Taepodong-2 is the name of the ballistic missile that North Korea reportedly has fueled and ready on the launch pad. If North Korea really has the 5 or 6 nuclear warheads routinely reported in the press and suddenly demonstrates the ability to throw one of those warheads a great distance what should the reaction be of the United States and her Asian allies?
This development has resulted in some rather strange pronouncements from unlikely sources. Former Clinton administration Secretary of defense William Perry and assistant Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter wrote in the Washington Post " the United States should immediately make clear its intention to strike and destroy the North Korean Taepodong missile before it can be launched." This morning former Vice President Walter Mondale called for similar action. Mondale said that "the United States should tell North Korea to dismantle the missile - and if it doesn't we are going to take it out." http://kstp.com/article/stories/S17144.html?cat=1
There is no explanation from these people as to why when they were in power, they proposed appeasement as a preferred solution to the North Koreans desire to acquire both nuclear and ballistic missile capability instead of a decisive military solution. The disclosure of the existence of the missile is not a new development. The North Koreans have previously test fired an earlier version of the missile and if we follow the development of our own missile program it is only natural to expect that the next generation of any test sequence is going to be bigger and better with more payload and range capability. The original test occurred around September 1st of 1998 and was conducted over Japan.
What was interesting about the timing of the test was that it took place while the North Koreans were involved in discussions with the U.S., Japan and others about incentives to entice them to stop their nuclear program. Some members of the administration who advocated appeasement at that time were apparently unimpressed by a two stage ballistic missile being fired over the sovereign territory of one of our most important allies.http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/161513.stm
As we know those negotiations were concluded and the North received assurances of tons of fuel and food aid as well as the construction of two light water nuclear reactors. Some still tout this as a major negotiating victory for the United States and an example of how we should manage the behavior of rogue states. The outcome of that agreement was that several years later the North Koreans announced the possession of nuclear weapons.
The North Koreans have a long history of brinkmanship and have found it to be quite profitable for them to be on the minds of both their Asian neighbors and the United States. The Bush administration has not been as responsive to the North Korean bluster. Bush has refused direct talks with the North, instead preferring to include the nations whose security interests are most threatened by a nuclear armed and wholly unpredictable neighbor. This strategy seems to be most upsetting to the North Koreans and seems to be forcing "Dear Leader Kim Jong Il" into higher and higher stakes bluffing and posturing.
How long will it be before he makes a fatal mistake? Could the test firing of this missile be the straw that breaks the camel's back? The real power in the region and the historic supporter of the North has been the People's Republic of China. It was long in the Chinese interests to have an unpredictable North creating instability on the Korean Peninsula. It made the Japanese nervous and having a large troop presence in South Korea continually sapped the military strength of the United States.
Much has changed in the region over the last decade. The Chinese have discovered that doing business with the capitalists has a great deal of reward. Namely, a huge balance of payments surplus and a resulting lifting of the standard of living of the entire country. Can the Chinese afford to have that new prosperity and the relationship with their biggest trading partners threatened by a rather insignificant client state?
A successful test firing of a multi stage ballistic missile by the North Koreans will most certainly result in the Japanese arming themselves with a missile defense system as well as significantly upgrading their offensive capability. The security burden in the region will dramatically shift from the United States defense budget to that of the Japanese. A similar reaction will occur in Taiwan and perhaps even the South Koreans might wake up to the threat.
It might just be worth it to see what the implications are and the strategic result is of a successful testing of this missile.
