The population of Iowa is about 2.9 million and represents almost exactly 1% of the U.S. population of 299 million. Of the Iowa population only about 1% take part in the Iowa caucuses. From over all election point of view the caucus results don't really prove much for the winners of the event. This is born out by a Boston Globe graph http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/01/05/nh_factor/ that shows the insignificance of a win in Iowa over the last nine presidential election cycles. During that time only 2 Iowa winners have gone on to the presidency while 7 New Hampshire winners have gone on to become President of the United States.
With those results in mind, it is a mystery why both parties continue to take the caucus seriously. Iowans on the other hand are holding onto their privileged position in the presidential process with all their might because the amount of money spent by candidates in the state amounts to one of the biggest industries. Mitt Romney might have been the biggest employer in Iowa for the past 6 months.
The biggest service that Iowans might perform is to pick out the losers rather than the ultimate winners. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd were caucus night withdrawals and on the Republican side Ron Paul looks like his 15 minutes is about over.
The inevitability of a Hillary Clinton nomination took a hard hit with her third place finish. What her 30% indicated was that when seen up close and personal on a daily basis, 70% of the Democratic players wanted someone else. This is no where near an end for Hillary but if her slide continues in New Hampshire it could be the death knell for her candidacy.
As of 12/31 she had an average 6.5%http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html#market lead in New Hampshire over Obama, however it seems that there is a palpable sense of a surge in his support. New Hampshire has moved to the left over the past decade as a lot of Massachusetts natives have fled North to escape the "Massachusetts Miracle" of high taxes, health care costs, tuition expense, housing and traffic. At this point, Obama is the darling of the "moonbat crowd", as Howie Carr likes to describe the liberal wing of the party.
The current Clinton spin is to harken back to Bill Clinton's first run where he became known as the "comeback kid" when his candidacy was revived in New Hampshire. However, a run away win by Obama after Clinton losing what was an almost insurmountable lead not to long ago would be a hard to deny indication that Clinton is a loser.
Not much was learned in Iowa on the Republican side other than evangelicals will vote for one of their own. In fairness to Huckabee he seems to be relaxed and likable and not at all intimidated by the handshaking or debate process. Huckabee has inserted himself into the race but has not dealt any knock out blows to McCain, Giuliani or Romney. Of the big four, only Romney runs the risk of a complete knock out in New Hampshire. If he does not win or finish in a close second in what is basically a favorite son election, then he is likely to be running for the vice presidential nomination the rest of the way.
I can't help feeling that Huckabee is the Republican version of Jimmy Carter. If he is indeed to become a major player let's hope that parallel is incorrect.
What conclusion can be drawn from the Iowa vote is that no real conclusions can be drawn. It is the very beginning of this race and now more players are potential winners than before we started. Clinton is not inevitable and Edwards and Obama smell blood in the water. Huckabee and McCain's stock has risen, Romney has fallen a bit and soon Giuliani will join the fray.
