North Korea’s attempt to launch a multi stage ballistic missile should be met with more than bombastic sound and fury from the West. Speaking sharply to the little dictator, Kim Jong Il is unlikely to deter him from seeking a delivery system for his reported four or five nukes in his stockpile.
North Korea’s modus operandi is becoming increasingly familiar. Be loud and threatening and provocative and the milk toast West led by the United States will come up with a variety of good reasons why we should pay him off with bribes. Based on his previous successes why not simply raise the stakes and get bigger bribes?
The bigger the threat he becomes then the bigger his payoff will be. The Taepodong-2 missile is what is being loaded with fuel on the launching pad under the guise of a launch of a communications satellite. The natural question you would ask is why the government of North Korea would be investing in missile technology to launch satellites when it is reported that the country is on the verge of another famine?
The answer of course is that what they are developing is a multi stage ballistic missile capable of hitting the United States. The Obama administration has tried to deter North Korea by threatening security council action against them. Perhaps we have even raised our voice. The American president said the U.S. will "take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that it can't threaten the safety and security of other countries with impunity."
Well last time we looked both the Russians and Chinese have vetoes at the UN Security Council and therefore any punitive action that would deter the North is unlikely. We can also look at any number of other world hot spots and come to the conclusion that the UN is a waste of good New York real estate.
The North Koreans can and will threaten stability in the region as long as they are rewarded for their juvenile behavior. Until they are slapped solidly they will use a strategy that works. It is inevitable that an action will have to be taken against them because the long term prospects are only of continued escalation.
How will the West react when the North's missile tests show increasing payload and range capability? Will the Japanese stand idly by while they not only have nukes but also a delivery system that works? Will the Japanese develop a nuclear deterrent on their own? What will happen when the North announces they are loading a nuke on a missile to keep it ready as a deterrent against American aggression? After all, the United States has many missiles ready to fire why can't the North Koreans.
The strategy so far has worked quite well for the North. They have stalled and negotiated little bits and pieces all the while advancing their technology. President Clinton thought he had a deal to bribe them into compliance with food and energy until they developed the bomb right under his nose. Bush thought he had a deal with the 6 nation talks but the North has reneged on each condition of that deal.
Now they have a bigger and better missile on the launch pad and they are threatening war and a "thunderbolt of retaliation" if anyone dares to shoot the missile down. Despite the fact that any payload will pass directly over Japanese territory, the North Koreans say this about any action by the Japanese. They will respond by "mercilessly dealing deadly blows," not only at Japan's anti-missile facilities but at "other major targets" as well. They would consider it an act of war.
The problem here is that the West continues to create its own problem. By strengthening Kim through economic bribery he stays in power still longer and escalates his demands further. By getting all excited and talking at the UN and pleading with the Chinese to intervene we only bring more gravity and validate Kim's world stage presence.
It is time to call this bluff and simply destroy his rocket where it stands. In a confrontation with words Kim gains more prestige. In a direct military confrontation with the West he is exposed as a blustering fraud. When a policy is proven to be ineffective year after year then it makes sense to try something new.
