I should know better that when writing about or discussing the Red Sox that it is taboo to make any predictions. Last week they were resting comfortably atop the American league East by 3 games when I had the temerity to be a tad to optimistic. Today they are two and a half behind the Yankees and look like they can't hit their way out of a paper bag. If the Yanks trade for Roy Halliday it will be a very interesting October.
We can at least thank Professor Gates and Sargent Crowley for elevating a minor issue into something big enough to knock Michael Jackson's death off of the front pages. The Jackson story was an endless string of media over kill. The tipping point for me occurred one morning last week when Robin and Diane on Good Morning America cut to a reporter who breathlessly explained that according to his sister Latoya, Michael would be buried with one glove! Now that's the type of hard hitting reporting we have come to count on.
The Gates episode has taken on a life of its own. Again this morning, the Globe has the front page above the fold filled with Gates related stories. The issue took on new life Thursday when President Obama, after acknowledging that he did not have all the facts, then stated that the Cambridge police acted "stupidly."
He has been back pedaling ever since to the spot now where he has invited Sargent Crowley and Professor Gates to the White House to share a beer. One thing this proves is that the White House polling office is nimble enough to measure a blunder pretty quickly.
Gates of course is the beneficiary of all of this. Despite the number of times he is referred to as an eminent scholar, he is a relatively obscure figure in Massachusetts and the nation. Not obscure you say? Well how is it that his own neighbor did not recognize him and apparently is the one making the 911 call reporting him breaking into his own house? To add insult to injury, she was an employee of the Harvard Magazine which had previously done an article on the professor.
He is in a position now to profit handsomely by playing the race card. Racial profiling was brought up immediately yet how is Crowley guilty of racial profiling when responding to a 911 call? No matter what color person was in the house, Crowley followed the proper protocol, he identified the person and then asked if anyone else was in the house. Gates responded in a way that is guaranteed to get a person of any color arrested.
If you are uncooperative and scream at a cop "do you know who I am?" then nine times out of ten the cop will respond "no but let's go down to the station and find out."
Sargent Crowley could be criticized for being to aggressive by not letting a thin skinned, typically arrogant Harvard professor type get away with some mouthiness however the black patrolmen that was with Crowley at the scene backed up his actions 100%.
All of this was a major distraction from what is going on in Washington. President Obama early in the week had a victory when the senate killed funding for seven more F-22 air superiority fighter planes. It is just the type of weapon the Air Force loves but is not really suited for the real world of modern day combat. The most effective air weapon in the past three military engagements has been the military's least expensive air craft. The A-10 has done more damage to the enemy then all the air superiority fighters combined.
The president did not do so well on the health care front however. Obamacare is dead for the moment and in all likelihood may suffer the same fate as Hillary care. The week was marked by pronouncements by Rahm Emanuel and Nancy Pelosi that a vote would be taken in the house and Obamacare would be advanced. A solid block of Republicans can't derail the plan but if you add in 45 or 50 Democrats it is going no where. That is the current state of affairs as the Blue Dogs in Obama's own party are the ones that are blocking the legislation.
The Congressional Budget Office added fuel to the fire this week. The Director, Doug Elmendorf, poked holes in the proponents theory that some how government controlled health care would reduce health care costs. President Obama did not help himself when responding to a question about whether or not a person could keep their current private plan when explained that he hadn't read the house version.
So despite the president's urgings it is unlikely that the congress will vote on this legislation before the break. It is even more unlikely they will vote for it after they hear from their constituents when they return home. The central question that should be asked of all of them is this "is congress and the president going to have the same health care plan as the rest of us?"
Another of the president's major initiatives, Cap and Trade (cap and tax) climate legislation is also stymied for the moment. This decision is likely to meet geographic resistance as opposed to party line resistance. Coal provides more than half of U.S. electricity, and 25 states get more than 50% of their electricity from conventional coal-fired generation. In Ohio, it totals 86%, according to the Energy Information Administration. Ratepayers in Indiana (94%), Missouri (85%), New Mexico
(80%), Pennsylvania (56%), West Virginia (98%) and Wyoming (95%) and others are going to bear the brunt of the penalties for emissions.
Further problems are coming from inside and outside the US. India this week announced that they would not have anything to do with reducing carbon emissions. With other nations voicing concerns, unilateral action by the United States would seem to be expensive and foolhardy. The house passed the bill by only six votes. That small a margin indicates that it is surely dead in the senate.
The bloom is not completely off the Obama rose as of yet but there are some ominous indications in the polling area. The Rasmussen tracking poll has him below 50% for the first time. This is one or two points below where Nixon was in a comparable time frame in his presidency. He better get some pictures of him on vacation playing with the kids on Martha's Vineyard as soon as possible.
Speaking of bloom coming off the rose, how about our own Governor Patrick? Apparently the governor is in some big polling trouble in the commonwealth as various people are lining up to take a shot at him. Treasurer Tim Cahill recently announced his intentions to change his affiliation to independent and consider a campaign for governor. No sooner was the ink dry on that story when Charles D. Baker who is President and CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Inc. announced that he would be in the race on the Republican side along with Christy Mihos.
If Patrick is in trouble with voters, at first blush it would seem that Cahill being in the race as an independent would benefit Patrick by siphoning off votes away from the Republicans. If Cahill were to run as an independent it would indicate that he believes he cannot get the required 15% of delegate votes at the Patrick dominated state democratic convention to get on a democratic primary ballot.
Cahill may have made a strategic error here since no sooner did he make his intentions known when Steve Grossman announced he would be in the race for treasurer. If Cahill runs for re-election for treasurer he has needlessly made the job more difficult by attracting a well heeled opponent. He may conclude that being treasurer is better than being a defeated gubernatorial candidate. After all, Mihos ran as an independent and garnered about 7% of the vote last time around.
