after his 90 day Viet Nam tour that was the primary motivation behind the "Swift Boat Veterans" campaign that did enormous damage to his presidential aspirations.

Kerry supposedly learned from that experience that he should go immediately on the attack when he is criticized. Like always, a strategy designed out of hind sight regarding one incident is not always effective in the new situation. So it looks in this case. This is one of the quotes from Kerry response to Republican jibes at him.

"I'm not going to be lectured by a stuffed-suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq."

This has nothing to do with Michael J. Fox or Iraq, nor is it lies about John Kerry. He said what he said and the whole nation can see it come directly from his mouth.

If the Democrats do not gain a majority in either the house or the senate, this incident will be looked upon as a major factor. As a seasoned politician, Kerry should have had the discipline and the knowledge to know that as the standard bearer of the party in the last presidential campaign, his every word could be important.

In his zeal he has blundered. It will surely end any chance he has of gaining the nomination once again and it has the potential to mushroom into snatching defeat from the jaws of victory for the Democrats.

Sunday, October 29, 2006

R.I.P. Arnold "Red" Auerbach

It is almost two years to the day since I last saw Red. It was October 29th 2004, one day after the Sox had clinched the World Series. Red was appearing at a local Chinese restaurant promoting a book, Let Me Tell You a Story, written with John Feinstein.

I wanted to see Red in person to say thanks for the many memories I had of him and the Boston Celtics as a child but also for the impact he had on me in so many other ways growing up and the things that stuck with me as I reached adulthood and fatherhood. It was because of Red that sitting on the sofa watching basketball with my son became treasured memories. It was because of Red I spent ten years coaching kids in the fundamentals of the game and of life. I wonder who got more out of the experience, them or me.

I was a basketball fan, and an avid reader because of Red. My earliest memories of reading were of the Celtics exploits and Red's shenanigans. During basketball season there wasn't a day that went by that I didn't scour the Boston Globe for any word about our team.

Yes basketball is just a game and in the course of human history it has virtually no impact or importance however there are elements of the way in which Auerbach conducted his life and business that have impacted many an individual's life.

Boston in the sixties was not a place of much racial tolerance. There were racial divides that resulted in some ugly scenes as busing was being forced upon the region. These events were completely lost on Auerbach. As Boston and much of the country was resisting integration, Auerbach was a pioneer.

While the Red Sox were the last team in the majors to integrate, Auerbach was accomplishing the following: Drafted the first black player, Chuck Cooper into the NBA. He was the first coach ever to start an all black starting five and he appointed the first black coach in any sport when Bill Russell succeeded him as the Celtic head coach. Auerbach was about merit and achievement not about colors except one, Celtic green.

I have no doubt that Red has gone on to his reward.

Thursday, October 19, 2006

Capitulation at the Globe

Once again the Boston Globe has proven that their editorial board is in serious need of a major overhaul. Despite the overwhelming evidence that bribing North Korea is a policy that will fail to keep the North from expanding its weapons program and bribery will act as a catalyst for other countries to pursue the same type of nuclear blackmail, the Globe insists that only the U.S. has the resources to pay this blackmail and therefore should "cut that deal". http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/editorials/articles/2006/10/18/the_sanctions_fallacy/

The reasoning behind this capitulation is that despite the fact that the resolution was passed by the U.N Security Council and signed onto by China, there is doubt that the Chinese will act to enforce the provisions. The editorial complains that China is asking hard questions about the "terms of engagement" and golly gee, inspections of North Korean ships at sea might result in a "firefight".

Does the Globe seriously think that the Chinese are unable to fulfill this simple obligation under the terms of the council resolution? Why are they so quick to absolve the Chinese from any responsibility in reining in the North?

The stated reasoning is that China is terrified of destabilizing the North Koreans for fear of an influx of North Korean refugees into China. This seems a little hard to believe when China is a country of 1.3 billion and North Korea is a paltry 23 million.

The editorial concludes by saying "Only America can grant the package of energy supplies, economic assistance, and security assurances that the North consistently demands as the price for divesting itself of its nuclear and missile programs. Instead of imposing risky and futile sanctions, President Bush ought to be trying to cut that deal"

Are serious people writing this stuff? The Chinese can't give any security assurances to the North? Wasn't it the Chinese who intervened on behalf of the North in the fifties? Don't the Chinese have the largest standing army on the entire continent? As for energy, aren't the North's other major allies, the Russians, the largest oil producers in the world? As for economic considerations, three of the largest and most successful economies (China, Japan, South Korea) with balance of payments surpluses with the United States are next door neighbors of the North and have signed onto the resolution. If bribery is the solution, why isn't the Globe suggesting tax payers in those nations pick up the complete tab?

It is rumored that the New York Times is desperate to unload it's Boston Globe operation. We can only hope that this is true and that new owners can inject some critical and strategic thinking skills into the make up of the editorial staff.

Saturday, October 14, 2006

What the big money thinks

A week has gone by since the North Korean nuclear test. The major capitals of the world have been busy crafting a response. World politicians and pundits alike have been busy speculating on the significance of the test and are reacting with dire predictions.

The U.N. (Useless Nations) is busy crafting nuanced language and tepid responses to a nation and leader that is universally decried as a major nuisance. Behind the facade of concern is the usual suspects protecting their own interests. The Russians and Chinese are giving lip service to the United States and Japanese concerns over Dear Leader however, they react with clear resistance to any suggestion of decisive action against North Korea.

In order to get a real sense of the significance of the North Korean test on the United States one only need look at Wall Street. The money capital of the world reacted with a big yawn. In a week in which North Korea joined the nuclear club the Dow Jones Industrial average made a new record high.

The results were similar in Europe as the Financial Times Stock Exchange reached a five and one half year high as did the DAX index in Germany. The Nikkei in Tokyo reacted with a bit of a dip on Monday however it also finished the week up over 167 points to recover quite nicely.

Oil continued its decline and gold and platinum both had a relatively quiet week. The only major market that seemed to be a bit nervous was the U.S. bond market as the thirty year treasury yield finished the week at 4.93% which was up about 20 basis points. This was more as result of inflation remarks by Fed members than it was to any goings on regarding North Korea.

So the bottom line is that the really big money around the world reacted almost without notice to the North Koreans. That reaction comes from knowing the following. According to the CIA World Fact Book, the Republic of China exports go to the following places by percentage, US 21.4%, Hong Kong 16.3%, Japan 11%, South Korea 4.6%. When and if the North Koreans and Kim Jong IL threaten China's business plan, then the Chinese will squash him like the bug he is.

Monday, October 09, 2006

Are the Chinese nervous yet?

The world media is full of speculation this morning with regard to the significance of the North Korean nuclear test. Certainly the American media will be all a twitter about the failure of the administration to prevent this event. There will be talk of the success of the Carter initiative and the Clinton "deal' with the North.

Appeasement wasn't a success then and it and won't be a success now. Since the deep pockets of the United States is the audience that Kim Jong Il wants to reach but it is his neighbors that are the ones least entertained by his performance.

The Chinese were playing it coy right up until the last moment with a comment Saturday suggesting that the test could be avoided if the United States agreed to bi-lateral talks with the North Koreans. The Bush administration has refused to bite on this non starter outside of the Party of Six negotiations.

Despite Washington's bluster about refusing to tolerate a nuclear armed North, there is little or nothing we should do about it. The strategic playing field has changed in the region and it is up to the neighborhood to take care of its own business.

China is now the big dog in the region and they must assess what these latest developments have done to Chinese interests and regional security. With the North Koreans now making their nuclear bones how long will it be before the pacifism clause in the Japanese constitution is relegated to the dust bin of history? How will the Chinese react to a choice such as rein in Kim Jong IL or face a nuclear armed Japan?

The most compelling impact may be economic. Big money investment does not like instability. The Asia markets are being roiled by the test and in the long run continued belligerence by the North will definitely affect investment in China, Japan and South Korea.

So for the moment this is not our problem. If appeasement is what the region chooses as a method of dealing with the North then let's make sure it is the Chinese, Japanese and South Koreans who foot the bill. Since it is they who are directly affected by instability it is they who should be responsible for the outcome.

The Chinese still have some time to do the right things. The time for a decision is rapidly approaching however. The North Koreans show no sign of letting up in their drive to squeeze major economic concessions (blackmail) out of anyone willing to pay them. The Chinese can either pony up the money or take other more direct and forceful actions to control their client.

The next major provocation most assuredly will be the improvement of the North Korean launch capability. No President of the United States, Democratic or Republican will allow an intercontinental ballistic missile to be fueled and ready to go on a North Korean Launch pad.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Go Tigers

Once the Sox were eliminated from the pennant race there was only one thing that could make a Sox fan rest comfortably over the winter. Of course that something was to see the Evil Empire New York Yankees get knocked out. That dream came true yesterday when the $200 plus million dollar "best team ever" payroll finished an October humiliation with three straight losses to the Detroit Tigers.

Turncoat Johnny Damon was heard to say "we're still the best team, sometimes the best team doesn't win". Well for the sixth straight year the "best team" has gone down in flames and George Steinbrenner is left empty handed.

Joe Torre and Brian Cashman are a good manager and general manager respectively but let's hold on a minute before we enshrine them in Hall of Fame. For a team that can boast an all star at every position they have simply under achieved since their last World Series championship six years ago. Who knows what's in King George's mind but it could result in one or both of them being unemployed.

It is kind of ironic that Brian's last name is CASH MAN since that has been what he has thrown around for all these years. One thing that is apparent is that in order for the Yankees to actually return to greatness he will be forced to throw around even more cash.

The Yanks are getting old in the all important pitching department and some of their hitters have not achieved higher levels in the post steroid era. Add to that the inexplicable failure of Alex Rodriguez to hit in the post season and you have a winter of severe discontent for Yankee fans.

The Rodriguez meltdown led Dan Shaughnessey to dub him the "cooler". Speculation began immediately over ARod remaining in New York. He has an iron clad no-trade and his contract is so odious that only a few clubs could afford him. It seems ludicrous to suggest but maybe us Sox fans should hope that New York keeps him. After all, the year after Seattle got rid of him they won 116 games.

Or perhaps we should think about the possibility of a Manny for Arod trade? If we are going to be under achievers wouldn't you rather under achieve with Arod in your line up every day than Manny maybe getting out of bed to play?

In any event the Tigers have earned a place of honor and admiration in the heart of every Sox fan. It is only right and just that we should attach our affections to them and pray to the baseball gods all the way to a World Series victory.

Saturday, October 07, 2006

A good business decision

Tuesday night the school committee will be interviewing in open session, Katie Spinos the internal candidate for the superintendent's job. The candidate has been an employee of the system for the past 7 years in the position responsible for curriculum.

By most accounts she has had a stellar record within the system and has been advancing herself educationally. She has an under grad degree from B.C. and two masters degrees and is missing only her dissertation on her way to her doctorate.

There has been some weeping and moaning about the need for a "nation wide search" for a new superintendent with the teachers union being one of the main advocates. It will be interesting to see whether or not the teachers union is equally receptive to residents or the school committee the next time they select some one to lead their organization.

What this boils down to is a simple business decision. With the superintendent, the high school principal as well as the head of the guidance department announcing retirements, the community will be losing top people in the system. Hiring some one from within the system with a demonstrated track record makes perfect sense in maintaining some semblance of continuity as well as saving the time and expense of a search.

The option of a search does remain on the table however if Tuesday night does not go as I suspect. Ms. Spinos will be interviewed in open session by the committee and will also be asked unscreened questions from the residents of the community. It will be up to her to demonstrate that she is the obvious choice for the position.