Perhaps the reason for the tightening in the race is that Coakley has been so sure of her election prospects that she has been acting as if it is more like a coronation than an election.
In this article, the New York Times points out that Martha hardly even campaigned last month. This week she did get some splashy front page space in the Globe as the Kennedy family rolled out to endorse her at the Medford senior citizens center. This was hardly unexpected for two reason:
The Globe already has its endorsement of Coakley printed the moment she announced even though they sought some objective cover with the endorsement of the impossible to elect Alan Khazei in the primary.
The Kennedy's endorsed Coakley because they had no alternative. Rather than be king makers in this election they are simply falling in line as good party soldiers. No one at the affair admitted that Coakley had trumped all the Kennedy's and diminished their political weight in the state when she had brazenly made plans to run before Teddy stopped breathing. She didn't care that Teddy wanted Vicki to succeed him and she didn't care what Joe's plans were.
One irony was the selection of the senior center as the announcement site. A center piece of the health care reform legislation is the reduction by $500 billion of Medicare reimbursement. This is sure to hit seniors in a couple of ways. Since there is already much grumbling from the medical community some doctors and hospitals will surely stop accepting Medicare patients. The Mayo
Clinic took just such an action last week.
Going forward the demands on the system for elderly care will dramatically increase with the now aging baby boomers soon to join the ranks of the retirees in huge numbers. Are services likely to be rationed simply because of demand outstripping supply even without considering the effect of mandatory health care?
Coakley's lazy attitude in trying to back in to the post and Brown closing the gap has national implications. With the recent announcement of a number of democrats not seeking re-election, most prominently are Dorgan and Dodd, the Massachusetts race is getting more attention as a bellwether for the national mid terms in November.
Brown is using a very effective strategy in focusing on what are the nation's most pressing concerns of jobs and the deficit. Coakley's and the democrat's main issues of health care and climate change are way down the list.
The fact that Coakley will be the 60th democratic senate vote is not lost on any politically astute observers in the nation. Ardent opponents of the health care legislation will not be voting Coakley. Only 59 votes would not be able to invoke cloture and a long filibuster of the legislation might mean its death.
There is no way of telling for sure what all of this will mean until the results are in. There is however a formula for disaster brewing for the democrats nationally if this race is closer than a double digit blow out for Coakley.
If the Obama agenda isn't soundly endorsed here in Massachusetts then you can be sure it is wearing thin through out the nation. With each passing day the majority will weaken its resolve and the opposition will become more emboldened.
God forbid Coakley loses, it is likely that Obama would be considered a lame duck the very next day.
