It is amazing what the impact has been on the average Red Sox zealot in the post world series victory season. Under normal circumstances the faithful would be near apoplexy over the fact that the Sox are 3 games out of first place after 40% of the season has passed. Not so this year. Most everyone I talk with in Sox nation is quite serene about our current position. "We are 3 back and not playing our best ball yet" is the common refrain. More important than how far back is who is in front of us. No one really thinks the Orioles can sustain the lead once the hot weather comes and the Sox start hitting the ball over the sand lot. Adding to the confidence of the fan is that the Yankees seem to be coming to earth. Isn't it great that a 200 million plus payroll is currently mired in fourth place one game under .500?
So with an air of supreme confidence let's take a look at our club after 64 games played in the current season and briefly assess the performance to date and speculate on the prospects going forward.
On the positive side we can look at a relatively good year so far in the injury department. Sure Schilling has been hurt and David Wells missed a few games with a sore foot but for the most part the rest of the line up has been injury free. There is some concern that Keith Foulke might have some back problems but he has had this in the past without major loss of effectiveness.
The offensive side of the equation so far has been about what should be expected. This is a club that can flat out kill the ball. Johnny Damon has continued his excellent play as he has been at or near the top in batting average and on base percentage. David Ortiz continues his assault on the ball with 16 home runs and 52 RBI's and certainly projects out to another monster season over the 162 game schedule. Jason Varitek has combined his usual defensive and leadership performance with what may project out to be a career year for him at the plate. At this point he has amassed 11 home runs and a .326 batting average. Trot Nixon and Bill Mueller have turned in workman like seasons so far in right field and third base respectively. These two along with Varitek seem to embody a no nonsense workmen like attitude that is the cornerstone of any winning clubhouse.
What makes the offensive potential of the club scary going forward is the fact that several of the major hitters have gotten off to sluggish starts. Manny Ramirez has turned in some good power numbers with 14 home runs and 50 RBI however he has only hit at a very un-Manny like .256. It is hard to imagine that the best right handed hitter in the American League is going to continue at that pace. Edgar Renteria, this year's major free agent acquisition at short stop had gotten off to a miserable start until he went on a tear in the last Yankee series. With each passing day his comfort level will increase and he is sure to return to the norm which translates into one of the best hitters at his position in the majors. Typically frigid starting Kevin Millar has begun to hit the ball with authority. Similar to last year when the Sox acquired Doug Mientkiewicz, the addition of John Olerude at first base seems to have brought out Millar's competitive spirit.
The key of course to this year's fortunes rest with the pitching staff. There have been two very pleasant surprises so far. Matt Clement appears to be a certified horse. He is 7 and 1 to date with a 3.70 ERA and 69 strike outs in 14 starts. Although only having 7 starts to date it looks as though Theo's gamble on free agent Wade Miller was cheap money well spent. David Well's has been pretty much as advertised. He is 5 and 4 to date however his last two efforts have been things of beauty. He shut out the Cardinals and last night gave up one hit in 7 brilliant innings against the Reds. Wells is a money pitcher and as his foot completely heals we are likely to see more of this type of effort. Bronson Arroyo and Tim Wakefield round out the starting staff and have been steady if unspectacular to date. The question mark is when will Schilling return? If he is healthy and back by the all star break and has time to round into form he would be an enormous boost to the club. In addition Theo has some money left over for a stretch run acquisition and if the Yankees are out of it there would be one deep pocket competitor out of the running for any trading deadline star players on the market.
The one major area of concern has been the bull pen. What was a major strength of the club has become a source of weakness. Foulke has been shaky in late innings and Embree has been eminently hittable. Theo expressed his displeasure this week by stating the obvious, "if the job isn't getting done there will be some changes". The bull pen is perhaps the place where Theo might spend some money if Schilling's able to return at or near his historic effectiveness.
All in all I like our chances. We are within a week end series of catching the Orioles and the Yankee's age might finally be catching up to them. Don't count on it however. It is likely that the standings will revert to form and we will have a pitched battle down to the end of the season between the Sox and Yanks. One ominous develoment this year is the play of the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins. It is entirely possible that this year the wild card will not come from our division. This makes it vitally important that we win the division outright. No worries though, we are the champions until some one takes it from us!
