There is only a week left in the local election season and for most of us it is seven days to many. You can only stand on a street corner holding a sign in the cold for so long before you wish you were doing anything else, even work!
This year has been about as exciting as a small town election can get. The race for selectman has featured 6 candidates vying for two slots. Al Fay is the only incumbent as Joe Impemba has retired after 15 years to run for the planning board. The other five candidates are John Keene, Ralph Patuto, Virginia Mooney, Walter Zenkin and Rocky Arsenault.
Coming into the run I had handicapped the race in order of projected finish this way; Ralph Patuto topping the ticket based on his strong but losing showing two years ago. Al Fay coming in second primarily because of his ability to mount a very strong campaign. Even though there were a number of issues to attack an incumbent on this year, the large number of candidates makes it likely that Fay's core support will be substantial enough to give him one of the two seats.
I picked John Keene to finish third primarily because he is a well known individual in town with many connections none of who have a bad word to say about him. He has lived here his whole life, run a successful business and managed not to offend to many people along the way. His lack of political experience in campaigning as well as lack of experience in serving may hold him back this time.
Early in the campaign I had picked Walter Zenkin to be a potential competitor for a top spot however I don't believe he was able to tap into any anti incumbent fervor nor was he able to transform his government experience into an advantage. He has been an effective leader in capital budget items and has experience at town meeting. Unfortunately, during the televised debates that will be running endlessly this week, he had a bit of stage fright and did not present his issues as well as he might have.
Virginia Mooney could be a wild card in the race although I doubt it. She is the only candidate in the race that has consistently criticized the incumbent board for poor performance. She may yet strike a chord of discontent but the problem for Ginny is that she has been saying the same exact things for the past 31 times that she has run for the board. She did win once in 1988 but proved to be ineffective in the position and was quickly defeated the next time out for re-election.
Rocky Arsenault got signatures enough to get himself on the ballot yet has done nothing that I am aware of that would indicate that he is a serious candidate. He did not submit an announcement, show up to any of the candidate forums, produce any literature , bumper stickers or signs. I don't think I am going out on a limb to predict that he won't be a factor.
In the contested school committee race I have incumbent Sharon Sotiros defeating new comer Michael Desimone. Sotiros is just finishing her first term on the school committee. Prior to her election she had served on the Ways and Means Committee. Michael Desimone has run a very strong campaign and if he is not successful this year he is certainly a candidate to watch in the future since it is apparent that he has a core of motivated supporters and he is very solid as a campaigner as well as in his personal appearances at candidate forums.
The question here is whether or not there is substantial enough reasons to defeat Sharon? The school department has had building issues however the school committee has been desperately seeking answers. They have worked as hard as possible to find solutions. On the education side it would appear that the school system is making very solid progress in MCAS scores and in general has been highly regarded from a management standpoint. The top leadership of the administration has brought stability and confidence to the table.
The teacher contract is a big question mark. Is Desimone in the race because the school committee attempted to hold the line against aggressive union demands? Many in town have questioned the over all strategy of the union. The whole mantra of how under appreciated the teachers are simply does not stand up under scrutiny. In the final analysis they held out for over a year for what they would have gotten in the beginning. During the year of demonstrations did they raise any voter animosity toward them? Or worse did it result in people arriving at the conclusion the union equates teacher appreciation and respect with higher pay raises than anyone else got?
Now let me qualify my predictions by including a couple of wild card items that could skew the races.
In the school committee race, is the group of hockey parents an emerging group with political muscle? This is a young group of parents and is the worker base of Desimone's campaign. The voting demographics of this age group in the past not been particularly strong. Will anti teacher union back lash result in solid support for Sotiros? Does Sotiros continue to enjoy solid support at the senior citizens center?
An interesting observation here is the results at the Democratic Party caucuses that were held several weeks ago. In a field of political operatives vying for delegate slots to the convention, Sotiros handily won election in a field of seasoned political operatives.
In the Selectmen's race the only real concern is whether or not Fay will be "Woburnized". This is a reference to Woburn Mayor John Curran who after a fairly strong campaign against a relative newcomer was soundly defeated. The primary reason was voter backlash against tax increases. The Woburn increase was 17% which, by the way pales in comparison to the 24% increase Burlington voters received.
The other wild card is the town center overlay referendum. Is this issue energizing the electorate enough to substantially raise voter turnout? I believe the referendum itself will not over turn the results of the town meeting vote. My main line of thinking is that if you have volunteer groups that labor long and hard to bring forward legislation and it goes through an arduous approval process with little opposition why would the electorate not support them? How can you expect people to take on these roles if after a great deal of their time and effort you repudiate their conclusions? In any event it will result in some impact n the races and I project the turnout to be 37% or approximately 5100 voters.
Let me close with full disclosure. I am supporting Fay for re-election for a variety of reasons. I have worked with him and against him for the past 25 years or so in a variety of different capacities. I was on the Board of Selectmen when he was the fire prevention officer and later as the union president. In those instances I found him to be extremely competent as a worker as well as a very worthy advocate for his union and a creative adversary.
In later years while he was on the board I worked against him on a number of issues. Despite being very vocal in opposition to him, when I came to the conclusion to run for office last year he was solidly in my camp and worked tirelessly for my election. More importantly than a political alliance is that Al Fay is a genuine "townie". He loves this place and I believe makes his decisions based on what is good for the people who live and work here.
