The Patriots meet the Jets Sunday in the rubber match. The teams split the previous two engagements with each team failing to hold the home field advantage. This match up is filled with off field drama as both head coaches have a good deal of experience with the other coach's organization. Bill Belechik served as defensive coordinator under Bill Parcells in New York and Jets coach Eric Mangini served in the same capacity under Belechik last year for the Patriots.
As Belechik constantly points out, none of those things matter come Sunday. It is a new game with all the history and drama and previous results meaning nothing.
On paper and according to the bookies this should seem to be somewhat of a mismatch. Team statistics show the Patriot's with an impressive season long performance in a number of areas that make a telling difference. They rank 4th total first downs, 5th in third down conversion, 1st in fourth down conversions, 4th in total offensive plays and second in total points allowed. In the all important turnover ratio the Patriots are +8 while the Jets are even. The December record for the Pats has followed previous Belechik history as they went 4 and 1 down the stretch. The primary weakness was the passing game as Brady integrated almost a completely new roster of wide receivers. Early in the season Brady was hitting his passes in the low 50% range. By seasons end he had brought that up to nearly 62%.
The line at game time is likely to favor the Patriots by eight points. This seems like an unlikely outcome given the history between the two teams. The division rivals have seen enough of each other so that there is not a lot of mystery. However, the primary factor here is that the Patriots are simply that much better personnel wise than the Jets. Mangini and company have done a great job getting this far with a team that virtually no one figured was going to go much better than 8 and 8.
The primary keys to victory for the Patriots will be better protection for Brady and a solid running game. They may use a no huddle offense to prevent the Jets from making situational substitutions as well as quick counts. In recent games, Brady has been using the old spread offense with one back or an empty back field to spread the defense and open holes for his short passing game.
On defense, the weakness of Chad Pennington's throwing arm will be exploited by the Patriots secondary pressing the Jets receivers at the line of scrimmage. The Jets have the lowest attempts and completions of passes of 30 or more yards in the entire league. The Patriots front seven will bring a lot of pressure and with Wilfork returning from injury to the nose tackle position Pennington will have a problem stepping up in the pocket. Prediction: Patriots 27 Jets 10
In other games;
I love Parcells but Terrell Owens is loathsome. Seattle wins and sends the "Boys" home for an off season filled with finger pointing.
The red hot Eagles and Jeff Garcia prevail over the Giants
The Chief's Larry Johnson runs for 300 yards keeping Peyton Manning on the bench as the Colts porous defense is exploited.
