I think the primary reason is that Coakley's brain trust has run a very lackadaisical campaign, acting as though it was hers because she showed up.
There is now no doubt that Scott Brown is a formidable candidate in his own right. His performance in the last debate was very good and he had one of those sound bites that resonate with the voter. It occurred when responding to this question by moderator David Gergen,
"Mr. Brown, let me ask you this question, it's on a lot of people's minds. You said you're for health care reform, just not this bill. We know from the Clinton experience that if this bill fails, it could well be another 15 years before we see health care reform efforts in Washington. Are you willing under those circumstances to say, 'I'm going to be the person. I'm going to sit in Teddy Kennedy's seat and I'm going to be the person who's going to block it for another 15 years'?
Brown's reply was a quick one which even Gergen admitted stuffed him. "Well with all due respect it is not a Kennedy seat and it is not the Democrat's seat, it's the people's seat." It doesn't hurt that according to the polls a growing number of people do want health care reform stymied. House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel admitted as much yesterday
That rebellion is being felt in this statewide race by a huge influx of outside money. Brown ads and articles about Brown have appeared on Drudge and other websites with exhortations to donate to his campaign. Reportedly, that resulted in over 1.4 million dollars in donations in a 24 hour period from over 17,000 individuals. Coakley matched that to some degree with a huge media purchase by the Service Employee Union International.
The latest Coakley ad has hurt her for a couple of reasons, the obvious one is that Massachusetts is misspelled. The ad continues with the obligatory pictures and attack on Cheney and Bush however it also includes a photo of Rush Limbaugh with his right hand raised. Red Mass group immediately attacked the picture as a visual Nazi reference.
Limbaugh responded with a blistering attack on Coakley. One has to wonder who advised Coakley on this strategy? The old adage of let sleeping dogs lie is appropriate here, Limbaugh has an enormous listening audience and what good did it do for Coakley to inject him into the race?
The poll numbers released over the last couple of days and are all over the place in terms of predictions. One had Brown up by 1% another had Coakley ahead by 15%. One thing is obvious to this political gadfly and that is visibility. Republicans are a relative rare breed in Massachusetts and their campaign visibility is generally low, that is not the case with Brown. There are many Brown signs and in a good many places considered democratic strongholds. As a very political friend of mine says, "signs don't vote", but when a republican has a lot of them it certainly is note worthy.
Generally speaking, when a statewide election is over it quickly fades into distant memory. Because of the timing and because of the national implications of the 60th senate vote and the Obama agenda, this one may be talked about for a long time.
