The Circle Game was a 1968 album put out by old New Hampshire folkie Tom Rush. Tom still tours around this neighborhood and can occasionally be seen at the Bull Run in Shirley, Mass. The title tune was written by Joni Mitchell and has a line in it that aptly describes reflecting on the New Year.
We're captive on the carousel of time, We can't return we can only look behind, From where we came, And go round and round and round, In the circle game .
In the spirit of looking behind and prior to any guesses for 2009, I thought I might look at last year's predictions and see what kind of success I enjoyed for 2008. It actually turned out to be a pretty good year as a prognosticator although quite frankly it didn't take much talent to score well on some of the less than bold guesses I made. http://philgallagher.blogspot.com/2007/12/who-knows-where-time-goes.html
We did go into recession and the Fed was behind the curve but they caught up rather rapidly. By December they had cut the Fed Funds rate to all time lows. These actions were ratified by the bond market in general as the thirty year treasury dropped to a stunningly historic low of 2.64% and the ten year was at 2.20%.
Oil prices did fall dramatically this year and gas did fall below 2 dollars. Troop reductions did begin in Iraq and General Patreus continued to be successful in reducing violence in the country. You can tell just how successful he has been by the lack of coverage by the news media. The Globe and the New York Times won't report any thing positive on Iraq until Obama takes office, then they will trumpet his diplomatic skills.
I missed on the Patriots winning the Super Bowl and the Red Sox winning the World Series but I did have the Celtics winning the NBA championship. I was close on the other two since the Patriots lost in the Super Bowl and the Sox were within a couple of runs in game 7 of the league championship from going to the World Series.
I almost completely wiffed on the presidential election having only John McCain on the ticket for the two parties and did not have Obama on the radar screen as the winner.
Legalized gambling was not approved, marijuana was decriminalized and the income tax was not repealed. I was right on all three except the margin of defeat on the income tax was much larger than I anticipated.
Global warming is starting to lose a little bit of its cache but Hollywood still continued the theme. A great science fiction story, The Day the Earth Stood Still was ruined by having Klatu come to destroy humans because of our bad carbon footprint.
Pakistan didn't have elections but Musharaff is deposed and the tribal lands are coming under increasing attacks. Whitey Bulger wasn't caught and gold did come down in price.
On the wrong side I had Amyn Al Swahiri and Osama Bin Laden being caught or killed. Swahiri is still alive but I am betting Osama has gone to paradise.
So here goes some guesses for 2009.
1. The stock market will begin to recover sometime after the second quarter. Corporate earnings will be disastrous and won't begin to turn around until the third quarter. The Dow will finish over 11,000 in 2009.
2. The world will turn to the U.S. to solve the pirate problem.
3. Castro will pass away and Obama will loosen the foolish U.S. embargo on Cuba.
4. The news will get better. Things won't be much better in general but the news reports will be better because Bush will be gone and the media will want to give Obama every break they can.
5. Mahmoud Ahdmadinejad will lose re-election in Iran. Declining oil prices will bring great pressure on the clerics in Iran.
6. There will be social unrest in China and demonstrations over rising unemployment.
7. The Celtics will repeat as NBA champions and the Yankees will have an enormous payroll and will not win the World Series.
8. Caroline Kennedy will continue on her speaking tour in pursuit of the senate seat in New York. Each time she opens her mouth she will sound more and more like a California freshman valley girl and she will not get the appointment.
9. The state budget deficit will approach 2 billion in Massachusetts, local aid will be cut and we will see an increase in taxes and cuts in state and municipal employees.
10.,The Boston Globe will be sold for a very small price and its strangle hold on opinion in the commonwealth and its influence in general will continue to weaken.
11. I won't lose ten pounds.
Happy New Year!
