Tomorrow’s game between the Patriot’s and Colt’s has received a great deal of attention as the marquee match-up of the weekend NFL playoffs. Most of the attention has revolved around Colt’s quarterback Peyton Manning who is in the midst of his second NFL most valuable player season. There is no denying Manning’s achievements in breaking Dan Marino’s single season passing touchdown record and what he contributes to an explosive Colt’s offense.
The Colt’s are indeed an impressive offensive machine. They have 3 wide receivers in Wayne, Harrison and Stokley who have garnered more than 1000 yards each in receptions. In addition the Colt’s have a running back, who has had a wonderful year rushing for over 1500 yards in Edgerrin James. They are a balanced squad with many weapons and are fresh off a destruction of the Denver Broncos last week. So should we throw in the towel and simply award the awesome Colt’s the game? Of course not because pre-game hype and speculation is just that, pre-game hype and speculation.
As you know this team is not one that we are unfamiliar with. Last year’s Patriot Superbowl run had to go through the Colt’s and if the NFL champion Patriots are to repeat this may be the key game.
Despite what you may be reading in the national press, the Patriots are actually favored in this game for a variety of reasons. Despite Manning’s personal achievements he has not fared well against our club and Bill Belichik. He is winless in Foxboro and has always been challenged by the defensive schemes of the Patriot coaching staff. Schemes are one thing and performance is another. The Patriots are not the Broncos. Despite having an injured secondary the Patriots are big, fast, strong, deep and experienced.
Add to the defense of the Patriots the home field advantage. The difference is more than just a partisan fan base screaming their lungs out. The Colt’s are a dome team and in the NFL dome teams rarely win the Superbowl. The precision, lightning quick timing routes that you saw last week are not so easily duplicated on a cold and soggy grass field. Add the unpredictable winds of New England in January and you get an idea how that can affect a precision passing game.
Despite the challenges the Colt’s will score and probably often. However in case anybody has forgotten our own guy is no stiff. We have seen Brady to often guide his team to the end zone or within field goal distance during the most pressure packed situations. As good as the Colt’s receivers are, there is not a great deal of difference to Brady’s core group. Patten, Branch and Given’s do not have the stellar numbers of the Colt’s group simply because the Patriot offense operates a bit differently.Can you imagine Troy Brown is now a reserve in this group? With the addition of Corey Dillon this year, the club has become a traditional power football team. They run first and force the safeties up in the box and then kill you with a ball thrown down the field. It is no accident that Brady is throwing longer completions this year. Play action has enabled him to get more time and allow longer routes.
The key to the game is the Colt’s defense. They have been playing well of late but they are smallish group that can be bulled by the larger Patriot group. The key to the game will be keeping Manning on the sidelines while the Patriots play ball control offense. This scenario is the one that works best for the Patriots. However if the game becomes a shootout the Patriots are not under gunned in this type of game either.
All in all this should be an entertaining game with the Patriots denying Manning’s quest to bring his team to the next level. My pick. Patriots by 10
