There has been a great deal of speculation as to when, where and how another terrorist attack might come in this country. The United States has spent a great deal of time and energy since 9/11 to insulate the U.S. homeland from a repeat of the outrage of the Bin Laden/Saudi terrorist gang attack. The significance of the event cannot be under estimated in terms of the human, political and economic impact that was had on the United States. The geopolitical fall out as a result included the invasions of both Afghanistan and Iraq and almost 6 years after the attack the reverberations are still being felt.
From a strategic stand point it is difficult to assess what was gained by the forces who supported and launched the attack. It did prove that the United States was not invincible and that democracies as a whole have basic tenets that make them more vulnerable to terror than police states do. The attacks did nothing however to increase the attackers wealth or influence or permanently settle any political scores. An argument could be made that the 9/11 attacks have actually strengthened the United States in many ways.
Our economy has recovered quite nicely with corporate profits and stock market driven 401k's alike reaching new highs. Our security vulnerabilities, although many, have been significantly addressed in almost every walk of life. On the military scene our forces have routed the organized opposition and we hold strong military positions in places that have significant strategic interest. On the world stage many Americans fret about polls showing a drop in respect for our country but with all due respect, do poll numbers have any importance what so ever?
Contrast this with what is going on across Bin Laden's world. He may be alive but I bet his living conditions are not ones of splendor.The Middle East is in flames. Lebanon is close to civil war. The West bank and Gaza have Hamas and Fatah murdering one another and in Iraq it is no longer the American soldier who is the primary target. More Iraqi Sunni and Shia die from sectarian violence in a month than the United States suffered in casualties in the entire war. Let's be clear. The war in Iraq is over and we won. It is the Iraqis themselves who are now responsible for sorting out the rest of the situation.
There is one area in which the United States still has an Achilles heel. One single effective terrorist strike on that heel could significantly change the world stage not only here but in all the Western democracies. That target is not here in the United States. That place that could hurt us the most is in Saudi Arabia.
Who would, why would they and where would such an attack happen? The who is very simple. Iran has the most to gain in a trifecta of areas if Saudi Arabian oil production was severely curtailed. Those three areas are economic, political and religious.
The why is very simple as well. Recent reports indicate that Iran may have a dwindling supply of oil. In order to maximize the revenue from that oil Iran could pump more or they could pump less but get a much higher price for the remaining amount that they have. Worldwide demand alone could accomplish part of this task but what impact would a production cut of say 10 or 15% have on world prices? A doubling or tripling of today's 58 dollars per barrel is possible. Currently the Saudis alone have the most control over this price. A reduction in Saudi influence is an automatic gain for the Iranians.
Some might say that the rapid expansion of alternative fuels in the U.S and other countries can off set this impact. Maybe in the future but certainly not today. Even with the explosive growth of ethanol production, the U.S is scheduled to produce about 292,000 barrels per day http://www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistics/#A. Even with an expected 50% increase in this production next year it is still a mere drop in the bucket when compared to the 9.1 million barrels per day of U.S. gasoline consumption and over all 20 million barrel per day U.S. appetite for petroleum. http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/quickfacts/quickoil.html
The religious implications of an Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia are cloudy and are more complex than this writer could begin to address. What is clear is that the Shia have long been considered heretics and are despised in certain places in the Middle East. Would a crippling blow against the bastion of Sunni dominance be cheered by the long oppressed Shia? http://www.islamfortoday.com/shia.htm
The where of such an attack has long been thought to be the Straits of Hormuz. This is a two mile wide waterway at the end of the Arabian/Persian Gulf. It has long been thought that the sinking of a super tanker or some other such event might block the waterway and prevent 50% of the worlds oil production from leaving the Gulf. In a 1984 film, Countdown to Looking Glass http://imdb.com/title/tt0087090/, Omani gun boats trying to blockade the Gulf precipitated a nuclear exchange between the U.S. and the then Soviet Union.
The logistics of such an operation would appear to be nearly impossible. The U.S Navy presence in the area and the sheer size of the straits would make this scenario implausible. A much more likely target is the Abqaiq processing facility through which two thirds of all Saudi production passes through. http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/saudi.html
The distance from Iran to the heart of Saudi production capability is only the width of the Gulf which in some case is roughly one hundred and fifty miles. What complicates the matter from a defense standpoint is that Iran has a coast line of over 500 miles along this waterway. The Iranians have already demonstrated missle capability sufficient to bridge this distance. A number of conventional explosions in the area could interrupt production for months and throw the democracies into chaos. A small nuclear airburst would set the area of like a volcano and burn for who knows how long. The result would be life changing in the West for years.
