Today's news regarding the reported pending resignation of Secretary of State Colin Powell is not particularly good news for American foreign policy. Given the current imminent changes in the players and potential for positive developments in the Middle East it is also somewhat surprising and disappointing that Secretary Powell would leave his post at this point.
With the death of Arafat and the impending elections by the Palestinians it would appear that a window of opportunity is opening in the peace process. President Bush who to this point has been disengaged from the process has indicated a willingness to spend "political capital" in trying to finally bring about a peace deal. During the campaign he had made it clear that he supported a two state solution to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and with a new term ahead of him and a dramatically changing landscape in the Middle east it would seem as though now could be the time for making some lasting progress.
Nothing in the area is predictable however and the main concern at this point is the Palestinian succession to Arafat. Are the moderates in ascendancy in the PLO leadership or are we going to see a more militant faction take legitimate political control? Hamas is the primary concern and main political threat. Although most commonly known as the primary provider of suicide bombers, Hamas is also an organized political operation that has been building strength with the electorate as a result of its having provided a variety of social services in the region. If Hamas does gain legitimate political power are they likely to continue a campaign of violence or engage in constructive dialogue with Israel and the Quartet?
The Quartet is the United States, United Nations, European Union and Russia who together are responsible for the drafting of the three phase "Roadmap" to peace. Like any long journey the first step is the most important and so it is with the "Roadmap". The primary condition of phase one is for "the Palestinians to undertake an unconditional cessation of violence."
Both sides have difficult hurdles to meet to initially get the process underway. Although appearing simple in writing, instituting such requirements will be difficult. The following initial requirements are taken from the State Department release of April 30 2003.
"Palestinian leadership issues unequivocal statements reiterating Israel's right to exist in peace and security and calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire to end armed activity and all acts of violence against Israelis anywhere. All official Palestinian institutions end incitement against Israel".
"Israeli leadership issues unequivocal statement affirming its commitment to the two state-vision of an independent, viable sovereign Palestinian state living in peace and security alongside Israel, as expressed by President Bush, and calling for an immediate end to violence against Palestinians everywhere. All official Israeli institutions end incitement against Palestinians”.
Given the historic animus between the two peoples is someone willing to be the first to say and do such things on both sides?
This may be another false alarm or perhaps it is the very beginning of an historic achievement. It is perhaps made a more difficult task now that Secretary Powell will not be leading the United States effort to bring peace to this tortured area of the world.
There has been some speculation as to his successor and hopefully for all the parties involved that person will have the international stature enjoyed by Secretary Powell.
