Before I join the many Americans putting together prognostications for the future it is time to grade last year's completely random and inept guesses as to what might have transpired in 2009. Here for the record is the list.
1. The stock market did start to turn around after the third quarter and earnings were disastrous. I had predicted a finish over 11,000 however came up about 500 points short.
2. The pirate problem became even greater and of course the U.S. deployed more warships than anybody else in trying to deal with the problem. Score one for us as a couple of pirates bit the dust when they foolishly exposed their heads to three Navy Seals who promptly delivered three shots and three dead pirates.
3. Castro did not pass away. This guy has more resiliency than a plastic six pack holder floating in the ocean.
4. The news coverage of the presidency did get better. Obama had a longer than usual honeymoon and still is using the prior administration as an excuse for what is still going wrong.
5. Ahdmadinejad did win re-election or did he? The streets in Tehran are in chaos at the moment. The opposition has grown more bold and is actually reported to be mocking the supreme leader. Tehran has responded with threats to crush the opposition without mercy. How do you think that will work out in the long run?
6. There was increased social unrest in China according to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Six different outbreaks occurred including one with over 200 deaths.
7. It was a bad year year for Boston fans as the Celtics did not repeat as the hated Lakers took the crown. Even worse was the Evil Empire finally spending it's way to a World Series Championship.
8. Caroline Kennedy did not get the New York senatorial appointment replacing Hillary Clinton. After hearing her interviews it came as no surprise.
9. The state budget deficit did soar to nearly two billion and taxes were raised but the big surprise was not that local aid was cut but state employees actually increased! If I was Governor Patrick I would better be prepared to defend that bit of nonsense
10. The Boston Globe was not sold for a very small price. Some would argue that the New York Times would actually have to pay someone to take it off their hands. The ever supportive of organized labor Times managed to use on the Globe employees some of the worst union busting tactics seen here in a very long time. Of course, the Globe editorial board was silent on that topic.
11. Lastly of course was my most accurate prediction. I didn't lose ten pounds.
So what is in store for 2010?
The Red Sox, Celtics and Patriots will all win championships. You know I am an insufferable Boston homer so what did you expect?
Samuel Huntington was prescient in Clash of Civilization, as he predicted where ever Islam intersects with other cultures there will be conflict. This trend is going to continue and will likely break into open hostility in a number of places. Two possible combatants are India and Pakistan. Another repeat of the Mumbai bombings and India most certainly will retaliate.
Somalia will definitely be a target if there is continued attacks on shipping. At some point the world will tire of paying ransom and actually do something. Yemen may also be a target if Al Qaeda continues to grow in influence there.
There will be more incidents in the U.S. such as Fort Hood and the Northwest Airline flight 253. Perhaps water boarding will make a comeback in 2010?
This may not be the year but the time is getting close to some sort of action on Iran's nuclear program. There may not be a full out aerial assault by the Israelis but perhaps a mysterious explosion will damage the Iranian centrifuges.
President Obama's strategy of reaching out to the various regimes such as Iran, North Korea, Syria, Venezuela and Cuba has been unsuccessful so far and will fail miserably in 2010. If he lets John Kerry visit Iran we will know for sure the man is in well over his head.
Cap and trade and other carbon trading schemes are dead in the United States. Our own Massachusetts duo of Rep. Ed Markey in the house and John Kerry in the senate are co sponsors of climate change legislation with Rep. Henry Waxman and Sen. Barbara Boxer. You can bet their colleagues can read the poll numbers that most Americans simply do not believe the climate alarmism any more.
The damage that has been done to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by the East Anglia whistle blower is irreversible. Rajendra Pauchuri has been the chairman of the IPCC since 2002 and this will be his last year as he is likely to be a victim of his own investments in climate politics.
Deval Patrick may win re-election but it will be by a fraction of a whisker and only because Tim Cahill as an independent and Charles Baker as the republican will evenly divide the opposition so that Deval's 34% approval will win.
Martha Coakley will win the senate seat and provide a completely uninspiring performance as senator eclipsed only by her completely uninspiring effort as attorney general.
The democrats will suffer a significant defeat in the mid terms. Not enough to reverse the majorities but still enough to still the idea of any more radical swing to the left.
Government takeover of health care may come about by legislation but it is certainly no shoe in to be fully implemented at this point. There is enough public opposition so there may be a significant revolt amongst the states.This may result in many mandates in the plan landing in the U.S. supreme court. Health care legislation should really be called the lawyer full employment act, primarily because there is no tort reform and now there will be so many more cases to pursue.
Tiger Woods will lose a hundred million in a divorce, He will be back on the golf tour simply because the big business of golf is in dire straits without him. The drop off in public interest without Woods at a tournament is enormous.
President Obama will play more golf and attend more fundraisers in one year than Bush did in four. Quite frankly I hope for all our sakes it is a quiet year and that the president has plenty of time for golf and more importantly that the Secret Service is more diligent in preventing party crashers ( or others) from getting near our leader.
Sarah Palin will continue to be the target of that nasty spinster, Maureen Dowd. You have to love the way Palin makes the likes of Keith Olberman, Rachel Maddow, Ed Schultz and Chris Matthews on the Left go crazy. They ask the themselves how could the American people possibly like her more than them!
Interest rates will not start to move up until late in the second quarter. The Fed Funds rate will finish the year under two perccent. Unemployment will continue to be a challenge to the president and will not get below 8%. Inflation will remain relatively low however the ten (to 4.10%) and thirty (to 5.20%) year treasuries will jump in yield. After all, how much more debt can congress get us into and how much more U.S. paper will the Chinese buy?
It is a new year and a new decade but the challenges facing us on a local, state and national level have not changed. So to do the every day challenges of life in general remain the same. So damn the torpedoes, open the champagne and warm the butter for the lobster. Happy New Year all you wonderful American knuckleheads!
