Yes it's about oil. Neither the republicans or democrats want to
stand up and yell it from the rafters but it is about oil. The soft
underbelly of the west in conflict with terrorists may ultimately be oil.
The intelligence may have been bad about weapons of mass destruction, Al
Qaeda may not have had extensive contacts with Saddam, they may not have
pursued uranium with Niger, and Iraq may have been contained in all aspects.
In the end oil may have been enough reason to invade.
For those of you who remember the embargo in the early
seventies and think perhaps it wasn't all that bad and we could certainly
weather another disruption, you might want to rethink that position.
Bloomberg recently published a report that said in July the world
for the first time had oil demand exceed production capabilities. Much has
changed since 1972 and the most major being the emergence of the Indian and
Chinese economies and their impact on world energy requirements
Just take a look at a map of the gulf region and consider the
importance of the states surrounding Iraq from an oil production standpoint.
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab
Emirates are all within a stones throw of our presence in Iraq. Taken
together these states represent nearly 70 % of remaining proven reserves of
oil. Any significant disruption of the production of that oil will bring
chaos to the world economies.
To say that there is some measure of political instability in the
region would be an understatement. Each has the potential of political
insurrection and could result in the coming to power of regimes that are in
direct contrast to our best interests.
It is fine to stand for political ideals of self-determination and
non-interference but what happens if political events in this region result
in severe upheaval which effect our ability to maintain reasonable economic
conditions in the US and her main western allies? What happens particularly
in Saudi Arabia if the monarchy is threatened by internal insurrection and
results in a regime which views oil as a weapon of Allah against the
infidels?
In reality it would not be necessary to actually topple any of
these regimes to bring a great deal of economic pressure and social upheaval
on the west. A long guerilla terrorist style campaign against oil refining,
production and storage capabilities might be all that would be necessary. In
that event take a look in your driveway and think how good that SUV will
look as a planter.
This potential for mischief is going to be in place for the
foreseeable future. There is however a three pronged strategy, which the US
must vigorously pursue in order to prevent any unsavory developments.
We must maintain a strong and impregnable military presence in the
gulf; we must be successful in stabilizing Iraq even if that results in an
Islamic theocracy coming to power. We can tolerate that as long as that new
leadership understands that we will not allow any type of embargo against
the west.
It would not require any direct military intervention to convince
any new government in the gulf of our determination in this. A simple
embargo of our own would be sufficient. Fine if you don't want to sell us oil,
we will simply prevent you from selling it to anyone else.
We must convince Americans that this is a major threat to our well
being. Everyone at every level must begin the process of eliminating our
dependence on foreign sources of energy. The smallest things can make a
difference in this battle. Drive slower, turn the heat down, turn some
lights off.
Most importantly we must motivate government to aggressively pursue
alternative sources of energy and ultimately a new energy source as our
primary strategic concern. We will be more secure as a nation and freer to
pursue more liberal and generous pursuits in our relations with other
countries as soon as it is not all about oil.
