Saturday, July 09, 2005

Demographics and the Democrats

Demographics is the "statistical characteristics of human populations". The term is used quite frequently in the sales business to identify particular markets. We baby boomers are no strangers to the term since our very first arrivals in the maternity wards have skewed the demographics of the country with every passing phase of our maturity. From baby carriages, disposable diapers, school buildings, colleges and now coming up to Social security have all felt the impact of an enormous bulge in a particular aspect of society as we make our way from cradle to grave.

All along the way there has been some sort of social upheaval as a result of the impact this group has on American society. None of that impact may be more apparent than what is happening in the world of American politics. The country had been gradually swinging to a more conservative orientation and that swing is likely to accelerate over the next two decades. During that period of time according the the U.S. Census Bureau the number of Americans over 65 years of age will swell from 33 million to nearly 54 million.

There are two elements of this transition that the Democrat's will have to address from the stand point of marketing party philosophy. As we grow older and have passed through life there are two defining moments for adults. Both involve children, the first is having your own and the second is your children having their own. These two events invariably make the grand parents wary of life's challenges. That experience leads to a more cautious approach to every aspect of life and hence a more personal conservatism.

The second element of the transition of the baby boomers is that again according the U.S. Census Bureau, older Americans vote in large numbers. The statistics point out an enormous differential in voting age groups. Of the over 65 population, 78% are registered to vote and of that percentage more than 65% reported having cast a ballot. Contrast this to the 25 to 34 age group which 58% are reported registered and only 31% report having voted.

An argument can be made that it is apparent that the country has already swung right by virtue of the election results in recent years. The presidency , both houses of congress and the governors seat in a majority of states are now held by Republicans. This was once unthinkable when we were kids.

Not only are the boomers changing the political landscape of the country but so to has the aging of the greatest generation of Americans accelerated the change. After age 75, statistics show a drop off of voter participation. In addition, with each passing day more and more Rooseveltian era Democrats are passing on to their heavenly reward.

These changes are inexorable and unless the Democratic Party finds ways in which to fit the party message to the needs of the new market realities for political ideas then the party is going to continue it's inevitable downward slide.