When it comes to the Red Sox I am as superstitious as everybody else in the Sox Nation. I held off writing about them for most of the year for fear of jinxing them the way I did last year. Despite knowing better I couldn't resist and wrote a piece called I like our chances http://philgallagher.blogspot.com/2007/08/i-like-our-chances.html and sure enough shortly thereafter the 6 game lead the Sox had over the Yanks evaporated down to 2. Fortunately the club over came my bad judgement and finished in first and held the home field advantage through out the playoffs.
After that near miss I kept quiet even as the club went down 3 games to 1 against the upstart Indians. After winning game 5 and heading back to Boston, I wanted to shout at the top of my lungs that we had them just where we wanted them. There was no way the Indians could win, but I didn't say a word. I kept to my basic protocol. I wore the same uniform, jeans and SOX hoodie, I sat in the same place on the sofa, I made the same pre-game telephone calls and for the sake of my health, in crucial moments I shut the TV off.
So here we are against the Rockies up 3 games to 0 and I feel so confident that I have actually washed my uniform. No amount of jinxing is going to make a difference in this series. The Sox are the superior team and it is apparent. The starting pitching has been outstanding and the club is simply killing the ball. When the bats have failed (game 2 a 2 to 1 win)the bull pen has held the Rockies at bay.
With Jon Lester going tonight it is conceivable that the Sox could fashion their second World Series sweep. Even if they don't it is unlikely that the Rockies can survive another outing by the unhittable Josh Beckett in a game five.
Being a fan in Massachusetts is now truly an embarrassment of riches. The Sox are going to win the World Series, the Patriots are on a roll that has rarely been seen in the NFL, Boston College is sitting at number 2 in the college football world and the Best Celtic team in 15 plus years is about to hit the parquet on Friday night.
It is somewhat of an unsettling feeling, having nothing to complain about.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Saturday, October 20, 2007
So long Joe
As a die hard Red Sox fan it is easy to bid adieu to Joe Torre as manager of the Yankees. In his long tenure as skipper of the Bombers it seemed he rarely made any mistakes against us and maddeningly, he was always a gentlemen who clearly kept himself above the fray. He never seemed to be overly concerned about the ancient Yankee Red Sox rivalry. For him we were just another team that he vanquished more often than not.
There is simply no denying Joe's record of success with the Empire. He joined them in 1996 http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/torrejo01.shtml and won the World Series his first year, he went on to complete a remarkable run in 2000 by winning his fourth World Series in five years. Since that time it has been a serious dry spell. Although the Yanks have finished first in the division 10 out of 12 times and have made the playoffs each year during Torre's reign he has not won it all for seven years and this year finished behind the Red Sox in the division.
Against this back drop it was rather stunning to hear George Steinbrenner announce during the series with the Indians that Joe's job would be on the line if they didn't prevail over the Tribe. Well in true Steinbrenner fashion it turned out to be bluster as after a few days of hemming and hawing the Yankee management announced that Joe would be offered a one year deal at 5 million dollars with another 3 million of incentives if he reached the World Series. If the deal worked out it would be a nearly two million dollar raise over the 6 million that he received in the last year of his current three year deal. It is worth noting that Joe's current deal is worth twice what any other manager in baseball is making.
Well Joe was insulted and considered the offer a slap in the face and rejected it out of hand. Pardon my lack of manners but I find it rather insulting that Joe Torre is that much of a prima donna. Yes, all the things said about Joe as a manager are probably true, he is good with the players and the media. He has a great record. However, there is a lot more to this story. The main feature is that over the past seven years the Yankees have spent over a billion and a half dollars filling the Yankee roster with the best players that money can buy. More money spent than any other team in pro sports history.
The job of managing the Yankees doesn't include much heavy lifting. You have more coaches, the best facilities, the biggest crowds and a sure trading deadline acquisition to get you ready for the playoffs. Despite these advantages the Yankees have been beaten by lesser payrolls and quite frankly lesser talented teams for the past 7 years.
The one exception to this might be the 2004 Red Sox who also had an enormous payroll. In that series that Yankees had a 3 to 0 series lead and had their foot on the neck of the Red Sox yet ended up in a record setting collapse.
The fact of the matter is that with the Yankee resources, many a competent manager might have had the record that Torre had during his reign. It is useful to take a look at Torre's record with the Mets, Braves and Cardinals in his fourteen years prior to taking over the Yankees. It is a quite unremarkable, with only 1 division win during that time.
Certainly Torre has the right to go out under any circumstances that he chooses, however it is difficult to view him in a sympathetic light when he passes on a record setting paycheck simply because it has a performance clause attached to it. The average Joe attending Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park has to face that requirement every day.
There is simply no denying Joe's record of success with the Empire. He joined them in 1996 http://www.baseball-reference.com/managers/torrejo01.shtml and won the World Series his first year, he went on to complete a remarkable run in 2000 by winning his fourth World Series in five years. Since that time it has been a serious dry spell. Although the Yanks have finished first in the division 10 out of 12 times and have made the playoffs each year during Torre's reign he has not won it all for seven years and this year finished behind the Red Sox in the division.
Against this back drop it was rather stunning to hear George Steinbrenner announce during the series with the Indians that Joe's job would be on the line if they didn't prevail over the Tribe. Well in true Steinbrenner fashion it turned out to be bluster as after a few days of hemming and hawing the Yankee management announced that Joe would be offered a one year deal at 5 million dollars with another 3 million of incentives if he reached the World Series. If the deal worked out it would be a nearly two million dollar raise over the 6 million that he received in the last year of his current three year deal. It is worth noting that Joe's current deal is worth twice what any other manager in baseball is making.
Well Joe was insulted and considered the offer a slap in the face and rejected it out of hand. Pardon my lack of manners but I find it rather insulting that Joe Torre is that much of a prima donna. Yes, all the things said about Joe as a manager are probably true, he is good with the players and the media. He has a great record. However, there is a lot more to this story. The main feature is that over the past seven years the Yankees have spent over a billion and a half dollars filling the Yankee roster with the best players that money can buy. More money spent than any other team in pro sports history.
The job of managing the Yankees doesn't include much heavy lifting. You have more coaches, the best facilities, the biggest crowds and a sure trading deadline acquisition to get you ready for the playoffs. Despite these advantages the Yankees have been beaten by lesser payrolls and quite frankly lesser talented teams for the past 7 years.
The one exception to this might be the 2004 Red Sox who also had an enormous payroll. In that series that Yankees had a 3 to 0 series lead and had their foot on the neck of the Red Sox yet ended up in a record setting collapse.
The fact of the matter is that with the Yankee resources, many a competent manager might have had the record that Torre had during his reign. It is useful to take a look at Torre's record with the Mets, Braves and Cardinals in his fourteen years prior to taking over the Yankees. It is a quite unremarkable, with only 1 division win during that time.
Certainly Torre has the right to go out under any circumstances that he chooses, however it is difficult to view him in a sympathetic light when he passes on a record setting paycheck simply because it has a performance clause attached to it. The average Joe attending Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park has to face that requirement every day.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Thoughts on the economy
As we approach the 20th anniversary of Black Monday, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987) there will be inevitable comparisons between market conditions then and market conditions now. The first and most obvious is that at the end of that day the Dow stood at around 1739 which is certainly a far cry from the 13,892 that it closed at last night. Simple math shows a nice 8 fold increase over the last 20 years but the increase was not without some white knuckle events.
In no particular order and without judging the severity of the impact of each, we have experienced the following distressing events, Asian contagion, Russian default, Long Term Capital management, the Millennium bug, the Internet bubble/bust, Enron, Worldcom, September 11, 2001, Hurricane Katrina and now the sub prime crisis.
Despite all of these events during the intervening years we still are at or near all time highs in the equity markets. In addition, despite these events, we have seen the largest number ever of people of the world population leave the poverty level and domestically we have seen the largest increase in home ownership in history. Inflation is relatively low, interest rates are headed lower, unemployment is down and productivity is up.
With all these rosy condition why am I nervous? Well consider some other items as well, the dollar is low and headed lower, energy is at all time highs as are commodities such as food and raw materials including gold. Both the housing and auto industries are in recession. When have we ever had a combination of those conditions without the over all economy going into recession?
Judging from the earnings reports that are coming in from the financial industry it is possible that we are at the beginning of the sub prime damage as opposed to near the end. Despite all of this we seem to continue to roll along merrily.
What are the elements of the world economy that are contributing to continued optimism in the financial markets? Is the emergence of India and China as well as Nafta contributing so positively to our export business that the economy can be sustained with weakness in some of our major economic components? Is the old despicable adage that "war is good for business" the primary reason? Is a lower dollar an engine of export growth?
I haven't got a clue, but one thing I know for sure, taking a little money off the table is never a bad idea.
In no particular order and without judging the severity of the impact of each, we have experienced the following distressing events, Asian contagion, Russian default, Long Term Capital management, the Millennium bug, the Internet bubble/bust, Enron, Worldcom, September 11, 2001, Hurricane Katrina and now the sub prime crisis.
Despite all of these events during the intervening years we still are at or near all time highs in the equity markets. In addition, despite these events, we have seen the largest number ever of people of the world population leave the poverty level and domestically we have seen the largest increase in home ownership in history. Inflation is relatively low, interest rates are headed lower, unemployment is down and productivity is up.
With all these rosy condition why am I nervous? Well consider some other items as well, the dollar is low and headed lower, energy is at all time highs as are commodities such as food and raw materials including gold. Both the housing and auto industries are in recession. When have we ever had a combination of those conditions without the over all economy going into recession?
Judging from the earnings reports that are coming in from the financial industry it is possible that we are at the beginning of the sub prime damage as opposed to near the end. Despite all of this we seem to continue to roll along merrily.
What are the elements of the world economy that are contributing to continued optimism in the financial markets? Is the emergence of India and China as well as Nafta contributing so positively to our export business that the economy can be sustained with weakness in some of our major economic components? Is the old despicable adage that "war is good for business" the primary reason? Is a lower dollar an engine of export growth?
I haven't got a clue, but one thing I know for sure, taking a little money off the table is never a bad idea.
Monday, October 08, 2007
Sports action
A couple of weeks ago I was at a business event and the treasurer of the state was the guest speaker. His topic of conversation was his support for casino gambling in the Massachusetts. He focused on a variety of reasons why it would work and how much revenue it would bring in and how it wouldn't effect the most profitable lottery in the country.
During the Q&A session I submitted a question about the possibility of a sports book in the commonwealth. The reply was treated like a taboo. Sports betting was an unknown, fraught with societal problems such as addiction and corruption of men. Apparently little old ladies sitting in front of a slot machine banging in her social security check doesn't merit the same type of concern.
In fact, a casino is more detrimental for a variety of reasons. The main one however is the return to the player. A seasoned gambler would no more play some of the casino games than he would buy a lottery ticket with his stake. That's because he knows that the lottery is simply a tax on people who are bad at math
The sports gambler is a different breed than the card player or game of chance player. The primary difference is your interest in the particular sport. Not many game players grow up playing the games in high school nor is it possible for your family to follow a particular casino team. Some friends of mine can boast four generations of family members betting on the Red Sox.
So if revenue is the name of the game why not let all of the closet bettors contribute to the state coffers? Some grown up societies have legal sports gambling with out the countries going to Hell in a hand basket, why can't we?
Why would we bet anyway? Well let me reply hypothetically for legal reasons. It adds a bit of excitement to the game as well as validates an individual's knowledge of the game. I will use the Patriots this week end as an example.
The line at game time was 16, meaning the Patriots were favored to win by 16 points against the under dog Cleveland Browns. My hypothetical friend was sure that the Pats would win but was concerned about the large number of points against him. Never the less his football acumen convinced him of the Patriots superiority and bet them to win.
Now this is where the excitement comes in. On the opening drive Cleveland marches down the field and is about to score from the one yard line when Junior Seau makes an interception to thwart Cleveland. Things are looking up as the Pats rack up ten points and follow up with another ten in the second quarter. My friend has a smugness about him as things are looking good as the half ends 20 to zero.
The Pats play a sloppy third quarter failing to score in the third for the first time this year. Cleveland scores a field goal to cut the lead to 17. My friend is getting a little nervous.
Things deteriorate a little further when Cleveland opens the fourth quarter with a touchdown cutting the lead to 10. Tom Brady restores a little order by driving the team down the field and scores on a nice play to Ben Watson to make the lead 17 with 9:40 to go.
Still a lot of time but in the next nine minutes you have to figure the Pats can outplay Cleveland. Well the Browns refuse to go quietly and at 5;56 they score to cut lead back to 10 at 27 to 17. Our friend is now apoplectic. He knows that Belichik and Brady will put this one to bed by slowly driving down the field over the next five minutes and run out the clock.
The football gods are shining on him however as Brady is a bit to efficient and finds himself on the Cleveland 8 yard line with 1:56 to go. Surely this offensive machine called the New England Patriots will push home another score and every New England bettor will be delighted. Three rushes and an incomplete pass to Kyle Brady and the Browns take over at their own 4 with a paltry 52 seconds to go. There was an audible groan throughout the stadium as everyone taking the Patriots knows they won't cover the point spread.
Every one's fortunes turn on a dime when after Cleveland completes a 21 yard reception, our own hero Randall Gay strips the ball and runs into the end zone to return the margin to 17 at 34 to 17. The elation is interrupted for a moment as a replay is called to determine if indeed it was a fumble. Loud cheers erupt throughout the stadium as the ruling on the field stands!
Don't count your money yet as Cleveland takes over on their own 42 yard line with 42 seconds to go and immediately marches to the Patriots 10 yard line. With no time outs the Cleveland quarterback spikes the ball to halt the clock. It is now second down and goal and Cleveland gets 3 chances to pass the ball into the end zone. Cleveland then attempts 3 straight passes. After each pass, there was an audible sigh of relief as the margin of victory held to the 17 and all the bettors covered.
Are you telling me you can have that kind of fun at a slot machine?
During the Q&A session I submitted a question about the possibility of a sports book in the commonwealth. The reply was treated like a taboo. Sports betting was an unknown, fraught with societal problems such as addiction and corruption of men. Apparently little old ladies sitting in front of a slot machine banging in her social security check doesn't merit the same type of concern.
In fact, a casino is more detrimental for a variety of reasons. The main one however is the return to the player. A seasoned gambler would no more play some of the casino games than he would buy a lottery ticket with his stake. That's because he knows that the lottery is simply a tax on people who are bad at math
The sports gambler is a different breed than the card player or game of chance player. The primary difference is your interest in the particular sport. Not many game players grow up playing the games in high school nor is it possible for your family to follow a particular casino team. Some friends of mine can boast four generations of family members betting on the Red Sox.
So if revenue is the name of the game why not let all of the closet bettors contribute to the state coffers? Some grown up societies have legal sports gambling with out the countries going to Hell in a hand basket, why can't we?
Why would we bet anyway? Well let me reply hypothetically for legal reasons. It adds a bit of excitement to the game as well as validates an individual's knowledge of the game. I will use the Patriots this week end as an example.
The line at game time was 16, meaning the Patriots were favored to win by 16 points against the under dog Cleveland Browns. My hypothetical friend was sure that the Pats would win but was concerned about the large number of points against him. Never the less his football acumen convinced him of the Patriots superiority and bet them to win.
Now this is where the excitement comes in. On the opening drive Cleveland marches down the field and is about to score from the one yard line when Junior Seau makes an interception to thwart Cleveland. Things are looking up as the Pats rack up ten points and follow up with another ten in the second quarter. My friend has a smugness about him as things are looking good as the half ends 20 to zero.
The Pats play a sloppy third quarter failing to score in the third for the first time this year. Cleveland scores a field goal to cut the lead to 17. My friend is getting a little nervous.
Things deteriorate a little further when Cleveland opens the fourth quarter with a touchdown cutting the lead to 10. Tom Brady restores a little order by driving the team down the field and scores on a nice play to Ben Watson to make the lead 17 with 9:40 to go.
Still a lot of time but in the next nine minutes you have to figure the Pats can outplay Cleveland. Well the Browns refuse to go quietly and at 5;56 they score to cut lead back to 10 at 27 to 17. Our friend is now apoplectic. He knows that Belichik and Brady will put this one to bed by slowly driving down the field over the next five minutes and run out the clock.
The football gods are shining on him however as Brady is a bit to efficient and finds himself on the Cleveland 8 yard line with 1:56 to go. Surely this offensive machine called the New England Patriots will push home another score and every New England bettor will be delighted. Three rushes and an incomplete pass to Kyle Brady and the Browns take over at their own 4 with a paltry 52 seconds to go. There was an audible groan throughout the stadium as everyone taking the Patriots knows they won't cover the point spread.
Every one's fortunes turn on a dime when after Cleveland completes a 21 yard reception, our own hero Randall Gay strips the ball and runs into the end zone to return the margin to 17 at 34 to 17. The elation is interrupted for a moment as a replay is called to determine if indeed it was a fumble. Loud cheers erupt throughout the stadium as the ruling on the field stands!
Don't count your money yet as Cleveland takes over on their own 42 yard line with 42 seconds to go and immediately marches to the Patriots 10 yard line. With no time outs the Cleveland quarterback spikes the ball to halt the clock. It is now second down and goal and Cleveland gets 3 chances to pass the ball into the end zone. Cleveland then attempts 3 straight passes. After each pass, there was an audible sigh of relief as the margin of victory held to the 17 and all the bettors covered.
Are you telling me you can have that kind of fun at a slot machine?
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